How bad can I be and run this good
Back in the Good Old Days (meaning pre-Neteller shut down), I made ~4ptbb/100 at .50/1 on Full Tilt, not including bonuses and rakeback. Neteller shut down in January of 2007 and by April apparently all my donors had busted out and quit. I had a slight loss in April and by the end of the summer I myself had busted and joined the rail birds.
I continued to play a bit of live poker here and there and didn't do too well, mainly because I believe my poker face is horrible and I am extremely readable face-to-face even to a rank ameteur who is "throwing a party." I have talked to and played with a friend of mine who is a gifted people-reader and live pro at 5/10 and we agreed that my mental attitude towards bluffing and value betting has to be the same. Previously, when I would bluff, I sit there calmly figuring that since I had already technically lost the money I had just bet on the bluff, that ship had sailed and only good could come, ie, villian folds. If I use this same attitude when I value bet, any non-verbal tells I give away ought to reflect my same mindset: the chips are already in; the worst thing that can happen is he folds (or has a monster).
I never particularly liked playing online for the lack of the social aspect and actually found it quite monotonous (although perhaps this was just because I was trying to clear bonuses and qualify for the Iron Man). I did enjoy it when I was winning, however.
Shortly before Christmas, I inherited a significant amount of money. I am not a big spender and my friend the pro has always told me that he thinks I can beat the low limit NLHE games at Foxwoods. So I decided to give it a serious shot. After getting called by fourth and fifth pair several times at 1/2, and knowing that I cannot stand showdown poker (bluffing doesn't work even when you know the guy has a weak hand at best), I moved to 2/5 and did well. Not spectacular, just good; I'd consistently be up a couple hundred after a 6-8 hour session.
I have now found some underground games that are only 1/2 and thus better suited to my bankroll, as well as being nearer to home. These are against many of the same people I either lost to or witnessed me losing, so I am a bit leery of trying them again. However, I have been running insanely good. My question is simply this: is this just the good side of variance?
Over the weekend (including monday) I played 22-26 hours of these 1/2 games and made ~$1500. I estimate that I only played about 700 hands, which is nothing, but if your win rate is almost $68/hour and we conservatively (and generously) assume that 35 hands an hour are dealt that is 41.21ptbb/100. So what I'm asking boils down to this: is my ~700 hand sample so small that we cannot determine that my win rate is not positive? I mean if it were 2.5ptbb/100, that would still be more money than I was making when FT was good for me and I'd enjoy it more.
I don't want to lose grandma's money having a good time though.
