25NL TP vs strong turn lead

I'm opening A9o in MP3 because CO/BTN are super nitty and don't steal much.

Villain 47/11 over 17 hands:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($15.91)
BB ($9.84)
UTG ($12)
UTG+1 ($3.85)
MP1 ($24.30)
MP2 ($13.25)
Hero (MP3) ($29.64)
CO ($5)
Button ($28.09)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif
4 folds, Hero bets $0.85, 3 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BB calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.20) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
BB bets $4.20, Hero ???

Total pot: $4.20 | Rake: $0.21

but what about the blinds?
when you get called, are you up against a strong range or a weak range? you need to include both of the blinds into your preflop decision
if this guy calls then it's probably a weak range, although over 17 hands we can't be sure

treat it like getting check-raised and fold

fold, pretty much any Ace has you beat.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DaD01ng

fold, pretty much anything has you beat.

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obviously this is a fold. No one does this with a crap hand.

I put him squarely on 77 or 88 given your reads. Possible 78s. He likes your flop bet and wants to let you value town yourself. But that spade just made things tricky so he's betting full pot. Two flush draws turn his play fast. If he's a nit he'd have folded 55 on the flop.

At these stakes, a large bet like this is at the very LEAST 2 pair.