I folded. Then cried after.

31/3 over 150+ hands

Pretty sure this is a standard fold, but what is his range on the river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Button ($22.80)
SB ($14.75)
Hero (BB) ($25)
UTG ($10.05)
UTG+1 ($33.35)
MP1 ($15.45)
MP2 ($12.30)
MP3 ($25.25)
CO ($16.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.25, 3 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

Flop: ($1) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, UTG+1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, 1 fold

Turn: ($4) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $4, UTG+1 calls $4, 1 fold

River: ($12) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $20, Hero folds

Total pot: $12 | Rake: $0.55

villian has either T 9 or 8 9 or has the freaken' balls of titanium...

in these situations once in a while i'd fire again on the river even though there's 4 to a straight out there... surprisingly i still get called by worse but at least it takes away the chance to be bluffed out of a pot...

yeah that overbet is scary because usually at this level when people make overbets, they usually have the goods and sometimes even get paid off. i like the fold

Good fold. I hate sets on a 4straight board....so painful.

Question:

Is the turn bet (pot on a wet board) big enough here?

How much is he not calling here? And why would you spew?

He has J-9, 10-9, 5-6, 6-9, or 7-9, right? And while it's possible he has 2 clubs, it isn't particularly likely.

So if he has J-9 or 6-9, he's made his straight. If he has 5-6, 7-9 or 10-9, he's on a draw, 8 cards out of 45, turn or river. We have priced that draw at 2-1, so if he reads you as giving him a check on the turn, he may call here. If he reads you as likely to bet the turn, he's going to fold.

When I face this situation in no-limit, I tend to make the price a bit higher. But I am not convinced of this-- that's why I phrased it as an open-ended question.

People are saying: "good fold, he's got 1 of 2 hands or he's bluffing and overbets are usually the nuts."

Quote:

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In these situations once in a while i'd fire again on the river

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How often do you fire again? When you do, are you just hoping a player decides 'well, since he's bet, i'll just have to call my AT or TJ' coz I can't get him to fold a better hand now?

What's his calling range?

JJ-99,44,J9s+,T9s,98s,J9o+,T9o,98o perhaps?

Against which we have 20% equity. So if we bet $8, we'll win $12 once and lose $8 4 times... that's -$20 expected value.

But what's his range for betting on the river when we check?

JJ-99,44,ATs,KTs,J9s+,T9s,98s,ATo,KTo,J9o+,T9o,98o maybe?

By throwing in a few hands that made top pair before the river he might bluff with, our equity shoots up to 42%. So by not betting we allow him to fire his hands that were top pair up until the J came.

Let y be his bet size when we check. Then we require that

y <= 0.42(12 + y)

That is,

y <= $8.70

to call vs this range.

I've been NLHE playing properly for 2 months and haven't been involved a great deal here, so surely some of you lot with zillions of posts should have a bit more to say. Even though what you say can be read between the lines, other members might not make such inferences.

why did you cry? he could have easily bet $6 and made you call when he had a straight

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

why did you cry? he could have easily bet $6 and made you call when he had a straight

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+1

I actually prefer a shove on the turn.. even a check is better than a bet in my opinion.

That board really sucks for a valuebet.. there is no hand that called the flop that isn't calling the turn here.. but a lot of hands that are behind might call a shove.. and you have a redraw against hands you are behind. I threw in an example range I believe the villain probably would have had as it played out.

Board: 7d Ts 4c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.266% 54.27% 00.00% 1552 0.00 { 7c7h }
Hand 1: 45.734% 45.73% 00.00% 1308 0.00 { 99, 44, J9s+, T9s, 65s, J9o+, T9o, 65o }

Shove the turn and don't look back.

having shove the turn even cross your mind in a $4 pot with $23 behind is just indicative of someone who plays scared poker.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Outlaw

I actually prefer a shove on the turn.. even a check is better than a bet in my opinion.

That board really sucks for a valuebet.. there is no hand that called the flop that isn't calling the turn here.. but a lot of hands that are behind might call a shove.. and you have a redraw against hands you are behind. I threw in an example range I believe the villain probably would have had as it played out.

Board: 7d Ts 4c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.266% 54.27% 00.00% 1552 0.00 { 7c7h }
Hand 1: 45.734% 45.73% 00.00% 1308 0.00 { 99, 44, J9s+, T9s, 65s, J9o+, T9o, 65o }

Shove the turn and don't look back.

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shoving $20+ into a $4 pot? something doesn't sound right here :facepalm:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by loonychune

Against which we have 20% equity. So if we bet $8, we'll win $12 once and lose $8 4 times... that's -$20 expected value.

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ok, so per the fish #1 mistake thread, what could we possibly do to create a closer to +EV situation if we wanted to bet/fold?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

ok, so per the fish #1 mistake thread, what could we possibly do to create a closer to +EV situation if we wanted to bet/fold?

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Get the ranges right? :D

You have to elaborate oskar! It's all very well saying, his range isn't what I said, but you've got to tell me why and suggest a more appropriate range! Try being a bit more f'ing constructive.

Quote:

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Get the ranges right?

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I really respect you a great deal more as a poker player now. Thanks.

Quote:

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ok, so per the fish #1 mistake thread, what could we possibly do to create a closer to +EV situation if we wanted to bet/fold?

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Going off the equities I gave, we could bet smaller, like $3 so we're winning $12 for every 4 times we lose $3. Our equity might be better if we smaller bet too since he might be tempted to call with a very marginal hand.

yea def. the second part, we could choose a smaller bet that might possibly widen his calling range to a point where we're actually ahead of it, something like $5 or $6.

However, looking at the board texture+river card it's just very unlikely we'll find a hand range that we'll be better than about 30% against on the river if we bet. Therefore we have a few options, most of them involve first checking the river.

The first part, betting smaller because we lose less when we're called isn't the reason to size our value-bets small. When is the perfect play to bet the smallest amount that won't be called?

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When is the perfect play to bet the smallest amount that won't be called?

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I'd have said this is what we are looking to do when we continuation bet bluff. By this I mean, after showing aggression PF, on certain board textures that we probably have the worse hand (e.g. our AQ misses a KJ2 flop, opponent might fold AJ or TT say), we want to bet the smallest amount possible that won't be called.

loonychune... villain is 31/3 which usually means he calls down if a lot of crap post flop if we don't have any other information.

This could be Tx also, or some amibious draws that made a pair. If he was calling you down on flop and turn with a T, there is no reason why he would fold the river to a 2/3PS value bet. Even if he can read boards he's not likely to be worried about you having a straight.
I agree that most of his range beats you on the river, but giving yourself 20% equity is too pessimistic imo.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by oskar

loonychune... villain is 31/3 which usually means he calls down if a lot of crap post flop if we don't have any other information.

This could be Tx also, or some amibious draws that made a pair. If he was calling you down on flop and turn with a T, there is no reason why he would fold the river to a 2/3PS value bet. Even if he can read boards he's not likely to be worried about you having a straight.
I agree that most of his range beats you on the river, but giving yourself 20% equity is too pessimistic imo.

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unless you're the guy who created pokerstove you just cannot say stuff like that. It takes 30 more seconds than what it took you to post that to create a range, run it in pokerstove, and show us the results.

edit: loony even missed 88 and 56

Code:

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Board: Ks Jc 2h
Dead: 

        equity        win        tie              pots won        pots tied       
Hand 0:        68.903%          64.58%        04.32%                828642            55413.00  { 22+, AJs+, KJs+, AJo+, KJo+ }
Hand 1:        31.097%          26.78%        04.32%                343572            55413.00  { AQo }

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I'm rushing out, but put this together concerning C-bets... hand 0 is villain's assumed range... so we might look to bet about half pot on the flop?

oskar:

Thanks. I think either way is range for betting when checked to is a good deal wider than his calling/raising range. If we're raised in this spot, do you think then that our 'value bet' has turned out to be a bet for information and it's an easy fold? Or do we say, well, his range is still pretty wide I have to call if i'm getting better than 2:1 or so on the pot?

no need to think about their range, just fold. these guys always have it.

Stop posting in every damn thread if you're going to bring nothing new to it. Keep doing it and today will be the last day you do.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by loonychune

How often do you fire again? When you do, are you just hoping a player decides 'well, since he's bet, i'll just have to call my AT or TJ' coz I can't get him to fold a better hand now?

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it's pretty rare... usually against loose villains that have a big bet river percentage... i'm not giving them a chance to bluff me off a pot on such a scary board lol...

how often is this villain bluffing zorrito when we check to him and what amount would he typically bet?

villain generally bets river more than 60% more than than not it's like 25% of the pot at most...

Villain bets 25% of the pot on the river. That $3 into a $12 pot.

60% of the time he's 'bluffing'. That means we win $15 60% of the time at the expense of $3, and we lose $3 40% of the time.

Expectation: 0.6*(15) - 0.4(3) = 9 - 1.2 = + $7.80

Let's say instead we decide to bet for value. If you have a read on a player that he big bet bluffs the river a lot then you simply check and call!!! So i'm not concerning myself with that now.

A decent sized value bet is what, $8 ?

What % of hands in his 60% 'bluff' range does he call with? Say 20%?

For our $8 we will take down a $12 + $8 pot then 20% of the time. The other 80% of the time we're losing $8 in this spot.

Expectation: 0.2*(20) - 0.8*(8) = 4 - 6.4 = -$2.40.

I'm pretty sure you just picked a few arbitrary numbers, so I have picked one myself, the 20%.

Why don't you determine the range of hands he continues with on the river and then pick out all the ones he beats us and work out what % of his range those hands are.

It hurts to do it, but you have to fold here. Sucks.

Pot odds + passive player + lots of nines in his flatcall/flatcall/bomb range = super easy fold.

Bet/fold river looks like better line against that type of player.

Block bet the river please.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Block bet the river please.

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what % of the pot is an optimal blocking bet? 1/2?

As small as it can be while maintaining credibility. I think $6 is good here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Block bet the river please.

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What do you do when you get minraised?

fold