Common Downswing Numbers + Some Questions (Long)

So after grinding through .01/.02 up to .05/.10, I hit my first "big" downswing today (dropped 4 buy-ins before I got too fed up). I don't think I played terribly and actually think I may have saved myself several more buy-ins by folding to what looked like obvious sets (or at least they did a great job representing sets)

1) So first, being newish to cash games, how large can "normal" downswings get? I've seen the number 10 buy-ins thrown around, and I'm sure it depends on how they are dealt with, etc, but I'm just looking for some general numbers.

Next, I got into an interesting spot with AA.

Seat 1: DreamSS ($9.75 in chips)
Seat 2: Wilston Brot ($11.30 in chips)
Seat 3: beixa ($10 in chips)
Seat 5: andyE5001 ($10.20 in chips)
Seat 6: DaNumbaOne ($11.90 in chips)
Seat 7: FATSALI1 ($12.15 in chips)
Seat 8: realbogetti ($8.95 in chips)
Seat 9: uriowi01 ($11.60 in chips)
andyE5001: posts small blind $0.05
DaNumbaOne: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to uriowi01 [As Ah]
FATSALI1: folds
realbogetti: raises $0.20 to $0.30
uriowi01: calls $0.30
DreamSS: folds
Wilston Brot: folds
beixa: folds
andyE5001: folds
DaNumbaOne: calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [6c Tc 5s]
DaNumbaOne: checks
realbogetti: bets $1
uriowi01: calls $1
DaNumbaOne: raises $3 to $4
realbogetti: raises $4.65 to $8.65 and is all-in
uriowi01: raises $2.65 to $11.30 and is all-in
DaNumbaOne: calls $7.30

I had played a number of hands with Numba and was confident I was ahead of his range. The only hand I see bogetti having that has me beat is TT, so I was willing to take this chance.

Taking Numba out of the equation (who had shown the ability to make a BIG bluff in spots like this) does it really look like I'm behind bogetti's range? Realtime I was completely thinking this was AA vs KK vs QQ/AKc

Here are results:
*** TURN *** [6c Tc 5s] [Qc]
*** RIVER *** [6c Tc 5s Qc] [8d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DaNumbaOne: shows [Qd Qh] (three of a kind, Queens)
uriowi01: mucks hand
DaNumbaOne collected $5 from side pot
realbogetti: shows [5c 4c] (a flush, Queen high)


2) Knowing these hands, this is a spot I want to be in, correct? I think I have around 40% equity and am only paying 33% in the main pot and 50% in the side (I am 90% to win the side pot). If i'm missing something big here, can someone point it out?

Looking back through the rest of the session, I got check raised A LOT. Probably close to 20% of the time I was c-betting. I ended up laying down to all but the tightest players (who I thought I had a better chance of me having AA over their KK/QQ rather than a set)

3) Against standard players with reasonable stats, check raises are almost always beating 1 pair hands, aren't they?

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Originally Posted by uriowi01

1) So first, being newish to cash games, how large can "normal" downswings get? I've seen the number 10 buy-ins thrown around, and I'm sure it depends on how they are dealt with, etc, but I'm just looking for some general numbers.

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I'll apologize that I'm not responding to the HH. I'm old and unconverted HHs make my head hurt... (of course, so does techno, 70s porn and Tori Spelling but I digress...)

As for downswings, IMHO it really depends on your style. Putting leaks aside, the more aggressive your play, the bigger your downsings are likely to be, 'cause your pushing more marginal situations. I think (and someone may correct me on this) that 6m will have higher variance than FR.

I've never played higher than $25nl, and am only beating that for 6-7BB/100, but I play a relatively conservative, lower variance style. My biggest downswing over 500K+ hands is prolly 5BIs. And truth be told, my biggest downswings were usually connected to big leaks (i.e. my first stab at $50NL was accompanied by a 4BI donk off...) But I'm sure regs here w/ way more history than I've got can give you better context...

Knowing those hands isn't the most important thing here. The next time you get in a situation like this, they won't have those exact hands the board will be different.

Why didn't you 3bet before the flop?

As for being ahead of Numba's range, a flat call for a small raise behind another caller could be suited connectors and PPs, which love to wake up here with 2pair and sets. What range did you put him on?

It's also kind of hard to tell you if I think you're behind bogetti's range without knowing anything about bogetti. What kind of hands had you seen him raise UTG?

These questions are answered more easily if you 3bet PF, imo.

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Originally Posted by sarbox68

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Originally Posted by uriowi01

1) So first, being newish to cash games, how large can "normal" downswings get? I've seen the number 10 buy-ins thrown around, and I'm sure it depends on how they are dealt with, etc, but I'm just looking for some general numbers.

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I'll apologize that I'm not responding to the HH. I'm old and unconverted HHs make my head hurt... (of course, so does techno, 70s porn and Tori Spelling but I digress...)

As for downswings, IMHO it really depends on your style. Putting leaks aside, the more aggressive your play, the bigger your downsings are likely to be, 'cause your pushing more marginal situations. I think (and someone may correct me on this) that 6m will have higher variance than FR.

I've never played higher than $25nl, and am only beating that for 6-7BB/100, but I play a relatively conservative, lower variance style. My biggest downswing over 500K+ hands is prolly 5BIs. And truth be told, my biggest downswings were usually connected to big leaks (i.e. my first stab at $50NL was accompanied by a 4BI donk off...) But I'm sure regs here w/ way more history than I've got can give you better context...

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I've only played as high as 100NL so I can't really talk for people who play higher, but I don't have downswings
I just have break-even stretches and heaters

I don't know about the downswings but your AA playing is a recipe for
a disaster. At this level(this is what I play) you need to be 3 betting this.
Letting people in cheap will cost you in the long run. You have to ask yourself "what was I trying to accomplish by just calling here?" By 3 betting here you knock out the people with 54s(hopefully).

Either way you were bound to lose this hand to the QQ. But that is just the way poker go's sometimes.

Didn't reraise pre as I was trying to squeeze value. The table was being super tight.

The way bogetti's stats were shaping up, it looked like he had a legit hand (TT+ AK/AQ) I wanted to try to get in on the flop overpair vs overpair.

This was the massive exception to how I play AA, probably the first time I had done this in a week. The way I played my hand preflop is actually one of the reasons I went with it postflop.

One day isnt a downswing, its a bad day. People who refer to any losing session as a downswing are doomed to hate poker.

I cant work out how you could have played AA worse other than folding PF btw.

ya really. you just played bad in this session. this is no downswing.

a 4 buy-in loss isn't a downswing. It's common. 10 buy-in downswings happen pretty frequently if you're a 1-2ptBB/100 winner.

as for the hand. You deserve to lose your whole roll here. 3-bet preflop always unless you hate money. And don't post results. You played awfully.

4 buy-ins in a day? Pfffft.

I've played about 100K hands lifetime, and have had three downswings of more than 10 buy-ins, the worst being an utterly soul-destroying, bankroll-crippling 31 buy-in downswing at 50NL.

I play a pretty aggressive, high variance style - 23/18/4 or so - and there was clearly some pretty bad and tilty play in there because I suck at poker obv. But even at the depths of that downswing my lifetime winrate didn't drop much below 3ptBB/100 so I'm still a winning player overall, at least at the micros.

That should still give you an idea of how bad it can get. Get used to it, or get out of poker.

if you're playing 6max TonyB73 I wouldnt be thinking of 23/18 as a high variance style really.

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Originally Posted by daven

And don't post results. You played awfully.

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Hey, why don't you actually read the post next time. The results led me to another question.