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Villain is 9/4 with an ATS of 13% over 550 hands. He has a fold to 3bet of 85% (11/13).
No other relevant info other than he appears to cbet often, though the sample size is small.
So how do you guys think we should play here to maximize?
Options:
-call
-3bet/fold
-3bet/call
-3bet/jam
UTG+1 ($25.35)
MP1 ($31.85)
Preflop: Hero is Button with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif
3 folds, MP2 bets $1, 2 folds, Hero ?
I don't mind either just calling, coz his range is pretty strong anyway - take a gamble on a low flop or 3bet/folding. It really depends if he would fold QQ/JJ pre and what he's like at folding overpairs postflop. a) If he's the raiser or b) he calls a 3bet. Does he auto stack off overpair in both situations? Just one or what? I particularly mean JJ and QQ
3bet/call seems totally retarded to me because the only thing it does is give AK a chance to either A) suck out on us or B) save their stack if their hand misses.
i could see calling given certain table conditions-- if it's 6max and all the other players are likely to fold behind you either based on reads or stats is the only time i do this play. maybe i'd do it a lot more given our opponent though i don't know.
i hate all of our 3bet/(anything) options because it blows butthole to be 4bet by a nit with KK or QQ (which is probably the exact reason you started this thread).
i'm sure you don't care what i have to say because you're more knowledgable than i, but i thought i'd get the discussion started before the FTR regs showed up
I just realized how much this depends on how he plays JJ and QQ.
I strongly doubt he will ever 4bet JJ or QQ. So his 4bet range is literally KK+. We have 22% equity vs his 4bet range, so jamming over the 4bet would be a huge mistake.
If he raises 66+, AJs+,AQo+:
He will fold: 66-TT + JJ 1/2 the time = 33 combo's, AJs-AQs = 8 combo's, AQo = 12 combo's, AKs = 2 combo's, AKo = 8
Totol combo's he folds: 63
I suppose we could assume he calls JJ 1/2 the time or something to a 3bet and QQ all of the time. So that's 9 combo's he calls with. 7 combo's 4bet us.
With JJ-QQ though he'll just c/f any A/K high flops unless he hits a set and might even fold at some point if we try getting all the chips in regardless of whether there are aces or kings out. But it's hard to say exactly since I haven't seen him in such a situation.
Ok anyway, he's got 79 combo's total in his range, and he folds 63 of them to a 3bet. Therefore he folds 79% of the time (Holy fuck I need to start 3betting nits like this way more often.
Surviva I agree with you that all of our 3bet options kind of blow, folding KK to a 4bet is gross.
Stoved some things:
Here we assume villains 4bet range is KK+, QQ(50% of combinations)
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.587% 54.60% 04.99% 56090922 5127906.00 { KK+, QcQd, QcQh, QhQs }
Hand 1: 40.413% 35.42% 04.99% 36391506 5127906.00 { KK }
Here we assume villains 4bet range is only KK+
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.382% 70.35% 07.03% 50594604 5056266.00 { KK+ }
Hand 1: 22.618% 15.59% 07.03% 11209632 5056266.00 { KK }
Perhaps 3bet/folding isn't all that bad, because:
If he flat calls we know his range is basically JJ-QQ, maybe AK, and we can take him to value town on 9-T high boards etc.
If he 4bet's we know ahead of time that we're completely owned. We risk $3 to save $25*(1-.22), though we gain when he calls instead of 4bets because as stated before, we know we're ahead (according to our assumptions).
'Raising for information' is something I dislike and feel that its incorrect alot of the time, but in this case we allow villain to turn his hand face up by doing it making ours much easier to play. Perhaps this is actually an okay spot to do it...I'll have to look over the section in NLHETAP that covers it again to double check.
I don't disagree with calling pre either, I think that's a good option, and it may get us more value. Either way it's going to be tough to get his stack in without coolering him :/
Assumptions
(1) 4% of hands is {99+, AQs+, AKo} or 44 combos
(2) Folding to a 3bet 85% of time = folding 37 combos, leaving his continuing range at KK+ (7 combos)
(3) If we 3bet, we 3bet to $3 (12bb).
Then:
Calling his open has an immediate EV of:
Call(EV) = (equity)(total pot) - (amount to call)
Call(EV) = (0.68)(2.35) - (1)
Call(EV) = $0.60c
3-Betting his open has an immediate EV of:
3bet(EV) = (%fold)(Ev[fold]) + (%call)(Ev[call])
3bet(EV) = (0.85)(1.35) + (0.15)(-1.6)
3bet(EV) = (1.15) - 0.24
3bet(EV) = $0.91c
Ev[call](3bet) = (equity)(total pot) - (amount)
Ev[call](3bet) = (0.22)(0.35 + 3 + 3) - (3)
Ev[call](3bet) = -$1.60
So it would appear that 3betting has a greater EV than calling. And this is obviously because of fold equity (as always). However, this is the immediate EV of each action. This means that if we 3bet/fold (as we wouldn't have the equity to felt if he shoves), then our 3bet has an EV of $0.91c.
However, us flatting his open has an immediate EV of $0.60c preflop, and in order to be > 3bet/folding we would only need to make another $0.31c postflop, which will be relatively easy seeing as we are beating the majority of his opening range (68% equity), and therefore can get value postflop.
This can be even more easily explained by the fact that if we 3bet we don't fold better, and don't get worse to call (if my assumptions are true), and therefore calling is > 3betting. Maybe not immediately due to fold equity, but calling has greater EV for the entire hand.
*Just a fwiw, my assumptions could be wrong.. But the decision lies exactly on what his range hs and how he plays that range. If he is stacking off with JJ+, then a 3bet/call is easily correct. If he is only continuing to a 3bet with KK+, then a call is clearly correct. If he is calling a 3bet with TT-QQ, AK, and 4betting KK+, then 3bet/folding is likely correct, but calling is still +EV also*
Wow thanks alot for writing that up all organized. I just kind of went off on multiple tangents here.
I like the addition of color and bolding as well.
lol now we lock thread?
call with monsters, 3b bluff with everything