5nl: AQ faces scary board

The only part I am not sure of is my fold on the river. Villain is 35/7.5/5 over only 40 hands with a 3bet of 15.38. He has not shown down any spectacular hands. I folded river because it felt like I was up against 2 pair, probably AJ, but a flopped set is probably in his range too. Flush and straights are unlikely b/c of the flop raise. AK is unlikely b/c of the call pf and his high 3bet number. The only hand I can possibly beat is AT/A9 but these seem unlikely b/c of his reraise on the flop.

Would you call this river? Did I misplay the other streets?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($4.60)
SB ($1.95)
BB ($6.90)
Hero (UTG) ($6.07)
MP ($5.43)
CO ($7.36)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif
Hero bets $0.20, 3 folds, SB calls $0.18, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.60) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.10, Hero raises to $0.60, 1 fold, BB raises to $1.10, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($2.80) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero calls $1

River: ($4.80) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero folds

Total pot: $4.80 | Rake: $0.20

question
when you called the turn, what card would have to come out
so you call the less than half pot bet on the river.
i also see AT/A9 in his range but the raise on the flop also confuses me

Is his 3bet statistic his total 3betting % ? If so, then he has to have at least 3-bet some number of streets post-flop before (it's twice as big as his PFR statistic). 15% in 40 hands seems like quite a lot if he hasn't been showing down anything spectacular. Min-bet, min-3bet, either he's caught a monster and doesn't want to scare you off or he's just hitting that bet button half-arsedly (one reason i'd be inclined to put a few more bare Ax in his range).

clvacva is right about the river too, i mean, you're getting nearly as good a price on the river as you were on the turn and only a few backdoor flushes get there (which you weren't worried about anyway).

I think here i'd be very quickly looking through his aggression frequencies on the turn and river, WTSD % and W$WTSD % to see if I am ahead here at least 1 in every 4 times I call.

Question, if say, a 8 of spades (or similar card) hits the river, do you call? What hand were you beating on the turn when you called that you are now afraid of on the river? AK? O wait nope, you were beat by that ALREADY /sarcasm.

As played call the river.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by loonychune

Is his 3bet statistic his total 3betting % ? If so, then he has to have at least 3-bet some number of streets post-flop before (it's twice as big as his PFR statistic).

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Only hands in which someone has raised before you count for the 3b statistic, but you can PFR being the first person in the pot or isolating limpers

I just call him down, even if he has a set he's getting low value from it if he plays it this way
since he could have check/raised the flop to 1.5 or something and bet 3 on the turn

I'd call it down because I see air sometimes, a worse ace sometimes as well, and I'm not fucking calling that turn just to fold the river

lol what the hell kind of betting is that guy doing lol. Um id call the river. Honestly if he has a set or a K-j of clubs or a A-j so be it. Don't call the guy down if your in doubt, put him to the test before that club pops off and then your really afraid. I hate AQ

I don't understand why you're calling his flop re-raise, if you're not happy to stack off here with TPGK you shouldn't be calling his re-raise IMO.

If you are happy to, then you should be re-reraising on the flop imo. You want to build the pot with your strong hands to maximise your equity edge.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

Only hands in which someone has raised before you count for the 3b statistic

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:idea: Thanks. When I post I want ppl to point mistakes out.

Do you think the min-bet/min-3bet is a sign of strength or of weakness most often in this spot? I can-not de-cide.