Pick-a-part #1

I need to bring more rigor to my sh!t. And forcing reads and ranges is where I'm gonna start. So I'm gonna start posting some hands and walking through my thinking now, which may or may not be the same as when I played them, and hopefully some other folks'll chime in.

Figure if it's good practice for me, might be interesting to someone else in the BC... or not -- but f-k it, it's only server space....

so I'll post 'em here until someone tells me to move it elsewhere....

Vil 33/23/2.0 over 476 3b 5%, not positionally aware (PFR 25-35 from all positions)
UTG limp range: 22-88,A2s-A8s,K4s-K8s,A5o-A9o,K8o-K9o,low-mid SC stuff
calls my Bu Raise in a 3way pot, figure range is now: 22-88,A2s-A8s,K4s-K8s,SCs

PSB donk on the flop w/ no flush or straight draws. Range is now: Axs,77, possibly some lower pps trying to push out a whiffed KQ/KJ/QJ/T9/KT kind of button steal range and maybe some bluff.

I squash his Ax range, and pps. Only thing in his range that I lose to is 77.

1. Was raising this a mistake? I think in retrospect that it was. I beat just about his entire range, and raising risks folding out the pps that may continue for another street and maybe even the low Axs. 77 I'm dead to. Part of my original reason was to make this heads-up, but think calling is the better option, or just min-raising which would prolly accomplish the same thing.

Once he shoves over the pps are gone... except 77. Assuming the full Axs range does this (A2s-A8s) I have 56% equity so an easy call. However, this guys not a maniac based on the sum of his stats and a solid winrate over the albeit sample here. Assuming he considers a chunk of my range also includes Ax, I think I can discount the Axs.

2. How much should I discount the Axs as it makes a big difference in my equity? (limit it to A8s-A7s and I only have 33% equity...)
3. With no reads, how much credit should I be giving a bluff stacking off this deep?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($22.56)
BB ($25)
UTG ($35.33)
UTG+1 ($41.15)
CO ($24.85)
Hero ($48.36)

Dealt to Hero A:heart:Q:club:

UTG calls $0.25, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.10, SB calls $1, fold, UTG calls $0.85,

FLOP ($3.55) 7:heart:A:diamond:A:club:

check, UTG bets $3, Hero raises to $10, SB folds, UTG raises to $34.23 (AI), Hero calls $24.23,

TURN ($72.01) 7:heart:A:diamond:A:club:J:heart:

RIVER ($72.01) 7:heart:A:diamond:A:club:J:heart:5:heart:

My thoughts on your thoughts:

If you think his donking range is pps fhs and suited aces and you have >50% equity vs the range that continues to a flop raise then go for it. I mean I guess you could try and keep his range wider for the turn and try and get it in there but don't think the raise is bad, and I'm also not sure how often he donks 88-JJ and bets again on the turn. Flatting the flop might have a higher ev but we aren't worried about him folding an ace on the flop. This response is kinda disorganized I'm tires sry but ty for posting your thoughts I dunno why these n00bz haven't responded

1) imo, raise calling ranges are fairly wide if they were the initial bettor. i can see almost his entire betting range (minus air and the really weak hands) to call a raise between 2-3x. they fold most turns and rivers to any continued aggression...but many will convince themselves to call the small raise out of spite or some shit.

2) does he think anything of your range? ya, even ppl at 25nl are thinking about what hands you have...but i dont think any are saying "well, hes 3 times as many combos of ax than 88+...". I think he can easily say you could have TT+ here and stack off with A2. He is probably aware that 2 aces on the board and one in his hand shrinks the likelihood you have one as well...so he'd probably lean more towards the pairs if anything.

3)he's almost never bluffing here. he will always have 77, QQ+, Ax (not considering preflop action).

other things:

i dont think he folds out his axo to a button range if he limped them utg. especially not the larger ones. maybe if you were raising from another position...but most villains just seem to know that button ranges are wider than others from television. if he continues with k4s-k8s as well...then i dont think he folds k8-k9o either...or at least continues with them some percent of the time. this is somewhat irrelevant though as they arent in his flop range.

also, i think you may be giving too much credit to him being a winning player. perhaps im giving too little credit...idk to be honest...but i really cant see a large portion of winnign players understanding a whole lot about ranges and cominations and blockers etc. they might have a feel...but it could also just as easily be some learned montras hes gotten that happen to work out a good portion of the time. his stats indicating that hes fairly loose and not positionally aware lean me towards this as well as i think anyone that even says the word "range" is positionally aware. like i said, maybe i dont give enough credit to winning players...but i honestly cant see many players understanding that if your range is {a8+, TT+} that theres roughly twice as many ax combinatios.

am i completely off base here ^^ ?

dude I've seen people go crazy with 55 in this spot at first betting because they have a pair, lol and then turning it into a bluff
ship it

if you don't raise it's called "slow-playing" because of the strength of your hand
do not min-raise that makes it unlikely you have a bluff or a curious pp
if you just had a KQ type hand and you were trying to bluff him out you'd raise
if you had 88, you'd call

if you minraise you're repping trips+
a big raise is fine if he realizes you're an aggressive player and tries to mess with you because he thinks you're bluffing
slowplaying is fine too, but it gets better as he's more often to continue on the turn with his bluffs, and I doubt that he would