Profiting from our opponent's range: Checking behind turn
This is an initial stab at level 2 thinking (edit: According to bjsaust, this is actually level 1 thinking. My bad.), a scenario where thinking about our opponent's entire range of holdings can affect how we play a TPGK hand. In this case, I try to show that checking behind on the turn can actually increase our profitability against someone who is not a calling station (calling 3 streets with a hand that doesn't beat 2nd pair top kicker).
A lot of the time we get the idea that aggression means we need to "bet-bet-bet!" We need to c-bet a lot and we need to bet hard with a hand like TPGK or better. There have already been plenty of posts addressing c-betting, so I will attempt to address something I haven't seen much of: checking behind on the turn with a pretty good hand. I will show that even when we are beating our opponent's range on both the turn and the river, checking behind the turn and betting the river can actually be the most profitable line to take.
The first thing to think about is, "What can my opponent be calling me with here?" For a lot of players at the lowest stakes, the answer is probably "any part of the board," especially on the flop. When we're betting every street, when we're playing against stronger opponents, or as we move up in stakes, however, our opponents will start to find the fold button a lot more often. So let's say a hand goes something like this:
Hero (button) dealt: A:c: J:s:
Preflop: Everyone folds, hero raises to 4x, BB calls
Now what is the big blind calling with? What is this player's tendencies? For a lot of the low stakes players you'll run into, this is something like:
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T6s+,95s+,84s+,73s+,63s+,5 3s+,43s,A2o+,K8o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
That is any pair, any A, any suited K, Q, or J, a lot of suited connectors and gappers, and a few other hands. That is 46% of hands, but I have seen people call a button raise from the BB both wider and narrower than this, so I think it's a good starting point for our low stakes opponents.
Flop (8.5x pot): A:s: T:h: 5:c:
BB checks, Hero bets 6x, BB calls
What could BB be calling with here? Certainly any A. Also a lot of Ts and even 5s and other pocket pairs. Also probably 2 broadway cards that give them the gutshot, but other than that there are not many draws out there. Let's narrow their previous range down now that they have called our flop bet:
22+,A2s+,KTs+,K5s,QTs+,Q5s,JTs,J5s,T6s+,95s,85s,75 s,65s,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o
or 31.8% of hands (BB is calling the flop 31.8/46 = 69% of the time).
Against this range, we are a whopping 75% favorite, so we're liking where we are for the moment. Now let's say the turn comes and it's a Q (K would have a similar result):
Turn (20.5x pot): Q:d:
BB checks, Hero ???
Let's see what that card did for the range above. The following is from Pokerstove (if you don't have it, get it!).
Code:
Board: As Th 5c Qd
Hand 0: 71.248% 67.88% 03.36% 7527 373.00 { AcJs }
Hand 1: 28.752% 25.39% 03.36% 2815 373.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, K5s, QTs+, Q5s, JTs, J5s, T6s+, 95s, 85s, 75s, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }
That card actually improved the equity of villain's range somewhat. This is largely because of hands like QQ, Q5s, KJ, and QT. Does that mean that we should be scared of the Q? Absolutely not. Does that mean we should bet here? Not necessarily. If we bet here, a lot of the hands that called us on the flop that we were beating are going to be folding. Here's a new range for BB after they check, we bet, and they call. I have left in all hands that are a paired ace or better (of course this includes 2 pair and sets) and all pair+gutshot hands.
Code:
Board: As Th 5c Qd
Hand 0: 62.262% 57.47% 04.79% 4476 373.00 { AcJs }
Hand 1: 37.738% 32.95% 04.79% 2566 373.00 { TT+, 55, A2s+, KTs+, K5s, QTs+, Q5s, JTs, J5s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
The above range is 25.3% of hands, meaning villain is calling on the turn with 80% of the hands he called with on the flop.
Now we aren't looking quite as good. We are still doing pretty good against the range of hands that is typically calling us, so a bet is still likely to be correct, but I will show later that this actually could be a good spot to check behind. Let's say we bet about 2/3 pot (we don't want to chase off the worse pairs and bad draws that we're beating) and they call with the above range.
Hero bets 14x, BB calls.
River (48.5x pot): 6:s:
BB checks, Hero ???
What did that river do for villain's range?
Code:
Board: As Th 5c Qd 6s
Hand 0: 61.143% 59.43% 01.71% 104 3.00 { AcJs }
Hand 1: 38.857% 37.14% 01.71% 65 3.00 { TT+, 55, A2s+, KTs+, K5s, QTs+, Q5s, JTs, J5s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
It actually helped it? That's because on the turn we still had outs to beat the hands that were ahead of us (sets and 2 pairs), but now we're out of cards and can only win if we're ahead or if we can bluff out a better hand (very unlikely on this board with the hand we have). So let's say we bet here on the river. What could our opponent possibly call us with? Let's say our opponent is a bit of a calling station and will call with any hand JJ or better:
Code:
Board: As Th 5c Qd 6s
Hand 0: 54.362% 52.35% 02.01% 78 3.00 { AcJs }
Hand 1: 45.638% 43.62% 02.01% 65 3.00 { TT+, 55, A2s+, KJs+, QTs+, Q5s, A2o+, KJo+, QTo+ }
We are still doing all right, so in this case, betting 3 streets is absolutely the way to go. But we've been showing a lot of aggression throughout the hand, so let's see what happens if we're only called by KK or better, as we might expect from a more reasonable opponent:
Code:
Board: As Th 5c Qd 6s
Hand 0: 45.600% 43.20% 02.40% 54 3.00 { AcJs }
Hand 1: 54.400% 52.00% 02.40% 65 3.00 { QQ+, TT, 55, A2s+, KJs, QTs, Q5s, A2o+, KJo, QTo }
Now we're actually behind our opponent's calling range on the river, and our best move is to check behind and take down a pretty good-sized pot.
Instead, let's rewind and say that we checked behind on the turn. So villain is bringing his entire turn range to the river:
River (20.5x pot): 6:s:
BB checks, Hero ???
Code:
Board: As Th 5c Qd 6s
Hand 0: 69.388% 68.16% 01.22% 167 3.00 { AcJs }
Hand 1: 30.612% 29.39% 01.22% 72 3.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, K5s, QTs+, Q5s, JTs, J5s, T6s+, 95s, 85s, 75s, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }
Now we are a big favorite against his range of holdings. Moreover, because we checked on the turn, our hand is looking kind of weak. We can bet a pretty big amount here and get called by a TON of worse hands. Let's assume our villain is somewhat competent and folds all hands worse than a pair of 6s. Considering the way we played the hand, it's not too unrealistic to believe that 77 would call here after they called on the flop with it.
Code:
Board: As Th 5c Qd 6s
Hand 0: 64.789% 63.38% 01.41% 135 3.00 { AcJs }
Hand 1: 35.211% 33.80% 01.41% 72 3.00 { 55+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, Q5s, JTs, T6s+, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }
This represents 27.5% of all hands, meaning villain is calling the river 86% of the time.
So now, because of our check behind on the turn, we are way ahead of a river calling range. Moreover, because we showed weakness on the turn, we can put in a sizeable value bet on the river.
So when we bet the turn, we bet about 2/3 pot (14x), get called by 80% of villain's range, and then check behind on the river with a hand that is ahead 61% of the time. If we instead check the turn and bet the river, we can bet something like 8/9 pot (18x into 20.5x) and get called by 86% of villain's range while being ahead 65% of the time. In other words, by checking the turn and betting the river, we stand to increase our winnings this hand by more than 3.2BBs on average! That is not an insignificant amount!
So it turns out that against anyone who is not a total calling station, checking behind on the turn and then betting the river in this instance would be much more profitable than betting the turn and betting the river or betting the turn and checking behind on the river.
One more benefit of checking behind with a hand like TPGK is that we show our opponents that a check doesn't necessarily mean we've given up on the hand. Quite often we c-bet a missed flop and then shutdown when called, even when we risk folding the best hand. By mixing up our play and checking behind at appropriate times with hands like TPGK, we make it a lot harder for our opponents to steal our pots or predict what we're holding.
In summary this was just a long-winded way of showing you, with real cards and real numbers, that bet-bet-bet isn't always the right approach. But if you've seen your opponent call down 3 bets with 2nd pair or worse, or if the board is more drawish (this board was quite dry), the right play with a hand like TPGK is to fire away! :D
Caveat: This post is not totally realistic because it assumes an opponent who never bets or raises, but I still think it's a good starting point. And actually, if we can assume that after our check behind on the turn, our opponent will lead less than 8/9 pot on the river with some hands that are beating us and will bluff with some hands that have no showdown value, the increased value of checking behind on the turn is actually better than what I show here.
Another caveat: Note that a critical aspect of this post is that we are in position and we are willing to call a reasonable bet on most rivers. If we are out of position or if there are a lot of times that we won't like our hand on the river, we are likely to be better off betting on the turn with a hand like TPGK.
Comments? Questions?
