Biting my Lip: Hand #2

The second in a 2-part psychosis.

Villain runs 40/7 over about 50 or so hands.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) -

Button ($4.70)
SB ($10.05)
Villain (BB) ($8)
UTG ($24.65)
UTG+1 ($1.85)
MP1 ($2.45)
MP2 ($2)
MP3 ($1.55)
Hero (CO) ($11.90)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A:heart:, K:heart:
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, Villain raises to $8 (All-In), Hero calls $7.60

Flop: ($16.05) 2:club:9:spade:5:club: (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($16.05) 5:diamond: (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($16.05) 4:spade: (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $16.05 | Rake: $1.60

he's raising 7% so his 3 bet range is probably gonna be miniscule , along the lines of AA,KK maybe QQ .Against the first two you are stuffed , he has a monster with QQ+ you are 65:35 underdog and being offered evens. I'd fold.
Another question is why were you at the table the money is after you.How much did you think you were going to make out of the shorties you had position on?

Aye it was a ridiculous play.

I didn't play the session very long and I think a few short stacks came in later on. Glad you make that point since i have a tendency to get stuck at tables.

if the shorties came in afterwards why not change seats and get position on the large stacks while the seat was there

meh trouble is we're just never going to build a range where we have more than 40% equity UNLESS we feel this player wouldn't do this with KK/AA and could just be steaming and shipping it in really light. I probably call, take a note, and move on. I'm not saying calling is correct, but we have AKsoooooooooted, bleh.

I'd fold to a reraise all in. Yeah he could have something like J-J or Q-Q but even then its a coin flip. I never like flipping a coin in a cash game unless i have AA or KK. So for me this is an easy fold under these circumstances. I bet you could outplay this guy 90% of the time seeing flops with him so why risk your whole stack against a stupid preflop AI.

none of your options are really bad here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by RoyalProdigy

I never like flipping a coin in a cash game

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This is incorrect and faulty thinking. We should always be pushing an edge, therefore with dead money in the pot and being a "coinflip" we should be happy to call.

"Not wanting to take a flip" is what some 75-year old live nit says at your local casino's $55 daily tournament when he has 5 BBs.

Dead money in this case means you need 47.4% equity against the opponents shoving range. If up against AA, KK hero has 23.1% equity. Against AA, KK, AK: 40.2%. Against TT-JJ, AK: 48.4%. Absent prior reads (shipping light, playing AA, KK slower to extract, player steaming etc) this is a fold imo. Potentially expensive way to get notes on people.

Or maybe I'm wrong and noone plays AA, KK this way (huge overbet shove) hoping instead to build a pot with them always and only overbetting the "strong but vulnerable" like AK itself.