50nl JT straight 160bb deep paired board

CO is 20/14/3.5 over 500 hands. BB is 16/14/1.2 over 200 hands. Thoughts?

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($39.50)
CO ($81.90)
Hero (BTN) ($81.55)
SB ($25.25)
BB ($116.55)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is BTN :tc: :js:
1 fold, CO raises to $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Flop: :9s: :9h: :2s: ($7, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: :8d: ($7, 4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $4, CO calls $4, Hero calls $4, SB folds

River: :qh: ($19, 3 players)
BB bets $7, CO raises to $19, $19 to Hero ($75.80)?

let's see what the cutoff could have
he should be raising a wide range, 92 is not in his range though 89 is
Q9 only if suited, but he'd bet the flop to charge a flush draw - same with 89
obviously if he flopped 22 or 99 he could be slowplaying hoping someone hits something
not sure if he would check 88 on the flop, though
he could also have JT

so his most LIKELY holdings: 22, 99, JT

the BB could call with lots of junk
so his most likely range is : 89s, T9s, J9s, Q9s, 22, 99, 88, AsQs, KsQs, JT


it just looks like if CO had trips he wouldn't slowplay them, but charge a flush draw on the flop especially four way
of course if he WOULD slowplay trips your equity increases, but then there's the possibility BB has you crushed and if you call he'll shove

I mean the chance you're good is probably as high as 20-30% and it would be very annoying to fold the best hand, but I think when you're crushed by the CO and the BB just has something random like a queen + busted flush draw you're calling CO's raise and BB folds which means you're nowhere near the correct odds

few people are good enough to turn a profit with that preflop call

got any reads besides them cool numbers you paid $80 for?

Looks like an easy call.

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

few people are good enough to turn a profit with that preflop call

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good point

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

got any reads besides them cool numbers you paid $80 for?

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CO is solid, able to play back, but won't stack off without a decent hand, so I was pretty worried I was crushed there. SB - nothing interesting.

SNAP CALL!

Id bet the flop, fold the turn and fold the river

3-bet or fold preflop, and probably just fold. as played bet the flop. you take it down soo much, and you dont even have to bet big at all.

if we're betting the flop I like $3-$4

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Originally Posted by XTR1000

Id bet the flop, fold the turn and fold the river

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bet the flop, bet the turn, and bet the river!

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

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Originally Posted by XTR1000

Id bet the flop, fold the turn and fold the river

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bet the flop, bet the turn, and bet the river!

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even if the river goes donk-raise?

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

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Originally Posted by XTR1000

Id bet the flop, fold the turn and fold the river

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bet the flop, bet the turn, and bet the river!

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yea i mean as played prob fold turn

FWIW, I shoved donk-shoved river, ran into CO's 99 quads. I think it's fold preflop for a player of my ability level, like nutshino said. I don't usually call preflop here, and I will refrain from losing my mind like this in the future.

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Originally Posted by iopq

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

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Originally Posted by XTR1000

Id bet the flop, fold the turn and fold the river

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bet the flop, bet the turn, and bet the river!

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even if the river goes donk-raise?

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the fuck is wrong with you

I think the river is a trivial fold at these stakes, certainly never a jam.

edit, oh yea, turn is a fold for me too but it's probably rly close closing the action. Oh wait, we're not closing the action, yea I just fold.

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

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Originally Posted by iopq

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

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Originally Posted by XTR1000

Id bet the flop, fold the turn and fold the river

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bet the flop, bet the turn, and bet the river!

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even if the river goes donk-raise?

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the fuck is wrong with you

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Why do people keep asking me this

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Originally Posted by iopq

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

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Originally Posted by iopq

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

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Originally Posted by XTR1000

Id bet the flop, fold the turn and fold the river

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bet the flop, bet the turn, and bet the river!

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even if the river goes donk-raise?

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the fuck is wrong with you

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Why do people keep asking me this

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because you keep giving them reason to.

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Originally Posted by will641

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Originally Posted by iopq

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

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Originally Posted by iopq

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

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Originally Posted by XTR1000

Id bet the flop, fold the turn and fold the river

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bet the flop, bet the turn, and bet the river!

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even if the river goes donk-raise?

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the fuck is wrong with you

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Why do people keep asking me this

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because you keep giving them reason to.

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that hurts T___T

I'm not folding this river.... and I'm not raising this river... so.....

you re chopping sooo much here vs the value-raise plus who knows maybe the guy can make a horrible overcall without a boat and you guys get his maniez!

definitely folding this on the turn. a Queen of spades and a 7 of spades would give you about the tenth nuts so there's no way you're making your value back if those hit. so you hit one of your six dream outs, and you're still in a very tricky spot. i definitely don't see you making your value back for making that call nearly often enough to make it worth it