Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Nice post meeloche. This is a spot many people just overlook in studying and make a play nearly automatically. I fall into that group, so here I am to give it a look.
I'd agree with sil that our c-bet in this spot does a few different things.
1) There are some worse hands that can call us, mainly flush draws. While we are getting value from his flush draws currently by cbetting here, there are a few problems that could arise. (a) His flush draws have relatively good equity against our hand. (b) I doubt he will c/call his flush draws with a 100% frequency, and I would expect him to c/r some % of the time, which we won't be able to call.
2) Depending on the villain, there probably aren't a lot of better hands that our cbet will fold (at this time!). While it is certainly possible for him to just c/f 56, 67, 77-99 type hands, I wouldn't count on it occuring very frequently (obv villain dependent). If he is not c/folding those hands, then by cbetting we really only fold out AQ/AK hands that are better (however, AK and sometimes AQ will be 3bet preflop at times, and therefore won't always be in his range here).
I say there aren't a lot of better hands that will fold "at this time" in the above paragraph. The reason I say this is because while a c-bet will be called by better hands here, a decent amount of those hands will not be able to continue to additional aggression on further streets. If he is check/calling the flop c-bet with hands like 56, 67, 77-99, FDs, we are setting ourselves up for profitable barreling situations where we can bet turn, and possibly river and he will lay down a large % of his range (such as a sizable portion of the range above).
3)C-betting here kinda falls under the category of betting for protection. A c-bet here does achieve a few things, even though it might not be the typical sense of value (getting worse hands to call) or bluff (folding better hands). We are likely to have the best hand some % of the time (as we are opening CO, and depending on villain he is calling KQ, KJ, AT, etc type hands that we beat).
So a c-bet from us, while it might not get many better hands to fold, and might not get many worse hands to call, it does win the pot a decent % of the time. This is good, because we don't have 100% of equity in this spot; however, when villain folds he is conceding his equity in the pot. (Example: if villain has 30% equity with a pot of 10bb. On average, if we just check it down we will only win 7bb. However, if we c-bet and he folds we win the entire 10bb (he will obv only fold a % of the time though).
Another advantage of c-betting would be to minimize the times when villain "bluffs" us off the pot (that is he has <50% equity, yet we fold. Which will occur at times if we just check back the flop here).
4)A c-bet here balances our range. While we might have the best hand, and since we don't get many better hands to fold or many worse hands to call (bluff/value), checking back this flop might seem like a relatively viable option. However, we would likely never check back this flop with a nut type hand. Therefore, by checking back the flop we are really giving villain decent information about the strength of our hand, which is that we are relatively weak and can't stand ample amounts of aggression.
5) While it's generally a bad idea to bet solely for information, this bet will give us a decent amount of information about villains range. Since this is a relatively drawy flop, and we could easily have draws, nut made hands, etc., villain will likely be looking to c/r this flop with his strong made hands, draws, air the majority of the time. When he doesn't do this, while we can't totally write off the chances of him having a strong hand, we can reduce the frequency with which he shows up with a nut type hand. And therefore, this ties into the above paragraph of settin us up for +ev barreling situations.
That's all I have for now. I'll check back later and add some more maybe. But for now, I would just like to leave one thought.
If we are in this spot, I would be perfectly happy to c-bet a hand like J9, KJ, as we have little showdown value against villains range, and there are more better hands that would fold. However, with a hand like AJ, AQ, AK, we do have some amount of SD value. If we expect c/raises often on this board, it kinda makes sense to check back hands like AJ-AK as we are often going to be c/raised off of those hands. And depending on turn/river cards, and the frequency with which villain bluffs if we check back, we could setup some interesting hero calls.
So basically what I'm asking is, does the benefits of c-betting this type of hand [AJ-AK] (balance, villain conceding equity, setting up for barreling situations, etc) outweight to disadvantages of c-betting this hand (being c/raised off of what could be the best hand relatively often)? I think it does, and c-bet here the majority of the time (with the intent of barreling good turn/river cards if villain c/calls my c-bet). Thoughts?