Towning villain or towning myself?

Villain was 16/11/3.2 over 105 hands. Can't recall playing with him before and he was new at the table so assuming the 105 hands are datamined.

I sometimes feel that due to villains taking bad passive lines I sometimes town myself, although other times miss out in thin value due to fear of this.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($28.99)
SB ($19.50)
Hero (BB) ($20.78)
UTG ($19.20)
MP ($16.10)
CO ($19.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
4 folds, SB raises $0.70, Hero raises $2.35, SB calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.10) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($5.10) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.20, SB calls $3.20

River: ($11.50) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.80

Total pot: $11.50

On the river, what hands are you expecting him to call with since you don't have a read

EDIT: I'm not sure whether or not betting this flop is good or bad, but I suppose it doesn just turn our hand into a bluff. So delayed c-betting does seem like a good option here so we don't bloat the pot with 2nd pair. We can't not bet the turn here after he checked it twice.

What do you think his calling range to a 3-bet is blind on blind? I think alot of medicore kings (KQ-KJ-KT), some Ax stuff could be in there but also stuff like 88-JJ. Again I don't know how this guy defends his obvious steals, so he could be way tighter than that. Going for value on the river looks slim, but my ranges could be way off. He may never call with KQ-KJ type hands preflop and only any pair + AK/AQ/maybe AJ. In that case, I think betting the river for some thin value would be an okay play, but you'd have to run what you believe the most likely range you're up against on the river through pokerstove.

pairs below my queens mainly 88 99 1010 I think there are far more of these in his range than Ks and better hands and fee I am rarely beat in this spot.

I think AK 4 bets pre mostly and I have blockers so make KQ unlikely.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

pairs below my queens mainly 88 99 1010 I think there are far more of these in his range than Ks and better hands and fee I am rarely beat in this spot.

I think AK 4 bets pre mostly and I have blockers so make KQ unlikely.

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So knock AK out. KQ is unlikely. He probably wouldn't call the turn with AQ/AJ type hands. Not sure if he will fight back pre with JJ but let's just throw it in: therefore you're looking at something like:

88-JJ.

88 is the only hand that has you crushed. I'm putting KQ in the range in this pokerstove calculation as well:

Board: Kh 4h 3c 8d 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.667% 66.67% 00.00% 18 0.00 { QcQs }
Hand 1: 33.333% 33.33% 00.00% 9 0.00 { JJ-88, KQs, KQo }

That range looks tight, but its hard to see him call anything worse on the turn other than maybe Ax FD.

Thanks for your thoughts. I think we can also drop 88 from this since there's very little chance he'd ever check this to us on the river. I've not shown very much strenght post flop in this hand so he has no reason to be sure we'll bet the river.

77 is maybe in there and represents the small chance of smaller pocket pairs being in there.

41,895 games 0.364 secs 115,096 games/sec

Board: Kh 4h 3c 8d 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.007% 80.01% 00.00% 33519 0.00 { QcQs }
Hand 1: 19.993% 19.99% 00.00% 8376 0.00 { JJ-99, 77, KQs, KQo }

Sowith this range, this would become an easy value bet given that I think he calls with JJ 1010 99 the majority of the time.

Be interested to hear some more thoughts on this though.

I would play this the same way. Like you've said, you're getting value out of a few hands, his range that beats you seems really narrow and all other hands are folding. I like this hand.

I think you're dead on about this being the right time to value bet. He has yet to show any real strength which allows us to discount his range a bit weighing more towards the weak end of it as opposed to the strong end. On this river your bet size looks pretty good.

Thanks all. I was really happy about the way I played this hand till he called and showed me KJ of clubs. I kinda hated myself for making the value bet for a second. Just wanted to check up on it - prolly just me being results orientated again.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

Thanks all. I was really happy about the way I played this hand till he called and showed me KJ of clubs. I kinda hated myself for making the value bet for a second. Just wanted to check up on it - prolly just me being results orientated again.

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This happens (annoyingly) more often that I like. Donkey calls 3bet/large PFR, hits TP and proceeds to put no money in, We town ourselves on river and let the head scratching begin.

Yeah for some wierd reason they're just happy to have the best hand and win whats already in the pot so just check their 2nd nuts behind out of relief or something....

The inverse of this is when they go mental with a gutshot c/r the flop then barrell the turn. Finally they river the nuts and check it behind.........somehow this is more annoying than them stacking you with a big value bet on the end.