AJ in BB on the bubble, shove?

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05-23-2009, 08:19 PM
rong

AJ in BB on the bubble, shove?

$10 + $1, 10 man SnG on Titan. Blinds are 150/300.

Villain has been pushing a lot for the last few hands and as such I estimate his range as 22+, Ax+, Kx+, Q9+, JTs+. I'm confident I'm well ahead of his range, but not sure if it is correct to shove as I am confident he will call & have no ICM calculator.

Button MichaelHuzzle (6280)
SB tquenzentes (1960)
BB Hero (2805)
UTG conco2 (3955)

Preflop: Hero is in the BB with Ahttp://www.talking-poker.com/templat...es/diamond.gif Jhttp://www.talking-poker.com/templat...mages/club.gif
1 fold, MichaelHuzzle raises to 1200, 1 fold, Hero?????
05-23-2009, 08:46 PM
taipan168

This sounds insane, but unless opp is raising wide and will only call your shove over tight, we have to fold this. Opp is getting better than 2.5 to 1 on the call and because he is the big stack he's still well in the game if he calls and loses.

You're well ahead of his range from a chip equity perspective but once you throw ICM into the mix, it's becomes a fold.

Why don't you get SNG Wiz? If you're serious about SNGs (which it sounds like you are) it is indispensable IMO.
05-23-2009, 10:34 PM
golfguy37

What? If hes been raising every hand, chances are he's way ahead. ANd hes already got 1 BB invested. I would definately make this call.
05-24-2009, 05:20 AM
rong

Thanks Tai, once I move house & have free cash again I am definitely going to get it (should be next week, fingers crossed).

But I had a feeling I should have folded this hence why I asked the question, although I knew I was way ahead (worse still I was super confident he would have a weak dominated Ace) I just thought due to stack sizes this should be a fold.

GOlfguy, the 1 big blind already invested is irrelevant aside from what it does to the current pot size(ie the fact I put it in is irrelevant) all that matters is the total in the pot, my remaining stack size, villlains stack size & the other players stack sizes. You can consider my bigblind like a sunk cost from accounting.
05-24-2009, 05:32 AM
kevster

Quote:

Originally Posted by taipan168

You're well ahead of his range from a chip equity perspective but once you throw ICM into the mix, it's becomes a fold.

+1
05-24-2009, 09:07 AM
golfguy37

1)oh OK, did you end up losing the hand? 2)Would you have gone all in if you weren't on the Bubble?
05-24-2009, 09:24 AM
rong

1) yes he had A5 & hit a straight
2) depends how the extra player changes the chip distribution I guess.

Tai, if he had shoved preflop & turned over A5 before I made the decision, would it still be correct to fold or would this be an insta call then?
05-24-2009, 11:52 AM
majiktiki

Always fold this hand on the bubble, It will just get you in trouble, over and over again.
From experience come this reply.
I always was shoving and the number of times i get smacked by poket jack queens king and even aces, and then dont make the money is about a 7-1 ratio.
fold it.
especially against me LOL
05-24-2009, 05:18 PM
Lance

Quote:

Originally Posted by taipan168

You're well ahead of his range from a chip equity perspective but once you throw ICM into the mix, it's becomes a fold.

100%.

What about AKo, QQ ? Can you anybody let it go through the Wizard ? (my trial version is up :? )
05-24-2009, 06:11 PM
taipan168

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lance

Quote:

Originally Posted by taipan168

You're well ahead of his range from a chip equity perspective but once you throw ICM into the mix, it's becomes a fold.

100%.

What about AKo, QQ ? Can you anybody let it go through the Wizard ? (my trial version is up :? )

From memory, with the ranges that I used (which I think was that opp was raising about 35% of hands which roughly approximated opp's estimate of big stack's range) I think the shove over range was TT+, AK. Whether we shove over wider is read dependent on opp. In a game if opp has been raising very wide my range would be 88+, AQ+.