10NL FR with AQs and lots O pre-flop action

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Replay http://weaktight.com/r590752

Nice&lucky is a 22|10 and ShAd09 is a 32|5. Shad had been stealing a lot of flops when no one led out. I felt Nice was on a blind steal. If Shad had raised $3.60 or $4.00 or stacked off, I would of folded but instead he raised a smaller amount so I thought I would call the 80 cents and see the flop since I was getting a great price and didn't fully believe Shad.

Would you call his all-in?

Stacks:
UTG ShAd09 ($15.45)
UTG+1 thing93001 ($9.90)
MP1 inac13 ($10.15)
MP2 pitbullchile ($2.20)
CO nice&lucky ($7.05)
BTN tilllateRM ($1.85)
SB Hero ($19.85)
BB PowderDeamus ($9.70)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 8 players) Hero is SB :ad: :qd:
ShAd09 calls $0.10 ($15.35), 3 folds, nice&lucky raises to $0.40 ($6.65), 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.20 ($18.60), 1 fold, ShAd09 raises to $2 ($13.35), nice&lucky calls $1.60 ($5.05), Hero calls $0.80 ($17.85)

Flop: :jd: :5c: :3d: ($6.10, 3 players)
Hero checks ($17.85), ShAd09 goes all-in $13.45 ($0), nice&lucky folds ($5.05), ShAd09 says "fold", $13.45 to Hero ($17.85)?

i'd fold here. 32/5 are standard donk stats, and most donks don't 4bet without QQ+

not to mention, he says "fold" in chat, and in all honesty i think if he really wanted you to fold then he would just keep his mouth shut and hope his bet would do the trick

If his range is QQ+ folding is a pretty bad mistake.

Board: Jd 5c 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.078% 43.96% 00.11% 5223 13.50 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 55.922% 55.81% 00.11% 6630 13.50 { QQ+ }


We're getting 19.55:13.35 which is 2.45:1, so we need to have 40.76% equity to call. If we add AKs,AKo into his range folding becomes even worse. If we include JJ in the range but not AKs,AKo, calling is a very minor mistake. If there's anything else in his range, it's a clear call.

EDIT: I meant 1.45:1, so we need 1/2.45, which is .408 or 40.8%

Parasumara, 19.55:13.35 is not 2.45:1....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Parasumara, 19.55:13.35 is not 2.45:1....

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Fixed. Math is correct though.

Since you have the luxury of having two options where neither is really superior, the real question here is: do you like variance? :)

a passive donk limp/4 bet preflop and told u to fold in chat.


FOOOOOLLLLDDD and we dont gotta worry about thin maths and variance or other such nastiness

Step 1: Pot odds
Step 2: Figure chance of winning

Quote:

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Originally Posted by speedcake

FOOOOOLLLLDDD and we dont gotta worry about thin maths and variance or other such nastiness

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If you know for a fact he only has AA or KK here, you still have odds to call.

When he tells you to fold all that means is that he thinks he has the best hand. While that may be true, you have good equity against his range here. To say that math and variance is irrelevant here is to misunderstand poker. In fact, when your opponent pushes all-in with a predictable range heads up they are the only relevant factors. As spoonitnow said, you have to calculate the pot odds and then calculate your odds of winning. Variance should only be considered if you're playing above your bankroll imo.

I ended up calling and river was 7d. Villain had AsAh.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FriskyPirate

I ended up calling and river was 7d. Villain had AsAh.

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Lol, thats funny.. :D

I dont think i would be that brave to do that call. :)

ya I forgot his 4bet was so tiny. so unfortunately I guess call PF.

what do we want to do on this flop though? Villain has a monster and we flop good but not outstanding.