100NL HU 170bb deep turn top set

$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, March 14, 07:49:45 ET 2009
Table Hirose II (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: Marshall28 ( $170.60 USD )
Seat 2: 3AXBOCT ( $191.00 USD )
3AXBOCT posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Marshall28 posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Marshall28 [ 8d 8c ]
3AXBOCT raises [$2.50 USD]
Marshall28 calls [$2.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7c, 5d, 3c ]
Marshall28 bets [$4.00 USD]
3AXBOCT calls [$4.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8s ]
Marshall28 bets [$11.00 USD]
3AXBOCT raises [$38.50 USD]

History: Since we got deep I stopped 3betting him a ton and started flatting a lot more. He just won a big pot to double up where he flat my 3b and raised/got it in w/ J9cc on 986hh so he has a bit of the momentum.

He's only seen me donk flop w/ tptk, only other times I donked flop he either called and folded on turn or folded to my c/r on turn or whatever.

I think he's basically always raising the flop w/ 2pr or better. There are only two hands that beat me, 46 and 96, I think he never has 46, I think the only hand he can ever have here is 96, particularly since it was a double gutter on the flop. Can I flat here and c/f when the board doesn't pair?

bump

Sometimes you think you have a really good idea about how someone plays and then they surprise you. Are you sure this can't be an overpair? and you can't actually rule out 83, 85, or 87 even though there's one other 7 in the deck.

I'd follow your read if you really are so sure its 96 but even so i don't think you should fold the river unless it comes like a 4 or a 9 and he insta bets. I'd probably fold if he overshoves.