$4,40/180, itm, QQ

What would you do here? We've just made itm. BB is 15/8 after 26 hands, I don't have much of a read on him.

If I call and beat him, I've got a very good stack to enter final table - or I'm out and getting double my buy-in back.
Even my current stack would be ok for the final table, they're pretty soft in these.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00+$0.40 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 75 Ante (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t24996)
Button (t8600)
Hero (SB) (t22011)
BB (t21756)
UTG (t7723)
UTG+1 (t21598)
MP1 (t22715)
MP2 (t4246)

Hero's M: 12.23

Preflop: Hero is SB with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif
UTG calls t800, 5 folds, Hero bets t3200, BB raises to t21681 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero ???

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lestic

If I call and beat him, I've got a very good stack to enter final table - or I'm out and getting double my buy-in back.
Even my current stack would be ok for the final table, they're pretty soft in these.

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These are pretty much exactly the wrong things you should be considering in this spot.

What do you think his range is?

I would never fold in this spot.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lestic

If I call and beat him, I've got a very good stack to enter final table - or I'm out and getting double my buy-in back.
Even my current stack would be ok for the final table, they're pretty soft in these.

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These are pretty much exactly the wrong things you should be considering in this spot.

What do you think his range is?

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I'd say it's about AJ+, possibly any pair. Could be even broader if he thinks I'm stealing, and I've been stealing a fair bit in the last few rounds..

Just shove it in preflop. Your raise is essentially pot-committing UTG. We know he's terrible because he's limping for 10% of his stack and he's very likely to call with any pair, any A, etc. If he calls this raise you really can't fold even on an A-high flop so just get it in.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lestic

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lestic

If I call and beat him, I've got a very good stack to enter final table - or I'm out and getting double my buy-in back.
Even my current stack would be ok for the final table, they're pretty soft in these.

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These are pretty much exactly the wrong things you should be considering in this spot.

What do you think his range is?

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I'd say it's about AJ+, possibly any pair. Could be even broader if he thinks I'm stealing, and I've been stealing a fair bit in the last few rounds..

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I think you just answered your own question, turning this from a instafistpump call to a yaylolfistpump call.

If you needed any extra assurance, the UTG donk's limping range has a ton of Ax and Kx, making your equity even greater.

all in!

I would put the range much tighter than any pair, AJ+.
In this spot it could be as tight as JJ+, AQ+.

Against my tight range QQ is still a favourite, you have to call.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lestic

I'd say it's about AJ+, possibly any pair. Could be even broader if he thinks I'm stealing, and I've been stealing a fair bit in the last few rounds..

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Then I don't understand why you posted this thread, call obviously.

I'd say it's about AJ+, possibly any pair. Could be even broader if he thinks I'm stealing, and I've been stealing a fair bit in the last few rounds..[/quote]

So you've created a bit of a loose/aggressive image, you figure he thinks you've been stealing (because you have been),... haven't you been setting him up for exactly a situation like this one?
That said,.... what would keep you from calling?

Thanx for the replies!
And of course I called him, and won the flip against his AK.
It just got me wondering afterwards, that whether this kind of flip was a bit too risky at this stage of the tourney..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lestic

It just got me wondering afterwards, that whether this kind of flip was a bit too risky at this stage of the tourney..

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Please quantify this question. What percent equity do you think you need for the "risk" to be worth it?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lestic

It just got me wondering afterwards, that whether this kind of flip was a bit too risky at this stage of the tourney..

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Please quantify this question. What percent equity do you think you need for the "risk" to be worth it?

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60 / 40 ?

What do you think?

You don't need an edge to call in this spot. You should call this with AQo.

I would even take the equity below in order to win, because that is your goal.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

421,226,784 games 0.005 secs 84,245,356,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.371% 50.99% 01.38% 214798848 5801790.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 47.629% 46.25% 01.38% 194824356 5801790.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sprayed

I would even take the equity below in order to win, because that is your goal.

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we could actually take slightly worse equity than that given the dead money in the pot

open push pf/insta-call his AI

CALL!!! He has AK, JJ, or 1010.