Am I ever better than a tie in this spot.

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02-12-2009, 12:47 AM
BoondockSaint

Am I ever better than a tie in this spot.

This guy is like 9/4 over like 2k+ hands. Being so tight I'm figuring the absolute worst he can be holding is AQ, with AK and full houses having me heavily dominated. Do you guys agree or should I call this.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($29.95)
UTG+1 ($26.50)
MP1 ($27.70)
MP2 ($45.25)
Hero (CO) ($25)
Button ($24.15)
SB ($25.05)
BB ($14.55)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
4 folds, Hero raises to $1, Button calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2.25, Hero raises to $5.25, Button raises to $23.15 (All-In), Hero ........
02-12-2009, 01:02 AM
WildBobAA

Booooondock what's up? Call this.

Also, just bet the flop.
02-12-2009, 01:11 AM
BoondockSaint

Not much, just trying to get back in the game again. I pretty much stopped after neteller went down back in the day. You ever beat my geometry wars scores hehe :D
02-12-2009, 08:23 AM
bigspenda73

I believe if you can put AJ in his range it's a call
02-12-2009, 10:20 AM
WildBobAA

Quote:

Originally Posted by BoondockSaint

Not much, just trying to get back in the game again. I pretty much stopped after neteller went down back in the day. You ever beat my geometry wars scores hehe :D

Yah, I dunno how you can get scores that high.
02-12-2009, 10:49 AM
HeAVyB101

The check raise by you on the flop definitely tells him you have strength so there aren't many hands I believe he could have.

AK, AQ, AJ, A9, 99

He is a tight player but since he called on the button preflop I would definitely include AJ and A9. I personally would reraise AK, AQ, and 99 on the button against a late position raise so i don't think he has these hands. Therefore I think you have him beat here 60% of the time so I would call here.
02-12-2009, 11:30 AM
bigspenda73

we're definitely not a 60% favorite versus AK,AQ,AJ,A9,99

perhaps you meant to say AT and not A9
02-12-2009, 12:05 PM
HeAVyB101

Yes spenda but...

What I'm thinking about is the fact that the opponent didn't reraise preflop. He was on the button and had positional advantage so I would guess he would reraise preflop with AK, AQ, and 99. But since he didn't and only called, that leaves AJ, A10, and A9. We beat AJ and A10, but lose to A9. Therefore we win 60%. That's just how I see it though. Throw back some more input on this spenda im interested to hear what you have to reply.
02-12-2009, 01:17 PM
BoondockSaint

First of all, thanks for all the replies and input.

I think I can put AJ in his range, I don't think I can put A9 there. I put "calls pre flop raise" on the HUD too and it was 6.5 (I should have said that in the post). I sort of got so excited about this monster hand I actually didn't even look at the HUD and snap called and I really gotta tell myself to take at least 10 seconds to think about any large pot like this before I call. Looking at this in hindsight and how tight this guy is, on pokerstove I got 6.5 to come out to this after the flop.

Hand 0: 43.777% 28.29% 15.49% 3921 2146.50 { AsQs }
Hand 1: 56.223% 40.74% 15.49% 5646 2146.50 { 99, AJs+, AJo+ }

So I gotta call 17.90 to win 28.35 (You are supposed to take out the rake right, since you don't receive it.)

So I'm gettin 1.58 to 1 on my money.

I'm a 1.28 to 1 dog.

So yeah I guess it would be a call here. I was hoping I could find a way I was supposed to fold this preflop. SALVATION ON THE TURN, only to lose it on the river :(

Hero calls $17.90

Turn: ($48.65) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($48.65) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $48.65 | Rake: $2.40

He had AK
02-12-2009, 01:17 PM
bigspenda73

do you understand the HUD stats Boondock posted?

This player typically only plays 9% of hands and only raises 4% of hands. Therefore thinking he 3bets AQ/99, and even AK is a faulty assumption.
02-12-2009, 01:20 PM
BoondockSaint

Quote:

Originally Posted by HeAVyB101

Yes spenda but...

What I'm thinking about is the fact that the opponent didn't reraise preflop. He was on the button and had positional advantage so I would guess he would reraise preflop with AK, AQ, and 99. But since he didn't and only called, that leaves AJ, A10, and A9. We beat AJ and A10, but lose to A9. Therefore we win 60%. That's just how I see it though. Throw back some more input on this spenda im interested to hear what you have to reply.

Actually more info I should have put in the hand too. His 3bet preflop stat is .36. He has 3 bet 2 times in 551 hands so he is only reraising AA and maybe KK here.
02-12-2009, 01:21 PM
Otter_Brothface

The villain here probably is bluffing because there is only one other ace left in the entire deck of cards when you stop to think about it. That leaves full houses and bluffs. Out of those he most likely has a K or Q hand and has gone crazy with it so we can take all of his monies.
02-12-2009, 01:24 PM
BoondockSaint

Quote:

Originally Posted by Otter_Brothface

The villain here probably is bluffing because there is only one other ace left in the entire deck of cards when you stop to think about it. That leaves full houses and bluffs. Out of those he most likely has a K or Q hand and has gone crazy with it so we can take all of his monies.

With an aggression factor of 1.81 and being so tight I'm not thinking a player this tight will do this enough to figure it into the calculation. I could very well be wrong here but I hear aggression ~2 is honest and that thrown in with the 9/4 just makes me think he wouldn't do this.
02-12-2009, 01:34 PM
Otter_Brothface

No you are wrong I think because whether or not he would usually bluff he can't have much else in this hand so maybe you need to forget your HUD stats for once and look at the other guy's actions.
02-12-2009, 01:47 PM
HeAVyB101

I overlooked the HUD stats, my fault. I would definitely put him on a high ace here then. AK AQ or maaayyybbeee AJ and 99. If he had KK I'm sure he would reraise preflop since AA and KK are probably the only hands he will raise preflop. Definitely a hard situation to fold, I would get it all in for sure though.
02-12-2009, 01:50 PM
WildBobAA

Quote:

Originally Posted by Otter_Brothface

The villain here probably is bluffing because there is only one other ace left in the entire deck of cards when you stop to think about it. That leaves full houses and bluffs. Out of those he most likely has a K or Q hand and has gone crazy with it so we can take all of his monies.

:facepalm:
02-12-2009, 02:50 PM
dev

Quote:

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

Quote:

Originally Posted by Otter_Brothface

The villain here probably is bluffing because there is only one other ace left in the entire deck of cards when you stop to think about it. That leaves full houses and bluffs. Out of those he most likely has a K or Q hand and has gone crazy with it so we can take all of his monies.

:facepalm:

this.
02-12-2009, 03:04 PM
mcatdog

Quote:

Originally Posted by Otter_Brothface

No you are wrong I think because whether or not he would usually bluff he can't have much else in this hand so maybe you need to forget your HUD stats for once and look at the other guy's actions.

Are you a real person?
02-12-2009, 04:45 PM
Otter_Brothface

I am a real person yes - I believe in voicing my opinion and guesses at thing because poker is a subjective matter to many an extent - sorry if I don't always make sense you you guys.

Otter
02-12-2009, 05:40 PM
WildBobAA

It's all good otter, keep fighting the good fight.
02-12-2009, 05:44 PM
lolzzz_321

Yo boondock I have been loling @ ur posts ;) in a good way. We should play COD sometime, I'm getting decent... P.S. I fold :)
02-12-2009, 05:54 PM
BoondockSaint

Cool I'm down. I actually haven't played online much since we last played. I didn't reactivate my gold membership but I have a free month card on my desk from when my 360 broke and I had to send it in. I'm going to be in Indianapolis all weekend but next week sometime we can smoke some fools.
02-12-2009, 05:58 PM
BoondockSaint

Quote:

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

Quote:

Originally Posted by BoondockSaint

Not much, just trying to get back in the game again. I pretty much stopped after neteller went down back in the day. You ever beat my geometry wars scores hehe :D

Yah, I dunno how you can get scores that high.

This came from wasting like probably 50 hours on geometry wars 1. I really loved that game, I think maybe more than 2. It took me forever to get the survive 1 million achievement. At least a few months. I think I had em all in 2 in less than a week.
02-12-2009, 11:47 PM
ATOTHEC101

Don't check raise this flop as pfr, it turns your hand completely face up, just c bet for $1.50ish.
02-13-2009, 01:00 AM
texa8

would a player with such stats have all PP's in their range? you say 99 could possibly be in their range, but if so is it 22+? or say 88+???
so 22+, AQ/J+?
thats such a tough decsion.. personally i couldnt see myself folding that.
02-13-2009, 02:48 AM
BoondockSaint

Quote:

Originally Posted by texa8

would a player with such stats have all PP's in their range? you say 99 could possibly be in their range, but if so is it 22+? or say 88+???
so 22+, AQ/J+?
thats such a tough decsion.. personally i couldnt see myself folding that.

Well they were all in their range preflop for set value. Post flop I take them all out because the only one he is staying with is 99 for the full house.