proof that online poker is NOT rigged
I thought I would post about this, for every beginner who sees a few bad beats and suckouts and assumes that online poker is rigged. I have been going through an absolutely awful period of variance in my live game. In the last 9 or so hours of play (about 300 hands or so), in mostly limit and some no-limit, here are my results:
I have been dealt an ace in my hand about 6 times. I did not win one of the pots where my ace paired; I chopped one and lost the others.
I have hit 3 straights. All 3 times, a flush beat me on the river.
I have hit 1 flush. A full house, formed by an underpair that made a set on the river, beat me.
I have hit 5 sets and quads once. On the quads and one set, I won, but in each case nobody bet into me and players folded to my bets and I made very little money. On the other hand, 4 sets have been beaten by straights or flushes, 3 of them on the river.
I have been dealt pocket aces, pocket kings, pocket queens, pocket jacks, or pocket tens approximately 9 times total. All 9 times, they lost.
I have made 2 pair twice. Both times, a player made trips on the river to beat me.
During this period, I have lost approximately $1,400. I have reviewed the major hands and determined that I played each one correctly, getting chips in when I was a favorite to win the hand or when the better hand that the villain had was a small part of the villain's range. Indeed, I calculate that if I had played poorly, I would have lost a lot more.
None of this is a whine. It's all part of poker. If you can't accept the variance, you shouldn't be playing. But my point is, for the above events to all happen probably, in theory, bucks odds of over 100 to 1 against.
But when you take a bunch of bad beats and start questioning the random number generator at an online site or thinking they fix the hands to keep the fish in the game, think about this post. Nobody is fixing the game at the casino. It's just that variance, even extreme variance, is a fact of life in poker.
Re: proof that online poker is NOT rigged
Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
It's just that variance, even extreme variance, is a fact of life in poker.
I would argue that variance is just a fact of life period. Ups and downs happen in all aspects of life.
Re: proof that online poker is NOT rigged
Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
I thought I would post about this, for every beginner who sees a few bad beats and suckouts and assumes that online poker is rigged. I have been going through an absolutely awful period of variance in my live game. In the last 9 or so hours of play (about 300 hands or so), in mostly limit and some no-limit, here are my results:
I have been dealt an ace in my hand about 6 times. I did not win one of the pots where my ace paired; I chopped one and lost the others.
I have hit 3 straights. All 3 times, a flush beat me on the river.
I have hit 1 flush. A full house, formed by an underpair that made a set on the river, beat me.
I have hit 5 sets and quads once. On the quads and one set, I won, but in each case nobody bet into me and players folded to my bets and I made very little money. On the other hand, 4 sets have been beaten by straights or flushes, 3 of them on the river.
I have been dealt pocket aces, pocket kings, pocket queens, pocket jacks, or pocket tens approximately 9 times total. All 9 times, they lost.
I have made 2 pair twice. Both times, a player made trips on the river to beat me.
During this period, I have lost approximately $1,400. I have reviewed the major hands and determined that I played each one correctly, getting chips in when I was a favorite to win the hand or when the better hand that the villain had was a small part of the villain's range. Indeed, I calculate that if I had played poorly, I would have lost a lot more.
None of this is a whine. It's all part of poker. If you can't accept the variance, you shouldn't be playing. But my point is, for the above events to all happen probably, in theory, bucks odds of over 100 to 1 against.
But when you take a bunch of bad beats and start questioning the random number generator at an online site or thinking they fix the hands to keep the fish in the game, think about this post. Nobody is fixing the game at the casino. It's just that variance, even extreme variance, is a fact of life in poker.
5 straights, a flush, 5 sets, 1 quads, 2 pair twice, 9 big pairs in 300 hands.. sounds like LIVE poker is rigged for you to be running that good.
In my last 1000 hands I've had 6 straights, 1 flush, 2 sets, 0 quads, and 11 two pairs.
Post some hands for people to comment on so you can make sure you are playing them properly. Maybe its not variance and something fixable. (hopefully right?)
Re: proof that online poker is NOT rigged
Quote:
Originally Posted by Outlaw
Post some hands for people to comment on so you can make sure you are playing them properly. Maybe its not variance and something fixable. (hopefully right?)
Some of them are up on the tilt forum.
Here's the thing-- the fact that I've made a bunch of good hands is exactly why this particular period of card death was so costly. In other words, I've had periods many times before where I haven't hit any playable cards pre-flop for an hour and a half. That's standard, and not particularly costly, just boring.
But this is a time period where I had big-time hands, which means I put plenty of money into the pots. I was an 80 to 90 percent favorite in some of these hands when I was betting.
Lastly, bear in mind that my estimates of the number of hands played is based on the time at the table. It's possible that it is somewhat higher or lower, if the dealers are actually a little faster than slower on average.
Re: proof that online poker is NOT rigged
Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
I have reviewed the major hands and determined that I played each one correctly, getting chips in when I was a favorite to win the hand or when the better hand that the villain had was a small part of the villain's range.
Judging from the hands you posted in the tilt forum, I don't know that you're adjusting well to such loose games. Villian ranges in your games seem to be ATC. As a result, your aggression is really spewy at times since they aren't folding anyway and then you yourself are being stationy when met with resistance. I'll respond in detail in the Tilt forum.
Re: proof that online poker is NOT rigged
Quote:
Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
I have reviewed the major hands and determined that I played each one correctly, getting chips in when I was a favorite to win the hand or when the better hand that the villain had was a small part of the villain's range.
Judging from the hands you posted in the tilt forum, I don't know that you're adjusting well to such loose games. Villian ranges in your games seem to be ATC. As a result, your aggression is really spewy at times since they aren't folding anyway and then you yourself are being stationy when met with resistance. I'll respond in detail in the Tilt forum.
Well, I posted a response (and I think you are right about how I played at least one of the hands). But the pattern seemed to be that I would get my chips in when I was ahead in the hand, and then get sucked out on.
In any event, FWIW, I took a couple of days off because of this, get my bearings back. Not sure it is needed, because I think my plays were mostly positive EV, but I figure it might help.
Re: proof that online poker is NOT rigged
Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
Well, I posted a response (and I think you are right about how I played at least one of the hands). But the pattern seemed to be that I would get my chips in when I was ahead in the hand, and then get sucked out on.
Pre-flop, maybe. But in only 2 of the 6 hands you posted were you ahead of the eventual winner on the flop. In one of those hands, the opp had the correct odds to chase his flush so it's not really a suck-out, it's math.
In your fave hand, the hand where you had the straight flush draw, you were never ahead, pre or post.
This is the danger in playing loose games against poor opps where every hand goes to showdown. A pair, even top pair, is a marginal hand. Reverse implied odds are high. You have to ask yourself if you're adjusting correctly. And consider checking behind once in a while with marginal holdings, it's not like they're folding to your aggression anyway.
Re: proof that online poker is NOT rigged
Quote:
Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
Well, I posted a response (and I think you are right about how I played at least one of the hands). But the pattern seemed to be that I would get my chips in when I was ahead in the hand, and then get sucked out on.
Pre-flop, maybe. But in only 2 of the 6 hands you posted were you ahead of the eventual winner on the flop. In one of those hands, the opp had the correct odds to chase his flush so it's not really a suck-out, it's math.
In your fave hand, the hand where you had the straight flush draw, you were never ahead, pre or post.
This is the danger in playing loose games against poor opps where every hand goes to showdown. A pair, even top pair, is a marginal hand. Reverse implied odds are high. You have to ask yourself if you're adjusting correctly. And consider checking behind once in a while with marginal holdings, it's not like they're folding to your aggression anyway.
1. My straight flush draw was definitely ahead:
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 4s Td 9d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5s 5h 286 28.89 704 71.11 0 0.00 0.289
Qd Jd 704 71.11 286 28.89 0 0.00 0.711
It happened that the 5 of diamonds was the worst card in the deck for me.
2. I think you missed part of the point of the post. Some of those hands were coolers, and some were suckouts. All were examples of variance.
3. Here's my general philosophy in loose live limit games. You are right that I have little fold equity. But the flip side is that you can build extremely big pots when you are ahead and people are betting. And that's where your edge lies. The math says that you are a favorite against Villains' range, you get the chips in and hope they don't cactch the right card.
I can tell you about gigantic pots that I won with a pair of aces where I simply had everyone chasing and nobody caught anything.
I figure that when I am donking it in like that, the other players will wake up and tell me when I am beat. And they usually do.
But as I said, I think you are definitely right about at least one of the hands, and I am open to criticism on all the others. The point wasn't how great I played, it's how sharp variance can be.
Re: proof that online poker is NOT rigged
Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
1. My straight flush draw was definitely ahead:
Yes, you were favored odds-wise but you were never winning the hand. Not sure how you can call a draw that never came a cooler because at no point could the pot have been shipped to you.
Also, I do understand with the point of the original post and agree with it. I'm suggesting that some of this is NOT just variance and is, in fact, your spew. I'm also suggesting that maybe you aren't adjusting to loose-passive play as well as you think.
Re: proof that online poker is NOT rigged
Quote:
Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
1. My straight flush draw was definitely ahead:
Yes, you were favored odds-wise but
you were never winning the hand. Not sure how you can call a draw that never came a cooler because at no point could the pot have been shipped to you.
Also, I do understand with the point of the original post and agree with it. I'm suggesting that some of this is NOT just variance and is, in fact, your spew. I'm also suggesting that maybe you aren't adjusting to loose-passive play as well as you think.
I think you are being a bit too results-oriented here. If I am spewing chips while I am a mathematical favorite, and I am getting callers, by definition, those plays are positive EV.
Now does that mean that I am playing perfect poker? No, I am not. I never have played perfect poker, and I never will.
But among the possible adjustments to loose-passive games, I don't see the point of slowing down when you are a favorite to win the hand. Indeed, I don't even think it is possible to slow down on these tables, because the other players will go ahead and bet if you don't, and you'll just be faced with raise-call-or fold decisions.
This means that your only two choices really are to keep spewing your chips or fold. And if we are going to spew chips, I'd rather be the aggressor and have some control of when I do it.
When the going gets tough,in time,the player gets rough.
That is so true about being rigged.I go through the same situations.What I do when this starts happening is take a break from playing.Not that iI want to but,when I come back-It seems that the cards treat me better.Reading all the information and different post and situations in the FTR Forum have helped me deal with bad days or should I say bad games.Keep at it,don't quit.The more you go through these set backs.The more you'll learn to deal with it.The better player you'll become.
Re: proof that online poker is NOT rigged
Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
But among the possible adjustments to loose-passive games, I don't see the point of slowing down when you are a favorite to win the hand.
lol, at no point did I suggest that. Go back through your 6 hands and see how many chips you put in with vulnerable hands or when you weren't a favorite, considering no FE and heavy reverse implied odds. I mean, you value bet a pair of 9s on the river in position into multiple opps with a pair and possible straight on the board, then overcalled when it was raised back to you? Don't you see how that is spew?
Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
I can tell you about gigantic pots that I won with a pair of aces where I simply had everyone chasing and nobody caught anything.
Of course. But can you tell me about gigantic pots that you won with middle pairs where you had everyone chasing and nobody caught anything? And do those times outnumber the times you got "sucked out on" or "coolered" with similar holdings?
Again, I understand your point about variance. You don't need to bring it up again. This thread has taken a turn.
Re: proof that online poker is NOT rigged
Quote:
Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Of course. But can you tell me about gigantic pots that you won with middle pairs where you had everyone chasing and nobody caught anything? And do those times outnumber the times you got "sucked out on" or "coolered" with similar holdings?
Again, I understand your point about variance. You don't need to bring it up again. This thread has taken a turn.
It's a reasonable point. But the chances of anyone having a higher pocket pair than 9's in any given hand in a 9 handed game is about 1 in 8 1/2. So you can't be that afraid of overpairs in that situation. Overcards on the board are the bigger enemy.
