10NL : Playing OOP and trying not to get value pwned

Villian Stats : (VP$IP/PFR [Street Aggression] 3-bet%)

BTN : 19/10 [4 2 inf] 0% over 149 hands.

My Thoughts And Questions

So villians seems pretty nitty.

So what is his cold calling ranger here vs my MP open. AJs AQ+ 22-JJ perhaps ? I would also think he would 3-bet AK some of the time altho with the low 3bet i am guessing he is calling mostly.

Putting that range into Poker Stove i am a 2 to 1 favourte on flop.

I would think leading out here with a cbet could be bad as it would fold out like almost all the hands i beat and keep in the Ax and 44 hands that have me beat.

So my plan for the hand would be to take a c/c line on flop. If he checked behind on flop i would then lead a turn. If he bet the flop, then i would take a check/fold line on turn.

Does this make sense ?

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

Hero (MP): $10.40
CO: $8.45
BTN: $10.60
SB: $6.75
BB: $5.95
UTG: $14.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with Q:heart: K:heart:
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) K:club: A:spade: 4:diamond: (2 players)
Hero?

first of all, he could easily have QJs/JTs and other SCs in his range

he's not betting 55 here, he's betting Ax and better
the hands that he's betting are going to be like total bluffs like 89s or hands that have you crushed
so if he doesn't take stabs at pots when checked to, he has a hand that's better than yours when he bets

so let's say you check, he bets pot and then you think "man, this guy is a nit, I don't feel like he's bluffing here enough" and fold
wouldn't that be weird to c/f a flop you hit when you'd b/f if you missed?

it would also be weird if you used that reasoning to decide to call despite him infrequently bluffing in this spot


I think you should only c/c flop against people who go lol bet when you check to them, not nits who have a tight betting range
just bet out and let him fold his 55, or hope he has QJ and decides to peel one

Alright i hear what you are saying.

So lets say we now bet on the flop and get called. What is our plan for the turn ?

Probably c/f turn. We're against a nit and his range for calling the flop and firing the turn crushes us.

I can't see us getting any more value out of worse hands on this turn and we wont fold out any aces or better.

Also if he has a hand with SD value such as a weaker king he is likely to check behind and we could consider a small value bet on the river. c/f is good on the turn because we don't get bluffed often at all here and are clearly crushed by his range for betting the turn. Also we can keep weaker SD value hands in to the river where we have more chance of extracting value.