Edit: this HH wasn't smart - it prompted me to think about being smarter.
Earlier today, I posted about 3betting JJ/TT and spenda and BJaust basically said "think about this, Robb." And I did. Here's a HH that came up in my session. Villain is 12/9 and agro over 1k hands, but he's been 3bet 9 times. He's folded 6, called 2 and raised 1.
$0.25/$0.5 Deep No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($50.00)
UTG 1 ($50.75)
MP1 ($30.90)
MP2 ($110.15)
MP3 ($61.70)
CO ($51.20)
Hero (BTN) ($57.45)
SB ($45.75)
BB ($112.50)
Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is BTN :2h: :ks:
UTG raises to $2, 5 folds, Hero raises to $6.75
All right, K2o is hopeless against his range, but he's a nit. So we can 3bet him light. We risk $6.75 for a chance to win his $2 plus $.75 blinds. That's 27 to 11, or just better than 2.5 to 1. So we need fold equity of 2.5 / (1 + 2.5) = .71.
So I learned a couple of things by analyzing the hand. First, I can "price myself in" with a slightly smaller 3bet size, say $6.00. Second, as played, I've gotta be able to take down about 5% of hands postflop, but I'll get to postflop against the top 10% of his PFR, or only against the top 1 - 1.5% of all NLHE hands. We do have position and initiative, but committing any more chips to this pot is going to be dicey in the extreme unless we flop gin.
This is a better play if we choose hands to 3bet light that aren't quite so hopeless: sc's or Axs might be better choices. We'll need to pick up the occasional hand postflop to make this +EV, so we need SOME value to 3bet light here.
With JJ/TT, 3betting is DEAD WRONG. We should cold call. His UTG range of 8% is likely AJ+, KQ and 88+ and then maybe a couple suited broadways or 66/77. Hmm...PokerStove says we've got 50% equity against that range (52% if he raises the 77/66 type hands instead of broadways). A call is correct here if we think we can outplay him postflop. With position, that's probably true because he's a weak-tight player who has learned to cbet.
This guy has a flop aggression percentage of 50% and cbets 80%. But he only bets the turn 33% after a flop cbet and call. I always have trouble figuring out what to do with cold call here with JJ/TT type hands. So let's consider a few flops (other than 9-high, where I'd know what to do :P ):
1. A94 rainbow
2. KQ9 two-suited
3. Q42 rainbow
Typical WA/WB situation (where I'm typically lost). Against a cbet on all three flops, I think we call one street and see if he'll check the turn. If he does on 1 and 3, and the turn's a blank, we probably call the river. On flop 2, we have some value. We probably try to call a small cbet and hope to improve. Not all 6 outs may be live, though.
Against a check, I think we check behind flops 1 and 2, and bet flop 3 ourselves. Obviously, if we improve on flop 2 or spike our set on any of them, we bet the turn, or call his turn bet looking to get it all-in on the river most times.
On the turn, if he follows up a cbet with another value-looking bet, it's time to ditch. This isn't a guy who 2barrels much. If he checks a second time, we're facing a polarized range with a tiny bit of set or better hands and a bunch of air. Probably time to bet for value, depending upon board. Definitely w/ flops 2 and 3, imo.
Summary is that we'd like to take the initiative on the turn and get some chips in when it appears we're ahead, and otherwise play pot control and call at least one street and possibly two in some situations.
That's about all I can of. Other than the high "folds to 3bet stat," a PFR around 9 or 10 is pretty typical in my FR 50nl games on Full Tilt. I think I'll start working on taking a look at flop/turn stats before a 3bet/flat decision, and use these ideas to try to find the best line.
I would be interested to hear anyone's thoughts, especially Spenda or BJ since they started me thinking about it.
