10NL : Am I afraid of monsters under the bed ?

Villian Stats : (VP$IP/PFR [Street Aggression] 3-bet%)

24/8 [3 2 1] 5% over 207 hands

Other Notes

Limp/call% = 57%

My Thoughts And Questions

I have the limp call statistic on my HUD, use it to adjust my iso ranges along with the fold to c-bet%.

Hands he would raise my flop bet with possbily :
67s 78s JsTs 44-55

Cant think of any hands he would raise here that are in his range that i have beat.

So is this a fold ?

Post Analysis With Stove

He limps 16% of hands which i guess would be (using PStove) :
99-22,A9s-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

He only calls with 57% of that range which is aroiund 9% :
99-22,A9s-A2s,KJs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s

Against his limp/call range i am a 4 to 1 favourite and thus the c-bet make sense.

When he raises the flop tho i cant think of any hands he does this we have beat.

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

BTN: $10.90
SB: $10.10
Hero (BB): $23.35
UTG: $10.40
MP: $7.45
CO: $13.05

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with A:heart: A:spade:
UTG calls $0.10, 3 folds, SB calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.60, UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.30) 4:spade: J:heart: 5:spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, UTG raises to $2.20, Hero?

Hey... maybe he read all those threads floating around here about how you're supposed to raise your draws to balance your line etc. etc. Or maybe he really likes is KJs/QJs/AJs hand and thinks YOUR cbet is full of crap or are pushing a draw.

If he's living the "raise your draws" mantra (and there are a lot of them out there... draws that is, not mantras.... pretty much the same one of those repeated frequently....) jamming the pot is win-win 'cause he'll either fold and you take down a meh pot on a board that could get sig uglier on the Turn or call incorrectly and get money in bad.

If he's really sitting on 44 or 55 or 45 (assuming he's raising JJ pre-) then meh... you still got a few outs.

The other option is to call his flop raise and shove the turn on a non-draw card.

Either way, I'm sure as hell not folding to this.

Oh... and bet more on the Flop.... I'd go close to pot-size which would make his raise mean a little more.... plus maybe set me up to get it in when the obv draws brick.

Well we can discount AsJs as i got the As.

With him folding 43% of his limping range do we think KJs QJs 45s are still there ? Sure maybe this villain adjust his limp/call range because he has position on us. Dunno if he thinking so much tho.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Evilpopcorn

Well we can discount AsJs as i got the As.

With him folding 43% of his limping range do we think KJs QJs 45s are still there ? Sure maybe this villain adjust his limp/call range because he has position on us. Dunno if he thinking so much tho.

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Dude... you have 200 hands on this guy. The only stats that are worth sh!t over that sample are VPIP, PFR and Total Aggression. Everything else is pretty much situationally crap.

Props to you for doing the thinking, but don't overthink numbers that are just flat out statistically insignificant in that sample. You will draw incorrect conclusions...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Evilpopcorn

When he raises the flop tho i cant think of any hands he does this we have beat.

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You raised 6bb PF, then only bet 8 bb after the flop. He could be raising with top pair, especially if he thinks you have AK.

His range on the flop probably looks like JTo+, KTs+, 44, 55.

Considering the unlikelihood of him limp calling with JJ, 45, J4, J5, you've got 6 combinations of hand you're worried about vs a hundred you're not worried about. So why do you think he can't have a hand you beat? do you know for sure he's a nit? If you've got a read that he only does this with sets you can find a better spot, otherwise ship it.

Pretty gay spot but I think I would call and try to get it in on a non-scary turn. The biggest thing here is if we can limp with some jacks and then raise on the flop.

call and see what he does on the turn

Yeah you definately are afraid of monsters, that is a push for me. You'll have the best hand a lot of the time. The only hand I can put him on that beats you is 4-4 or 5-5. I feel he would have raised with J-J and would have folded 4-5, J-5, or J-4 preflop. There is also teh possibilty that he is raising a flush draw so pushing would be the good move to give him bad odds. Chances are, you have him crushed any way you look at it so it's not a matter of whether you have the best hand or not, it's how are you going to get MAX profit from the hand.

definitely do not push, unless you want all his air to fold and his 2nd best hands. with those hands we want to let him think he still has initiative. By shoving he folds these hands

all his combo draws were getting it in anyway, so dont really worry about flatting and seeing a scary turn card