Decent hand deep & he's repping thin

Villain seems to be a thinking aggro. Running 26/25/5.5 over 70 hands with 25% 3bet & 33% A2S. He has opened 3/9 times from UTG but only 1/9 MP. I've been rather nitty as yet and folded to 2 3bets OOP from another TAG. What can he expect me to fold here this deep? I think everyone knows what I have. I kinda think I've been had, as I call BS on him having QQ+ here the way he's been raising UTG.

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($90.65)
BB ($120)
UTG ($408.85)
MP ($200)
Hero (CO) ($368)
Button ($218)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A:spade: , Q:heart:
UTG bets $6, MP calls $6, Hero calls $6, 3 folds

Flop: ($21) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
UTG bets $14, 1 fold, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($49) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $38, Hero calls $38

River: ($125) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $50, UTG raises $350.85 (All-In), Hero

EDIT: I thought it would be more interesting if I hid the cards, but apparently this HH sucks as evidenced by lack of comments. My hole cards now included.

Gotta fold barring some feel/reads that you haven't disclosed. most of the time this is qq+ or at least a Q and I would not call here looking for a split.

On the river you have to check behind if he is a thinking player, he knows he can basically own you in this spot.

Is this really a check behind here? God that feels nitty, but after a reevaluation I'm not sure what he 2 barrels here that I beat & can get value out of on that river since a Q isn't folding.

Yes it is a clear check behind. Did you call? (You can wait on results, just curious if you did or not and what your reasons were)

c/b u say? Man...it would feel extremely nitty, but thinking about this a little more, His range is nuts/air bt much more weighted towards nutters......i guess it's the best option against a thinker.

if you don't expect a raise, you've made the ONLY mistake possible
if he folds we don't need to make any decisions
if he calls the hand is over and we don't need to make any decisions
so when you bet the only thing you should think about is what to do vs. a raise

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

if you don't expect a raise, you've made the ONLY mistake possible
if he folds we don't need to make any decisions
if he calls the hand is over and we don't need to make any decisions
so when you bet the only thing you should think about is what to do vs. a raise

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So is that your reasoning for a fold, or checking back the river?

Naturally I folded (especially this deep), but I really wanted to call. The original question is what range can the villain expect a nit(albeit limited read) to fold? Do you think he is trying to push me off a Q? Do you think he thinks anyone folds that boat or do you think he is valuing AA-QQ here? Of course he might be trying to scoop a split.
I mean there is 1/2 a buy in in the middle already & I have to believe he has one of the Top 3 hands in poker after raising 3/9 times UTG. His EP range just doesn't jive with a positionally aware opponent.

he doesn't expect you to fold imo it looks like you have a queen and I doubt he'd expect you to fold a split so I don't think he's really bluffing with anything like a queen or have complete air for some reason

but really you should have an idea of what you'll do vs. a raise when you bet regardless of what you think in this particular hand

I would not call without AA

yeah id fold. good line by him

id fold for sure, but wtf @ checking behind her mixchange?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bode

id fold for sure, but wtf @ checking behind her mixchange?

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I think I actually like a check behind vs a decent player here too actually. It's so obvious we have a queen here, it's not like he double barreled 9s and will c/c expecting a double float.

nooo.. never ever check behind here. most regs at 200nl arent good enough to c/r bluff this river or c/r KK+

i think

Any critique to my river bet sizing, if I'm trying to get called by worse?

Against the villain mentioned I'd check river.

my god i keep reading these HH all wrong :P

check behind isnt that bad at all

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alexos

my god i keep reading these HH all wrong :P

check behind isnt that bad at all

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Stop doing that! This downswing is making me question my play enough as it is. The last thing I need to contribute is the forum experts telling me I'm an idiot!!!!! AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alexos

my god i keep reading these HH all wrong :P

check behind isnt that bad at all

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Stop doing that! This downswing is making me question my play enough as it is. The last thing I need to contribute is the forum experts telling me I'm an idiot!!!!! AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH

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ya srsly i should go back to not posting a lot but actually reading the HH well :D

but i think this is more fun

I mean I agree with feeling mega nitty not betting on this river, but I don't think there's much value at all.

If there was a FD on the flop I'd like a bet much more on this river than as played on this board which had no real draw anywhere.

If he's good he should probably be c/bombing a Q on us here even, especially after our sizing, since we can't ever have > Qx.

Agree with griff.

Given that most people would never plan to c/r this river and you only need to be right 33% of the time i call. Honestly it seems pretty FoS to me. If it was an instashove id be less inclined to call.

I also agree with the check behind group (unless you think for some reason you will induce this).

But over half of the time when we're right we just split the pot here, so 2:1 on our call doesn't look so hot.

Not to squeeze every ounce of value from this thread, but what if the river came a Q and he checked to me? River sizing? I would prob. bet $50 still or shove if I thought he was capable of feeling leveled.