25NL: River Play with Reads

Villain was 52/46/7 at the time over a period of 112 hands. I have a few notes on down on the villain:

- 2 barrels often (big), then shut down river w/ medium pp on 1 over (turn Q) dry board. (May 4, 09) -> has shown up with air after 2 barrel and checked river
- Floats ip to my cbet, folds to 2/3 turn (May 4, 09)
- 3/4 River w/ TP2ndK (May 4, 09)
- 4bet shove AJo (Jun 1, 09)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($42.98)
MP ($14.60)
Button ($25)
Hero (SB) ($25)
CO ($43.82)
UTG ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif
2 folds, CO bets $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($3) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets $2.13, Hero calls $2.13, 1 fold

Turn: ($7.26) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5.17, Hero calls $5.17

River: ($17.60) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero ???

The original plan was to c/c 2 streets and probably c/f river since the villain's river betting frequency is really low and that he likes to 2 barrel. But now that I hit my set on the river, how much should I vbet? I don't really want to c/r, since he's only going to bet with tp or better, in which case, I might get his stack by betting anyways. Betting I get to extract value of those mid pairs.

Another note, I played a hand 3-4 hands prior to this (against a different villain, but on the same table) where I bet, c/c, and made a defensive bet of ~1/3 pot with tpgk. Not sure if he's that observant, but if I bet 1/3 pot, I might rep tpgk.

- 3bet pre for value.

- River

your options are to open ship, or to C/R.
Considering your notes, we shove river. He is not trippling his air, as many fish will if you c/c

I didn't 3bet pre since I saw him 4bet shove with AJo a few orbits ago and showed his hand. Since he was 4betting light, I thought I'd 3bet a tighter range to go for stacks. I had position on him (not on this hand but he was 2 to my right), and I thought I would probably have better chances to get his stack than 3betting oop. TT I thought was a bit borderline, but I'd probably jam with him with JJ+, AK. Is my adjustment wrong/am I being too weak-tight? I also felt that it might be okay to play TT for set value and low boards since he's an aggro donk.

Isn't c/c, c/c, donk shove super strong though? I thought of c/r river being the best option to get his stack but I felt that he'd probably check a weak tp or QQ/JJ in this spot on the river, in which case I'd lose river value. I wasn't sure what amount to bet here.

Also, is c/c 2 streets on a low board a bad plan given this villain? I thought it'd be the best way to ensure 2 streets of value, rather than betting hand having him shut down with air.

just open ship and let him figure our how to pay you off
pray he hit the turn