Need help with AI moments

Let me bring you all up to speed pretty quick. After joining FTR in October, in 6 weeks a built a BR sufficien to play $25NL. I wavered back and forth for about a month, but decided to stay put at $10NL when I was back to $500. My BR dwindled slightly until year end, but I still managed to be slightly profitable for the year. I cashed out a little over $100 on Stars to take my BR down to $10NL, and decided to restart 2009 plugging holes and working on my game. I was up about 4BI by the 3rd, but I'm down 8BI since then. I just finished up a session down 1.6BI, and I'm trying desperately to figure out where I'm going wrong.

So far in 2009, I've played about 4k hands. Not as many as I would like, but I'm fully employed with a wife and 2 kids...waddya gonna do?

HEM has my stats @ 14/9/4.45, 3.3% 3bet and 53.4% W$SD. I feel like I'm playing a very tight, aggressive game. I've been working on ranges, etc, but as of yet have not had an 'ah-ha' moment. For the most part, it seems like a grind along great, but loose too many hands where either myself of my shorty opp are AI. Today was such a case. Over about 500 hands, there were 12 AI moments.

I've posted these as a session on weaktight, and I'm hoping a few of you would take a look and let me know how I'm doing. I won a few, but lost more. My losses on AI moments in today's session accounts for almost exactly my total losses for the day. HEM shows I'm running about $8 below my AI EV.

http://weaktight.com/s10340

I dont understand the link. I clicked it and confusion ensued.

Get a 500 dollar br and play lame/tight/aggro/winning/lame low stakes poker at 25 nl. Build and move from there. Once you've seen a shit-ton of hands, the stuff posted on these forums will start to make a lot of sense.

What's confusing about the link? It has 12 hands I played today where I feel like I should be head, but instead I'm way down. It's been like this for a long time. Too long to be variance, IMO. It's a pattern that has to be pointing to a leak, I just don't know what it is. I'm tempted to go weak-tight against these moves, but I know that's exploitable.

And FWIW, your post doesn't help. I've played a shit-ton of hands, and I feel like I understand a lot of what is said in the BC. I'm posting this because it's obvious I'm missing something, I need help figuring out what it is.

Just saying 'stuff posted on these forums will start to make a lot of sense' is frustrating as hell.

If you're losing all-ins with shorties you probably aren't really doing anything wrong. Especially since you're tight pre.

IF you're using your eV as a metric, then running low means you're getting unlucky.

Like rilla said, your aha moments are likely going to come from hand volume. Just table select and try to take the easy money.

KB I feel your pain cuz this sounds exactly like what I've been going through for a couple weeks now. I run pretty strong through the majority of my sessions but then there are a couple hands that go AI that turn my session into a looser. I'm really going to keep an eye on this thread in hopes I'll learn as well. Sorry that I am unable to really contribute but atleast you know your not alone!

In your AK hand against Rainbow J, what hands did you put him on in the turn? He obv. checked the flop to CR in retrospect, but you should be a little suspicious of his large turn bet. I'm probably stacking off here too b/c he could have a weaker Ace often. Stove his range and see what comes up.

The K8o hand, I'm not really that inclined to stack off w/TPnK facing all that action, but you kinda have to call his turn shove if you're gonna raise him there (which I wouldn't).

Most of these are just ridiculously standard. You're getting koolered, not running well, but generally playing well I think.

KB, I also feel your pain and have been struggling for six weeks as well. Just when I think I am moving forward...I drop 4 buy-ins and feel lost. I haven't had any huge "ah ha" moments but I've had some minor ones...I find I simply have to throw away top-pairs and some two-pair when facing heat. I know I'm losing money trying to punish villians for calling me with worse hands (even when they hit).

I think another minor ah-ha is that I was pushing late. I think in the past I was stacking-off after the villain was already ahead. I'm trying to push earlier now and it seems to be more correct.

I'm also interested in this thread. I think many of us share the same feelings at this stage of our poker development. My personal plan is to just keeping plowing through...thousands of hands until the brick hits me in the head with more ah ha's.

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Originally Posted by Illfavor

In your AK hand against Rainbow J, what hands did you put him on in the turn? He obv. checked the flop to CR in retrospect, but you should be a little suspicious of his large turn bet. I'm probably stacking off here too b/c he could have a weaker Ace often. Stove his range and see what comes up.

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Villan was running pretty with 15/9. I figured he hit his Ace and had me on a draw. Stove give me 77% equity against his range on the turn.

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Originally Posted by Illfavor

The K8o hand, I'm not really that inclined to stack off w/TPnK facing all that action, but you kinda have to call his turn shove if you're gonna raise him there (which I wouldn't).

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This is the one hand where I really don't like my play. I hate my turn play here. I should have folded.

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Originally Posted by Illfavor

Most of these are just ridiculously standard. You're getting koolered, not running well, but generally playing well I think.

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I'd like to believe this, but I've been running bad for about 6 weeks now and I cannot figure out where I'm going wrong. It really has me questioning if I can ever beat this game or not.

Just playing hands by itself won't do it. You need to constantly be experimenting with your game (within reason). Not only will this keep you more interested in the game, you'll likely stumble upon a play or thought process that gives you a powerful realization. If you just keep playing hands the frustration will likely increase and boredom/tilt will ensue. So yes, play a lot of hands but also keep trying new things.

I wasn't able to figure out how to view the session either but admittedly I didn't try for longer than a few minutes.

Regardless, if you're not improving it's because of your mindset when you play and when you review. One destructive attitude I overcame was a focus on winning money, especially when I was stuck. Instead of thinking deeply about hands and making correct decisions I would get married to pots with weak hands or just hope to flop the nuts. This is probably not your issue but you have to work to change whatever negative mindset it is that is stunting your growth. You have to be constantly self-critical and welcome outside criticism, yet confident in your decisions. You have to always be open to trying new things, and be able to independently evaluate their affect on your game. You have to be incredibly dynamic, flowing perfectly with the changes at the table. You have to be cutthroat, unwilling to give up an edge against anyone. You have to be emotionally immovable, unwavering despite the loss of a hand or result of a session. When you are all these things, the progression of your skill will be rapid, natural, and empowering. Realize that when you say that you're missing something, nobody here will be able to tell you explicitly what it is. And even if someone could, I strongly believe that it wouldn't be productive for your growth as a player.

With regard to AI situations: Yes, the pots are big and they can change the outcome of a particular session. However, the decisions in my opinion are among the simplest. You have to evaluate your equity against your opponent's range and compare that to the odds that the pot is laying you. If you are the one raising AI, throw in fold equity to the calculation. If you are having trouble calculating your opponents' ranges or fold equities, the best way to get better is to see and properly integrate a large number of hands into your poker knowledge base. This is why rilla and swiggidy advised you to play more hands. If you are having trouble with the math, there are plenty of resources in software (pokerstove), books, and online. Playing more hands will also give you more situations to think about mathematically and evaluate with pokerstove. I realize it's probably frustrating when they say "play more hands" but they definitely know what they are talking about.

I hope this helps. I think it's quite possible that I went overboard and you already know all of this but were just tilting after some frustrating sessions.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I dont understand the link. I clicked it and confusion ensued.

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Just hit the Replay button at the bottom, AFAIK.

coolman, I think I'm in the same boat, only I think your better than me at this point. I'm gonna start getting more involved in the forum, posting hands, reading books, etc. to try to evolve. In my last losing session, I realised that I was tilted and still called the River bet when I knew that it made villians hand. The call may have still been correct, given the money in the pot, but it was the first time that I recognized that tilt was affecting me. I was tilted because it seemed that everytime I had a good or damn good hand, I still got my ass handed to me. Sometimes I folded and sometimes I called, with bad results. I know that shit happens in poker, but I also know that I may have played poorly and that it's not all negative variance.

Anyway, I'm rooting for you and GL.

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Originally Posted by PlayToWin

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I dont understand the link. I clicked it and confusion ensued.

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Just hit the Replay button at the bottom, AFAIK.

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o hai! thx

in the first hand of the replay isn't it bad to stack off with a pair ?

not if the other guy can call you with worse than a pair, not talking specifically about that hand

i can't seem to find the hand now but i'm talking about the one where the villan wins with aces and jacks.

Something that stands out in OP's thread is that your 53.4% W$SD and have a high AF. I would guess that you are blowing people out of pots that you are ahead in and you are not controlling pot sizes well. Your obviously losing more in pots you lose and not because your not betting. Pot control and bet sizing are two things to look at, and maybe your C betting needs to be tweaked for board textures.

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Originally Posted by jyms

Something that stands out in OP's thread is that your 53.4% W$SD and have a high AF. I would guess that you are blowing people out of pots that you are ahead in and you are not controlling pot sizes well. Your obviously losing more in pots you lose and not because your not betting. Pot control and bet sizing are two things to look at, and maybe your C betting needs to be tweaked for board textures.

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Excellent. This gives me something to look at. I do feel like I blow out opponents at times, especially on boards where I feel like my hand is vulnerable, like when a flush draw flops, for example. I've been working on giving my opps incorrect odds to call, but no blowing them out. I'm still not consistent in this regard.

As far as pot control goes, I'm pretty weak here doing anything outside of block betting. And I don't really know where to go for tweaking cbets for board textures.

Where should I go from here? What do I need to read/study?

Have you watched all the cash game vids on this site? Renton's guide and Sauce's guide have a ton of things about Cbetting and ranges.

There is a ton of other stuff buried here in the BC too and in the strat forums. Just start searching. Do you have HM or PT3?

HEM

Robb also has a billion links to extremely high quality material mostly related to this subject matter I think.

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Originally Posted by kb coolman

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Originally Posted by jyms

Something that stands out in OP's thread is that your 53.4% W$SD and have a high AF. I would guess that you are blowing people out of pots that you are ahead in and you are not controlling pot sizes well. Your obviously losing more in pots you lose and not because your not betting. Pot control and bet sizing are two things to look at, and maybe your C betting needs to be tweaked for board textures.

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Excellent. This gives me something to look at. I do feel like I blow out opponents at times, especially on boards where I feel like my hand is vulnerable, like when a flush draw flops, for example. I've been working on giving my opps incorrect odds to call, but no blowing them out. I'm still not consistent in this regard.

As far as pot control goes, I'm pretty weak here doing anything outside of block betting. And I don't really know where to go for tweaking cbets for board textures.

Where should I go from here? What do I need to read/study?

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Here's an Ah Ha moment for me!

I don't think it's so much about the W$SD its more about winning big pots loosing small ones. Position is somewhat of a key here in stealing pots and such. I run like 7.6/7.6 UTG and like 19.5/12.5 on the button. Playing 14/9 is good, but its not good if you play 14/9 in ever position. Remember, big hand, big pot. Also 4k hands isn't a very big sample size. I've played 52k hands at 10nl at a pretty solid 4.8ptbb/100, but I've also had like four 5buyin+ downswings and a pretty sick 14k hand break even stretch. Just keep your head up.