50NL turn straight, board pairs on river

Player is regular, 120 hands 17/13/3.3. This was the only time so far he showed agression on the turn. I doubt he would raise with a set on the turn, but i also doubt he would valuebet with TJ on the river. 98 perhaps? Am I beating anything else then a bluff? We only need be to good 27% right?

On another note, just shove turn?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($62.65)
MP ($60.47)
Hero (CO) ($85.80)
Button ($51)
SB ($53.30)
BB ($29.40)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif
UTG bets $1.75, MP calls $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($7.50) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($7.50) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP bets $0.50, Hero raises $5, SB raises $16.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $11.50

River: ($41) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
SB bets $24, Hero ?

Total pot: $41

on the turn we're at the top of our range, but we don't have the stone cold nuts
so it's like does he really cold-call JT in the MP? it doesn't seem that likely, but it could happen
he doesn't really pay you off with 99 if you felt on the turn... he COULD raise, but he wouldn't felt

but on the river I think you win 0% of the time
if he had a set he just drew out
if he had JT he had you beat already
and if he's fucktarded and had 98/78 he just drew out anyway

you only tie if you call so you need to tie 54% of the time to call the river

I don't think there's any value in 3-betting the turn... so it's fine as played.

River is really stupid... Fold seems reasonable, but I think you're splitting a shitton of times.
Yes, you need to be good 1/3rd of the time... but you're never good... or just 3.5% or something... You're either splitting or loosing. The question is how often you're splitting.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

you only tie if you call so you need to tie 54% of the time to call the river

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Sounds about right.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

so it's like does he really cold-call JT in the MP?

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MP minbet/folds as expected... he got raised by the SB.

fold>shove>call

but I'm in full-on plo mode lately

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

but on the river I think you win 0% of the time
if he had a set he just drew out

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I'm pretty sure there's no wayyy the river changed anything. He'd have to be a lil crazy to cold 3bet the turn c/r with a set/two pair on this board really. I don't think many ppl would do that at all.

I call river, I think he bets harder with JT.

I think it's a fold. We have blockers for 6x so i doubt we're tie >50% here..

also why do u assume he wont raise a set but will raise 89 on turn. I think he has a boat like never. We also can't bluff shove him off TJ since he has like 12$ left.

Seems like a clear fold to me

And ofc he v-bets the river with JT!

The 89 was a last second edit to my post, but yeah thinking more about it, that doesnt make much sense either :)

I folded, I dont think we'll tie it >50% since we have 2 6's. Afterwards I saw the pot odds and was more thinking he might bluff river 27%.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alexos

We also can't bluff shove him off TJ since he has like 12$ left.

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luls totally missed this, ya I just fold

Fold imo