Calling 3bets (help with some math)
I've figured out my 4b for value range against pretty much any 3b range, but i want to figure out what i can call a 3b with and still have a positive expected value. For a general scenario, i raise pot, opponent 3bets pot, and im left with a decision on how to continue with the lower parts of my range. Im at micros, and dont think many villains are 3b bluffing, so if i can get some estimation of their 3b range, i can easily 4b for value. IE, if their only 3betting {AK, KK+} i can 4b for value with AA, and KK though it has like 47% equity and try to get it in pre. But what about a hand like KQs? I used to think its an easy fold, and after some math thats right, but other hands turn out to be much more playable...or so it seems.
So i raise pot, villain 3bs pot, and it turns out that i need exactly half the pot to win. For a breakeven play, this results in p/(1-p) = .5 or p = 33%. So any hand with greater than 33% equity can call profitably pre...theres a problem here that is the reason for this post...but wait a sec. So of my raising range, all pocket pairs have at least 37% equity, and the only other hands that have enough equity against the range above are suited connectors that do not have their straight outs cut and are not blockers. So like 76s and 65s etc.
The problem arises in that i will generally only get to see a flop with these hands regardless of what position im in. The equity calculated is for seeing a full 5 cards. I can guess that by reducing the number of cards i get to see, the equity for both the pairs and the connectors will diminish past 33%...but i dont want to guess. Im close to confirming a thought that it is only correct to continue for value against a 3bet but cannot proceed any further unless i can actually calculate the ev of a hand like QQ after 3 cards or a hand like 65s after 3 cards. Obviously things like set value are still relavent so its probably ok to continue with the pairs anyway (given a certain stack size yadda yadda yadda). Granted, this is all assuming i actually have these hands in my range, but run with it.
Im not asking for ppl to calculate this for me, i just dont understand how to even start. Even something so simple as having QQ, i dont see how to calculate its value after 3 cards against ak kk+. Can someone help me here? Or...can someone suggest a program that would tell me after x cards? I know of pokerstove ldo, but i dont think it will calculate equity for only seeing the flop. Any ideas or examples using somewhat simpler toy games would be helpful.
