AA vs Turn aggression and a passive player

At this point I had 16 hands of history but had a lot more against him after this one. He ran 56/8/.5 during the session
He limp/called lots and didnt bet or call unless he had something.

So he was passive except that after this hand he did try to bluff me on a board that had 4 to a straight, except that I had it so it obviously didnt work.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP) ($3.96)
Villain (Button) ($2.42)
SB ($2.48)
BB ($2.67)
UTG ($1.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif
1 fold, Hero bets $0.08, Villain calls $0.08, SB calls $0.07, BB calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.32) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.28, Villain calls $0.28, 2 folds

Turn: ($0.88) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, Villain raises to $2.06 (All-In), Hero ?

I dont put QQ+ in his range often b/c he prob would've raised pf...but its possible. With his all-in on the turn I just dont see him doing this with something that I beat. I figure his range is JJ, 33, 66, 55, 47, 36, 35, 56. I don't know if he would push with AJ or KJ...
Is he capable of a semibluff with an OESD? I guess....

This should be a fold given his usual weak tendancies post flop?

Listen to Robb lol

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vinland

I dont put QQ+ in his range often b/c he prob would've raised pf...but its possible. With his all-in on the turn I just dont see him doing this with something that I beat. I figure his range is JJ, 33, 66, 55, 47, 36, 35, 56. I don't know if he would push with AJ or KJ...
Is he capable of a semibluff with an OESD? I guess....

This should be a fold given his usual weak tendancies post flop?

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Snap value call. What about AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9, TT-77, 44 and hands like 76s that pick up draws on the turn? I think you're reading him for WAY too strong a range, and honestly the stacks are so shallow you can't really get away from this against him if he's only 30/5 and passive.

I wouldn't normally argue with you Robb, but the more I look at this the more I think hero is boned. Passive villain, low AF, raised after two strong leads from hero, I think the best we can hope for are pair+oesd hands or QQ/KK, I don't see villain shoving mid pair or TPGK. Stack sizes warrant a call, but I'm certainly less optimistic than you here.

16 hands is not enough to make that fold. If he's a huge nit over a huge sample, then calling a raise with less than 2 pair becomes spew, but this should be a snap-call.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by oskar

16 hands is not enough to make that fold. If he's a huge nit over a huge sample, then calling a raise with less than 2 pair becomes spew, but this should be a snap-call.

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This, plus there are genuine parts of his range that you beat and, you've already got almost 1/2 the effective stack in the middle. Now is not the time to fold given all of the above.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Lucothefish

I wouldn't normally argue with you Robb, but the more I look at this the more I think hero is boned. Passive villain, low AF, raised after two strong leads from hero, I think the best we can hope for are pair+oesd hands or QQ/KK, I don't see villain shoving mid pair or TPGK. Stack sizes warrant a call, but I'm certainly less optimistic than you here.

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Argue with me whenever I'm wrong. :wink:

I see your point, but if we're bet/folding, the bet sizing is too big. Bet like 1/2 pot if you're folding to a shove. You can also check/call if you're worried, but I think you're missing value if you do.

I'm not folding, and I think as played the river call is ++EV.

you're probably beat, but dude its only like a dollar :)