10NL: AK 3-bet pot, c-bet?

Villain is 64/2/2.2 over 50ish hands. Fold to c-bet is 50% but over a very small sample. 3-bet is 6% but again not over a large enough sample to really be of much use. I have no specific reads/notes on him. I run into this situation a lot. Do I want to c-bet this kind of flop? His range is massive here, including a lot of PPs I doubt he'd fold. I have a hard time c-betting this, is this a mistake?

Absolute/UB Cereus No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($4.61)
Hero (SB) ($10.59)
BB ($11.57)
UTG ($18.02)
MP ($10.20)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif
2 folds, Button calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.50, BB raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4, BB calls $3

Flop: ($8.10) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero ????

1. He looks passive 64/2. That puts his PFR range prolly around TT+,AKs,AKo. I'm guessing his 3b is at 6% 'cause he's had some nice cards in the sample you're looking it.
2. I doubt w/ a 2% PFR he's positionally aware... the above range is 3% assuming he might be a little bit... and raising you a little wider 'cause he'll have position post, plus it's prolly BvB which is a little wider usually aswell.
3. He calls your 4bet... meh I'm not sure this means much given how passive this guy is. I'm guessing that he's pretty much always continuing with that tight of a PF raising range. But maybe discount AA-KK as a) you got blockers and b) there's a chance he'd come over the top with them.
4. That leaves his 4-bet calling range weighted towards JJ-TT and if we want to get a little liberal... AQs+, AKo

So stove it... versus that range you have 35% equity on that board, an $8 pot and effective remaining stacks of around 6.50... so basically one more bet. If you shove you'll be betting $6.50 to win $21, which is 31%. You need fold equity to make this work, so check/calling is out IMHO. So it's shove or fold... and with a fold to cbet of 50%, and pretty much most of his range looking weaker than it did pre-flop (TT-JJ no set, AK a whiff)... I think you've got at least enough to make up the necessary 6% to warrant the shove.

I shove and let god sort the rest out.... :shock:

i'd probably fold pre against this villain

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sarbox68

1. He looks passive 64/2. That puts his PFR range prolly around TT+,AKs,AKo. I'm guessing his 3b is at 6% 'cause he's had some nice cards in the sample you're looking it.
2. I doubt w/ a 2% PFR he's positionally aware... the above range is 3% assuming he might be a little bit... and raising you a little wider 'cause he'll have position post, plus it's prolly BvB which is a little wider usually aswell.
3. He calls your 4bet... meh I'm not sure this means much given how passive this guy is. I'm guessing that he's pretty much always continuing with that tight of a PF raising range. But maybe discount AA-KK as a) you got blockers and b) there's a chance he'd come over the top with them.
4. That leaves his 4-bet calling range weighted towards JJ-TT and if we want to get a little liberal... AQs+, AKo

So stove it... versus that range you have 35% equity on that board, an $8 pot and effective remaining stacks of around 6.50... so basically one more bet. If you shove you'll be betting $6.50 to win $21, which is 31%. You need fold equity to make this work, so check/calling is out IMHO. So it's shove or fold... and with a fold to cbet of 50%, and pretty much most of his range looking weaker than it did pre-flop (TT-JJ no set, AK a whiff)... I think you've got at least enough to make up the necessary 6% to warrant the shove.

I shove and let god sort the rest out.... :shock:

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Wow, thanks for the very comprehensive reply dude. Now I need to be able to figure this shit out on the table in 20 seconds. :roll:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AFchung

i'd probably fold pre against this villain

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nah, bro, call pre to flushmine