Making sure I'm on the right track.
Hi all,
About 3 months ago I decided to devote myself to really trying to improve my game (I knew the rules and the most common odds before that, but that was it).
I decided to focus on MTTs (less risk for more hands played etc.), read some of your excellent posts on the subject (thanks Soupie et al.), bought Harrington's book on NL MTTs and have been entering the PokerStars $2.75 ($5000 Guarantee) on a daily basis, to try and build up some experience before I commit any real money.
I'm hoping some of the more experienced posters can help me guage my progress from how my stats look. Over the past month (roughly 20 tournaments entered) I'm cashing in about 1/3 of the tournees I enter. I've just found out how to calculate my ROI (thanks again), and its 11.1%. From what I understand, that's not great, buts it not absolutely awful either.
Can any of the old hands tell me how these stats look? Do I need alot of improvement at this level before I think about upping the stakes? Is there an estimated ROI that you'd recommend me to shoot for before I move on?
I have a couple of specific questions too: I currently get the feeling that, at the stakes I play, I'm never going to be able to achieve great position (last 2 tables) with any consistency: with 5000+ entrants, a last table finish would seem to require both great play AND great luck. Should I be expecting to simply cash most of the time, and then getting the majority of my winnings from rare big cashes, or at this level should I really be in the hunt for a last table finish in almost any tournee I enter (excepting the usual unlucky busts etc.).
Related to this is a second question: I have yet to make that elusive final table cash, even when I'm getting lucky/getting good cards. I find that, somewhere during the last 1000 or so people, I always run into someone that I have beat and bet against to eliminate drawing odds, but they relentlessly call me down, and then hit their gutshot on the river. For every 4 that you beat, you only need to lose to one in a big pot.
I'm certainly not saying that I'm at all unlucky, just that in order to win you would seem to have to wade through hundreds of this type of player and that, sooner or later in a tournament of this size, one of them will bust you. In 4 of the last 5 tournaments I have been busted or crippled by someone who I had beat on the flop, bet strongly enough against to eliminate drawing odds (got called), value bet against on the turn (got called) and then been sucked out on by on the river.
Here's the actual question ( :) ) - Is this a fact of tornament life? Should I expect to bust out to one of these players most of the time, then be pleased when I finally don't, and get myself a good finish. Or is there something I could be doing to avoid them (they're very hard to spot ahead of time when you get moved around so much).
Or is it that there are simply alot of these players around at microstakes, and when I eventually improve enough to move up, there will be less players willing to take these risks.
I honestly feel that my play is now reasonably solid (although doubtless in a couple of months time I'll look back on that statement and laugh), but that my play alone is not currently enough to enable me to get high in these tournaments.
Any advice (even of the "you, sir, are a giant turbot" variety - at least I'll know) will be gratefully received, and apologies in advance for the gargantuan post and if I asked anything which has been answered ad nauseum before, but missed on the search).
Rich
