I'm seeing more and more of these threads lately which, to me, is a great sign. When someone is looking to move up they typically are winning! There are many questions you should ask yourself when determining whether or not to take a shot at the next level:
1. Am I winning money at my current stakes?
This seems relatively obvious but if you are not winning money at your current stakes there is absolutely no way you should move up. The fact that people at 5nl "chase and always hit their draws" is not a reason to go play 25nl. If you cannot beat players at lower stakes there is no reason to think you can beat them at higher levels.
Being a winning player would typically mean that over a large sample of hands (20k+ hands) you have proven to be a profitable poker player. A solid winrate at microstakes poker would be earning 1 buy-in every 2,000 hands. This would be referred to as earning 5bb/100, 2.5BB/100, or 2.5ptbb/100. Winning more than this is also common, however, winning any less than this should be cause for concern.
2. Why I am a winning player?
If you cannot answer this question, chances are you are not ready for the next level. The number one reason why a player makes money is because he or she exploits his opponents tendencies by making adjustments. A lot of these are subconscious and just ingrained into our typical thought processes. However, just because you have read a PF chart and heard something about continuation betting does not mean you understand why you make money. As you progress through levels your opponents will make less mistakes and the ones they do make will not be as exploitable. Therefore, understanding how to adjust and the reasons for doing so is critical.
3. Am I properly bankrolled for a full shot at the next level?
A "full shot" is much different than a typical shot, or attempt to move to the next level. A full shot would be a cushion of 10+ buyins that you are willing to lose before moving back down to your current stake. In general a player should move down when they only have 30 buy-ins for the lower of the two levels.
Take the move from 5nl to 10nl for an example. 30 buy-ins for 5nl would be $150, therefore to take a full shot at 10nl a player would need a $250 bankroll and MUST move down when their roll reaches $150. There is a TON of variance in moving up. For one reason or another you will find yourself making plays you never made at lower levels and it will cause fluctuations in your winrate. Also, your opponents will be better, which means your mistakes will be magnified compared to lower levels, which, one again, will affect your winrate.
Giving yourself this big of a cushion is designed to take a lot of the pressure off of shot-taking and to allow for some typical variance.
4. Am I prepared to move down if I lose?
This is the point in time where your shot has not gone well, whether it is variance or poor play I guarantee that you will attribute it to running bad. This thinking is fine as long as you move down. Chances are you did not run well but that you also played poorly. As long as move back to the lower of the two stakes you are doing better than 90% of poker players.
This can be a humbling experience, as most new players will sky-rocket through the microstakes games, making it to $25 or $50nl fairly quickly. After a shot failed take time to review HH's, discuss your observations with other players, and get back to the grind! You will eventually beat the higher limits; however, it is impossible to do so if you bust your entire account. Throw your ego out the window and move on.
