Asymmetric Warfare (Ranges 101)
Edit: fixed EV equation. Here's about the simplest way to think of ranges. Big Cards vs. Small Cards.
Example. The flop comes AQ4, and the PFR cbets. The CC'r folds.
The preflop raiser (PFR) is presumed by everyone at the table to have big cards like AK, JJ or KQs. The cold caller (CC) is presumed to have small and medium cards like J9s or 55. And that's it. Big card range to the PFR, and small card range to the CC. We can think deeper, and should, but honestly most of our competition at the micros never gets past the big card / small card thing to a solid idea of ranges.
Strong Symmetric Hands. The PFR holds AJ. The flop is AQx. He cbets. The CC folds.
Hero's hand is strong, and his holding is symmetric with the range he's representing. His open-raise said "I have big cards." His cbet said, "I like the flop just fine, thanks." TAGG poker.
Weak Asymmetric Hands. The PFR holds 77. The flop is AQ4. He cbets. The CC folds.
The reason the cbet works is because Hero's still repping the Ax type hand. But his true holding is weak, and it's asymmetric to his represented range. Most TAGG's get comfortable with Weak Asymmetry.
Hand 1.
UTG is 30/10 and somewhat of a station postflop, though I only have about 100 hands with him. When I raise from the BB, I know he's floating 90% of the flops we'll see. He'll need convincing that I actually have decent cards.
$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($72.20)
UTG 1 ($46.00)
CO ($105.30)
BTN ($121.85)
SB ($126.90)
Hero (BB) ($123.40)
Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BB :7h: :7d:
UTG calls $1, 3 folds, SB calls $0.50, Hero raises to $4, UTG calls $3, SB folds
Flop: :ah: :js: :6c: ($9, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, UTG calls $6
Turn: :5h: ($21, 2 players)
Hero bets $13, UTG folds
Final Pot: $21
Admittedly, I probably have the best hand on the flop, but he could be limp/calling some Axs and even JTs/J9s (or 66!). I have to convince him I actually have a better Ace than his or that I have an Ace when he doesn't. The turn isn't a total brick, but it's not likely to have helped him out.
That's how we use Asymmetric Warfare all the time, representing hands that are much better than we ones we have with our cbet/2-barreling lines. If we tell a story that's believable based on the board and our image, villains will fold hands that they shouldn't have. And we profit.
What I never understood until a few months ago is that we don't have to have much of hand to attack villain's who are using this weak version of Asymmetry too often. We can represent a big hand and attack like we have one. If they cbet too frequently and choose the wrong boards, they're walking into poker's equivalent of guerilla warfare without any ammunition.
Hand 2. Asymmetric Warfare.
Villain is a decent TAGG, about 24/18/3. He doesn't play positionally enough, so his UTG is fairly wide, open-raising 14% or 15% of his hands over an 800 hand sample. He cbets 85% of the time and otherwise plays straightforward, unimaginative poker.
$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($108.10)
UTG 1 ($103.00)
Hero (CO) ($118.65)
BTN ($130.40)
SB ($101.00)
BB ($69.65)
Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is CO :6h: :6d:
UTG raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $4, 3 folds
Flop: :5d: :3d: :9c: ($9.50, 2 players)
UTG bets $8, Hero raises to $24, UTG folds
It should be fairly obvious the flop missed his range, but he's still got hands likes TT+ that will continue here. So is this raise a good idea? If he's opening 15% of his hands, then he's really only able to call or raise with two diamonds in his hand, TT+ or a set. You can work out exact ranges yourself, but the possible hands he can continue with is less than 5% of all starting hands. That's less than a third of his range.
Since this villain cbets 85% of the time, that means that he's got "air" about 1.5 x more often than a solid hand.
Let "W" be Hero's ability to win the pot when called or raised, or (in other words) Hero's playable equity in the pot if Villain doesn't fold. The math says Hero expected value is:
EV = ( $17.50) 0.6 + [ ( $57.50 * W) - ($57.50 * ( 1 - W)) ]0.4.
So Hero's play is +EV whenever W > 27%. That's surprising to most folks, that Hero only has to pull one win out of four attempts when called to make this ploy break even. With position, reads, the ability fire scary cards plus the "stronger" represented range, he can often expect to do better even with a hand that is behind basically every hand that might call. (Edited the EV equation and this paragraph.)
The key to using these tactics are to progress past "Ranges 101" where you think solely in terms of big cards and small ones so that you can exploit those who do. But the general idea is very useful. You're going to have less trouble convincing someone to fold if your represented range is strong in terms of "big cards." The concept of "dry flops" is simply the art of picking flops that have low cards in them but don't hit the "low card range" very hard.
And remember, most of your opponents think, if they think at all, in terms of big cards and small cards. Confront them with a "lethal show of force."
