Delayed cbetting questions/criticism

This is my winning essay, cross-posted in the win money, coaching from nutsinho thread. I agree with nutsinho that I should have discussed bluffing more. I also suspect that many will have a problem with my supposed ranges. I wrote the essay as a FR player guessing at 6max ranges. Since writing this I've played only 6max and have learned a ton.

Delayed Continuation Betting

A continuation bet, or cbet, is, as the preflop raiser (PFR), continuing or following through with a bet on the flop, whether for value or as a bluff. A delayed cbet is deferring the option to continue the betting by checking the flop and instead betting the turn (or even checking the turn and betting the river).

The cbet is especially powerful in NLHE because a single two-card holding will only make a pair or better ~33% of the time on the flop, meaning that if you cbet and your opponent believes your show of strength, you will win the pot much of the time when he hits nothing, and some of the time when he hits something weak enough that he may not want to continue with, i.e. bottom pair. If you obtain the initiative preflop and press it on the flop, you will win a majority of the pots in which neither you nor your opponent hit the flop, which is the most basic measure of whether you are outplaying the opposition.

It would seem that cbetting 100% of flops would be +EV; however, the problem is that with awareness of the power of cbetting nearly universal in the poker community, it has become highly exploitable, with the player without initiative either floating or raising flops where the preflop raiser’s range is behind the preflop caller’s range. So, as the PFR, to prevent becoming exploitable, we are looking to only cbet flops where our range is ahead of our opponent’s range and where neither range is hit by the flop.

Delayed cbetting comes into play on those flops where our range is behind our opponent’s range. Cbetting these flops with all of our preflop raising range will not show a positive expectation against reasonably-skilled opponents. This does not mean, however, that we have to give up on the pot. If our opponent checks to us on the flop and again on the turn (or checks in position on the flop), he has narrowed his range to the point where our range is again ahead of his, which means a bet on the turn will show a positive expectation.

Example in a 2-bet pot:

A shorthanded NLHE game with six players, we raise UTG to 3BB and everyone folds to the player in the SB, who calls, and the BB folds. The flop comes 5Club 7Heart 9Heart. The SB checks to us. Let’s say our range for raising UTG in a shorthanded game is {22+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo,QJo} and our opponent, who we estimate to be a somewhat loose-passive but thinking player, has a range for calling an UTG raise in the SB of {QQ-22,AQs-AJs,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo-AJo,KQo}. Preflop, our range is a 53:47 favorite over his. After this flop, which hits his range harder than ours, SB’s range becomes a 52:48 favorite. Against a less aware villain, betting this flop might show a profit, but we know that our opponent knows that his range is stronger on this flop than ours, so a bet here with all of our range would be, in a vacuum, a –EV play. So we instead divide our range into two subranges, and manipulate our opponent’s range so that all of our lines can be profitable.

Nut+air subrange: These are the hands that we are willing to make a continuation bet with, those hands that we gain the most from by betting. The nut hands are ahead of our opponent’s range and if our opponent folds to our air we profit immensely. Moreover, the combination of nut and air hands in our cbetting range gives our play balance. Our subrange here is {22-55,77,99,KK,AA,Axhh,QJ/KJ/KQ combos without flush draws}.

Medium-strength (showdown value) subrange: This is the subrange that we are going for a delayed cbet with. These hands may be best but cannot stand a reraise on the flop and become weaker if called. This range is {66,88,TT-QQ,Ax,QJ/KJ/KQ combos with flush draws}. These hands can improve greatly by seeing a free turn and do not want to bloat the pot. If our opponent checks to us on the turn again, even if we haven’t improved, we can make the delayed cbet and likely take it down. Our opponent has shown weakness twice, and many of these hands are likely to be best now.

Example in a 3-bet pot:

A loose-aggressive player opens on the HJ in a six-handed NLHE game for 3.5BB, we 3b from the BTN to 11BB, the blinds fold, and the HJ calls. The flop is ADiamond 7Spade 5Spade. HJ checks. Our range for 3betting this player is {AA,KK,QQ ,AK,67s,78s,89s,75s,86s,97s,22-66}. We estimate villain’s 3bet calling range to be {KK,QQ,JJ,TT,99,AQ,AJs,KQs,QJs,TJs}. On this flop, our range is 48.5:51.5 against our opponent’s, another situation where betting our entire range is going to be –EV. Again we’re dividing our range into two subranges, those that we check, and those that go for the delayed cbet.

Nut+air subrange: {AA,AK,6s8s,7s9s,75s,22-66} These hands play easily against a c/r, which we expect with a common frequency on A-high flops in 3b pots.

Medium-strength+weaker draw subrange: {KK,QQ, 67s,78s, 97s,89s/86s(no spades)} Betting KK here folds out all worse hands and keeps all better hands in. Betting QQ folds out all worse hands and folds only one better hand (KK). None of the hands in this range can continue against a c/r and all can benefit from seeing a free turn. If villain checks to us again on the turn it is much less likely that he has an A since it is rare for players to go for a c/r twice in a row. We can bet and often get value with our high pairs and folds with our junk.

In conclusion, on flops where our opponent’s range is ahead of ours, it is often wiser to cbet only a polarized range, and to go for a delayed cbet with medium-strength holdings. In this way we manipulate our opponents’ ranges such that we can get value often when we are ahead and get folds often when we are behind while at the same time avoiding building a huge pot with mediocre holdings and adding balance to our flop checks and turn bets.


Feel free to comment, ask questions, and discuss other aspects of delayed cbetting that I may not have covered.

TY for a great read!

I thought it was a pretty accurate read. I especially liked the point that when we open in lp our opponents flat calling range is ahead of ours on a lot of flops. I also thought you put very well how you should play handsA few aspects I thought you missed.

1. You raise pre and get a call from the blinds. you have 65s, flop comes AK2 rainbow. He checks. Here you have essentially no equity against your opponents range. Yet, this is a great cbet board. But because you have no equity your flop cbet bluff would have to show an immediate profit for it to be +EV, which it doesn't versus a lot of opponents. If we decide versus an opponent we think its +EV to cbet 85% of our hands, check behind 10% as made hands, and check behind 5% non made hands, this would be a perfect candidate for the checking behind non made hand range.

2. When facing average to bad players/regulars, I find the most unbalanced range I face is call pre, check flop (I check behind), check turn. That range is nearly always super weak because players will lead the turn if they have any sort of good hand or draw. If your only checking behind weak made hands for pot control and value, then we have no way of exploiting this range. And since our opponents expect us to bet our air on high cbet boards, they likely wont try to make big calls. Our range is going to be pretty balanced anyways.

Thanks for the comments ISF. I had mentally noted to discuss point 2 but it was neglected. There was a trace of it in the comment about people not going for a c/r twice in a row.

Point 1 is very interesting and I'm still trying to wrap my head around it. When you say "this would be a perfect candidate for the checking behind non made hand range" what do you mean by "this?"

Well, lets look at that same scenario AK2 board. When I say perfect candidate I'm talking about forming a range. Would it be good to check behind AK, even just sometimes, on this board? Well, if our opponent was very spewy and lead into us on the turn 100% of the time we checked behind, and then also barrelled the river much of the time, then you could argue yes. BUT in general, AK is way too strong for a check behind range. It offers balance against aggressive leaders to check behinds, but it loses its value against worse Aces and A2, or any light call downs we may get to three barrels. We also lose balance in our cbetting range. If an opponent is bluffing is a lot with turn leads we are still going to be able to call him down easily with a hand like Ax or Kx, so those are other great candidates for check behind.

Since when forming a range we decided we are not going to cbet 100% of the time (which i arbitrarily did here, but I do not cbet 100% of the time on good cbet boards like AK4, KQ3, etc.), then we have to decide which hands we don't cbet. A hand with very poor equity that we want to just give up on or only make a high % bluff on is a good hand to not cbet with.

lol I think I rambled more than necessary.

lol not at all, thanks for clarifying. I've been facing a lot of villains recently who'll spaz and barrel turn and river for like pot-sized bets with A high if I check the flop.

Really nice read!
And gratz for your spot in THE MATCH ;-)

I just have a comment on the 3bet section.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Parasurama

Medium-strength+weaker draw subrange: {KK,QQ, 67s,78s, 97s,89s/86s(no spades)} Betting KK here folds out all worse hands and keeps all better hands in. Betting QQ folds out all worse hands and folds only one better hand (KK). None of the hands in this range can continue against a c/r and all can benefit from seeing a free turn. If villain checks to us again on the turn it is much less likely that he has an A since it is rare for players to go for a c/r twice in a row. We can bet and often get value with our high pairs and folds with our junk.

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Actually, c-bet KK on a A high 3b pot is not going to fold out only weaker hands. This would depend on villain. Some villains would call with QQ-88, knowing that this is a perfect flop to c-bet. I think to c-bet or not this kind of flop with QQ-KK depends on the type of villain and our position (e.g. if we are IP vs an aggro villain it's better to check-behind so that he can bluff TURN/RIVER).
Plus, there is something else quite important: the size of a 3bet pot is quite important to want to take it down.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jimmy44

Really nice read!
And gratz for your spot in THE MATCH ;-)

I just have a comment on the 3bet section.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Parasurama

Medium-strength+weaker draw subrange: {KK,QQ, 67s,78s, 97s,89s/86s(no spades)} Betting KK here folds out all worse hands and keeps all better hands in. Betting QQ folds out all worse hands and folds only one better hand (KK). None of the hands in this range can continue against a c/r and all can benefit from seeing a free turn. If villain checks to us again on the turn it is much less likely that he has an A since it is rare for players to go for a c/r twice in a row. We can bet and often get value with our high pairs and folds with our junk.

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Actually, c-bet KK on a A high 3b pot is not going to fold out only weaker hands. This would depend on villain. Some villains would call with QQ-88, knowing that this is a perfect flop to c-bet. I think to c-bet or not this kind of flop with QQ-KK depends on the type of villain and our position (e.g. if we are IP vs an aggro villain it's better to check-behind so that he can bluff TURN/RIVER).
Plus, there is something else quite important: the size of a 3bet pot is quite important to want to take it down.

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True, true, I haven't played against many villains who will call with QQ-88 because they don't believe I have the ace.

Also I kind of took the easy way out by putting us in position in these examples. I'm so terrible at playing OOP in 3bet pots.

you spoke about checking medium strength hands like KK, QQ on A high board behind, and delayed cbetting turn.. when villain leads turn however, as you've mentioned happens with air a lot, typically we are looking at calling and getting to a cheap showdown? it feels like calling on the turn reveals our hand a whole lot, and puts us in a tough spot when observant player leads river with a large bet?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by texa8

you spoke about checking medium strength hands like KK, QQ on A high board behind, and delayed cbetting turn.. when villain leads turn however, as you've mentioned happens with air a lot, typically we are looking at calling and getting to a cheap showdown? it feels like calling on the turn reveals our hand a whole lot, and puts us in a tough spot when observant player leads river with a large bet?

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if you think he'll do that as a bluff, there's no reason why we can't call him twice

but another the problem with checking KK on Axx is because we're more likely to get value bet really thin by TPNK that realizes that we have middle pair or a similar hand to what we have (JJ-KK)

so actually both of those things are a problem
also, if villain checks A83 flop and I have 77 I will c/f turn because I think it's a lot of 99-KK and Ax
but if he cbets I will often call because he would cbet his air
so actually betting KK would be superior because it gets value from worse

A+, would read again

also congrats on proof reading, FTR should hire you.

IDK how I missed this post the first time! Great thread and contribution, Para

tyty, I would love to edit for FTR and think I would be good at it, don't really have any credentials though

@texa: iopq pretty much answered the question. I've learned that whether or not to cbet KK is very dependent on your opponent and your own particular style. But definitely if you think your opponent is good enough to bet turn and barrel river as a bluff there's nothing wrong with calling down. There's also nothing wrong with not cbetting Ax.