10NL AJo with two villains and J46 flop

Kenny was 82|18 and Komm was 17|3. I decided to shove. Is a shove reasonable here?

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Komm. Siggi ($3.30)
UTG+1 iestyn500 ($10.00)
MP1 Matthias1651 ($8.65)
MP2 morgjon ($15.40)
CO KennyBoy26 ($9.30)
BTN Hero ($15.50)
SB BM102 ($19.60)
BB tsbchungi ($1.85)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 8 players) Hero is BTN :ad: :js:
Komm. Siggi calls $0.10, 3 folds, KennyBoy26 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.55, 2 folds, Komm. Siggi calls $0.45, KennyBoy26 calls $0.45

Flop: :jc: :4h: :6s: ($1.80, 3 players)
Komm. Siggi bets $1.80, KennyBoy26 calls $1.80, $1.80 to Hero ($14.95)?

I remember folding AQ on a similar Q-high flop, and the other guys got it in with KQ vs QJ. Another time I got it in and they were both on sets. It's not that drawy a flop here though, only 35 or 57 are on the draw.. it's obviously ok against shorty but a bit more worrisome against the guy with 93bb who flats a PSB. Then again if he's as stationy postflop as he is preflop.. oh and just calling could have good merit too btw.

call and call the turn shove from the shorty
if the other guy reraises all in on the turn then you'll have a decision since you'll know he isn't bluffing because one person is already all in

if you shove on the flop you will be most certainly called by the shorty, but you might lose the other guy because shoving here is really strong

so you'll only get the full stack's money if you call here because he can't call a shove here with worse that often

I'm with iopq, I'm concerned about big stack. I call and re-evaluate...

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Originally Posted by Monty3038

I'm with iopq, I'm concerned about big stack. I call and re-evaluate...

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I'm not trying to single you out here Monty - I do the same thing. Just struck me as an example. Re-evaluate what exactly? If we call the pot is going to be around $7 and Kenny is going to have about $7 behind. That's one PSB away and not a situation we should enter into unless we have a commitment plan ready.

I know beginners (like me, again) like to say that we re-evaluate on the next street as an excuse for not having a plan at a time when we vaguely understand that we should have a plan.

For me - I'm committed. I have TPTK with an SPR of 2 respectively 5 against my villains. I am worried about Kenny having a good hand. For a better player the flop call would seem designed to keep me in the hand to extract more value from his two-pair or set hand - but from this guy it's just as likely imo to be a second pair or straight draw that he doesn't realize he should let go given the odds. I'd shove here because I think Kenny is bad enough to fold the OESDs in his range that he would be correct to call while more likely to call with the TT type pocket pairs that he should fold. That increases the equity of my shove. He calls and I win against any of his Jx hands anyway.

Initially I liked calling - now I don't. If we call we may fold out more hands when they don't improve and we try to get their last chips from them. If we call we may end up in a reverse implied odds situation where they improve and we end up putting in money bad.

If I thought Kenny was a good player I'd consider folding or shoving - since he's not I'll only consider shoving.

position!!!!!!!!! da da da POSITION!

for those not getting my fiddler on the roof reference: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRdfX7ut8gw

oh hell the guy is 82/18, just jiggity-jam and count the mobnies

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Erpel

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Monty3038

I'm with iopq, I'm concerned about big stack. I call and re-evaluate...

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I'm not trying to single you out here Monty - I do the same thing. Just struck me as an example. Re-evaluate what exactly? If we call the pot is going to be around $7 and Kenny is going to have about $7 behind. That's one PSB away and not a situation we should enter into unless we have a commitment plan ready.

I know beginners (like me, again) like to say that we re-evaluate on the next street as an excuse for not having a plan at a time when we vaguely understand that we should have a plan.

For me - I'm committed. I have TPTK with an SPR of 2 respectively 5 against my villains. I am worried about Kenny having a good hand. For a better player the flop call would seem designed to keep me in the hand to extract more value from his two-pair or set hand - but from this guy it's just as likely imo to be a second pair or straight draw that he doesn't realize he should let go given the odds. I'd shove here because I think Kenny is bad enough to fold the OESDs in his range that he would be correct to call while more likely to call with the TT type pocket pairs that he should fold. That increases the equity of my shove. He calls and I win against any of his Jx hands anyway.

Initially I liked calling - now I don't. If we call we may fold out more hands when they don't improve and we try to get their last chips from them. If we call we may end up in a reverse implied odds situation where they improve and we end up putting in money bad.

If I thought Kenny was a good player I'd consider folding or shoving - since he's not I'll only consider shoving.

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Ok, so we call... now there is around $7 in the pot and a crap card comes on the turn... now what? What if an A comes on the turn? What if another Jack? I'm not worried about Komm.sigi at all, he is in on the turn no matter what. Kenny though, he is 82/18 so he is a station, he's calling the shove no matter what he has at this point based on his stats, so let's re-evaluate... on the turn he is going to be facing into a 7.00 or so pot with 9.30... what is his play? If he is ahead, he shoves... behind he checks. Both lend to give you a lot of info. He's already shown he sucks, based on 82/18. If he checks, I insta shove the turn, no matter what card comes. If he shoves, I fold. He hit his set. If he bets 1/2 pot up to 3/4 pot I think I'm hoping I improved on the turn, at that point without improving, I've got 5 outs, pot would be about 10-12, with about 4 to call, thus 16 to 4, 4:1 so with 5 outs and 1 card left, I'm around 1:10 so I have to fold it... but if I improved on the turn by hitting an A or Jack I'm calling it down...

Does that explain my plan a little better? And it probably doesn't jive but that is how I thought it out quickly.

Is Komm.siggi likely to be playing 44 or 66 limping in preflop ,and then making the raise when he hit his set. I'm disounting him having JJ partly bevcause we already have one and also because he would likely have raised it preflop .Kennys range is so wide that its likely we have him beat and therefore need to get his money into the pot so that we can make a net profit on the hand even if komm.sigi beats us. If shoving here we could be driving our best chance of a profit out of the pot and could well be losing to Komm so I would err (literally ?) on the side of caution and call, expecting Komm to go all in on the turn, kenny to call /raise and then giving us the chance to get kenny's money into the middle.
Is this a high risk strategy ,potentially giving kenny a chance to get free(ish) card to maybe 2 pair or a higher pair than us.

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Originally Posted by Monty3038

Ok, so we call... now there is around $7 in the pot and a crap card comes on the turn... now what? What if an A comes on the turn? What if another Jack? I'm not worried about Komm.sigi at all, he is in on the turn no matter what. Kenny though, he is 82/18 so he is a station, he's calling the shove no matter what he has at this point based on his stats, so let's re-evaluate... on the turn he is going to be facing into a 7.00 or so pot with 9.30... what is his play? If he is ahead, he shoves... behind he checks. Both lend to give you a lot of info. He's already shown he sucks, based on 82/18. If he checks, I insta shove the turn, no matter what card comes. If he shoves, I fold. He hit his set. If he bets 1/2 pot up to 3/4 pot I think I'm hoping I improved on the turn, at that point without improving, I've got 5 outs, pot would be about 10-12, with about 4 to call, thus 16 to 4, 4:1 so with 5 outs and 1 card left, I'm around 1:10 so I have to fold it... but if I improved on the turn by hitting an A or Jack I'm calling it down...

Does that explain my plan a little better? And it probably doesn't jive but that is how I thought it out quickly.

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Good reply.

I'm seesawing a bit on what I think about the hand. I still think Kenny has a generously wide range, including a wide shove calling range - I think shoving is +EV. But it could be marginal and making the call planning to fold to bets on the turn also seems to be bad - if we flat call I don't expect to win full stacks by the river, and yet I do expect stacks to get in. If it was only Kenny I wouldn't be so concerned about stacking off, but Komm may be taking a good chunk out of the total pot so my equity needs to be solid against both players the majority of the time - so I guess there is solid merit in calling one bet only and then be ready to let it go to cut my losses.

I think my concern is if I'm faced with aggression on the turn I can't pinpoint any cards where I think I'll be ahead of the opponents ranges. Except J. It's like, if we're not strong enough to stack off unimproved there's no point us staying in the hand. I know my thinking here is really bad, but I'm trying to come up with a good answer.

None of them can really have JJ the way they played. 44 and 66 are possible for both, though Komm really doesn't have implied odds to call the preflop raise for set value. Maybe Komm is more likely to be on a Jx hand like AJ, KJ, QJ, JTs (all possible in a 17% range, less 3% for 99+, AKs). Most 18% PFR ranges include both 66 and 44, so I guess we can discount them for Kenny - he'd mostly have raised them and has stack size to do it for implied odds. Against me - but not against the only person already in the hand - he may have called a low pocket pair to have correct implied odds against Komm. Seems out of character for a poor player with 18% PFR. 75 and 64 are not in the range for Komm. 75 and 64 may or may not be in the range for Kenny, depending on which limps he'll also call. I'd tend to think stationish people are impressed more with high card value than suitedness and connectedness so maybe he's more likely to have ace-rag or JT than 75, 64.

Komm's flop bet is most consistent with any Jx and Kenny's call is most consistent with any paired hand - A4, A6, QJ, JT, J9, J8 maybe foremost among them. He would call any 44, 66, 64, 75 hand, but he's just not as likely to have gotten through preflop with any of those.

Ok, I seem to have convinced myself that the opponents both have utter shit, leaving the question if we extract more value by shoving or by calling and letting them catch up to what is hopefully a second best hand.

If an A falls I now don't feel so bad about it - I often have simply a better two-pair hand. Cards around 9, T, Q I'd worry about as they are most likely to have made someone else a two-pair hand. 8 is a scare card for the straight, which is honestly a pretty unlikely holding. I think my range has more 75 in it than anyone else and I might pot control an 8 simply because I'd fold out worse and not get any extra value.

So I guess my plan if calling is to
Shove (or call shove): A, K, J, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 (31 cards)
Pot control (check or call small): 8 (4 cards)
Release (check or fold): Q, T, 9 (12 cards)

I still don't pretend to have this hand sorted out. I feel like I can't put my finger on what is more important in this hand. I can analyse bits and pieces of it but can't pick a direction because I can't say for certain what factor should weigh most heavily.

Ok, so I'm not so worried about sets because:
Surely Kenny would raise any pocket pair when his PFR is 18%. That's a lot of hands - surely all pocket pairs are in there.
Komm would have been making a mistake if he called my PFR with 44 or 66 for implied odds. I guess he could have called PF for simple showdown value which with his stack size is maybe not a mistake at all. But his flop bet size when he donks doesn't suggest a set to me.