When is it profitable to call here?

Ok so a friend of mine and I were talking situational poker on AIM this morning and we came up with following scenario. We both of course knew right away that this a fold most of the time, but I am curious to see how often I could call and it WOULD be profitable. Anyways here goes:

Villain is in MP with 100bb stack. His stats over a large sample size are 20/15 with a 60% c-bet.

We are on the button with 200bb stack. Our image is clean and tight, nitty actually. We're running at a 13/11.

Scenario:

UTG folds.
Villain raises to 4xbb.
CO folds.
Hero calls 4xbb with JJ.
SB folds.
BB folds.

Flop: Kxx Rainbow. (x's are not connecting undercards to our J's)
Villain bets 2/3 pot or 6xbb.
We minraise to 12xbb.
Villain calls 6xbb.

Turn: Kxx X (again unconnected under card)
Villain shoves all in.
Hero ?

Ok so this is where we started talking about how often we could call to make it a profitable play. We want to do this strictly by mathematics. I figured it out that it will cost us 84bb to call his shove. There would be 116 in the pot after his shove. So we're only getting 1.38 to 1 for pot odds. Obviously a bad call all day. But here is where we both get confused. How do you figure out how often you can call to make it profitable? I want to learn how to do this just for the simple fact that it will come in handy when I'm reviewing my HH's. Thanks for any and all answers!

why would you minraise his cbet?
thats what i want to know.

Im not sure that there is anyway you can call this and it ever be profitable. there is so many hands that beats yours you would also have to figure out if it is possible that he hit a set with any of his xx I have been looking at my hands on pt3 and found that I am putting way to much money on that hand. JJ I would play this hand alittle different. I would have called his 4xbb bet than i would have c raised to 3x his bet if he called i would have prob. used any reads to figure out if i would go anyfurther on the turn if he bets on the turn i fold if he checks i would contination bet. Fold any shoves. I think that might be the best way but like I said i am a still learning.
Thanks
Don

you pokerstove JJ vrs his range until you find out how wide he has to be shoving here for a call to be profitable.

^^ What he said. Altho the example Dranger used is a little silly, i think everyone should muck about with stove in this manner. It's particularly helpful for dealing with shortstack shoves (providing you give them accurate ranges obv) and it will help enormously in getting a feel for how much equity you have in a lot of fairly common situations.

I think the question being asked is either more basic or much more complex than people think.

If you win 86 / (86+116) = 42.57% of the time - calling is breakeven. If you win less often, calling is unprofitable. If you win more often calling is profitable.

You can win in two ways:
1) If you are already ahead and your opponent does not improve to beat you.
2) If you are behind and you improve to beat your opponent.

The real question here is what your chance to win is. If that can be accurately assessed then you can conclude that it is always correct to call or always correct to fold.

It is a really special situation where you end up concluding that you must call some percentage of the time and fold the rest - and I think a lot of basics need to be better understood before that type of analysis is relevant for you (or me for that matter). But if you want to think along those lines you need to read Theory of Poker about Game Theory optimal play.

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So we're only getting 1.38 to 1 for pot odds. Obviously a bad call all day

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This observation sticks out like a sore thumb to me. I'd love to have odds of 1.38 to 1 on any hand I'm a favourite to win. Odds alone does not make a situation bad.

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but I am curious to see how often I could call and it WOULD be profitable.

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how often we could call to make it a profitable play

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How do you figure out how often you can call to make it profitable?

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I think you are looking at it the wrong way and asking the wrong kinds of questions.

The simple fact is this:
If you stand to win 42.57% or more of the time - you MUST call 100% of the time.
If you stand to win less than 42.57% of the time - you MUST call 0% of the time.

That's how often you must call.

I realize this question is dumb lol. It wasn't a real situation I or my friend was in. It was just something that was giving me trouble. My question was really if there is an equation out there on how to often you can call in a marginal spot and make it the wrong one. And kettleofish is right, my friend and I are going to do a bunch of these hands a week from now on. We're going to dig through our HH's and find marginal spots and try to figure things like this out. We want to do this because both of us have read that the big pots obviously play themselves, but its making the right decision in the small-medium sized pots that make you a winning player. But thanks for all the responses. I appreciate the answers.


O and erpel, so if you are saying that if I run my opponents range through pokerstove and it comes up that I have 43%+ equity I should ALWAYS call, but if I have 42% or lower I fold? Is there right?

O and the minraise is just something my friend came up with. The stats used in the scenario are actually my stats (villain) and my friend's stats (hero). We had been discussing bet sizing and c-betting.

I asked him what he would do if I c-bet this flop with JJ. He said he would either float me to see if I double barreled, or he would minraise. He said he would minraise to try and get the bluffing part of my c-bet out of the way. I said well if it were me and I had a hand like say AQo and i WERE bluffing, I could float there now. Obviously not a play I'm going to make very often against a nit, but against a looser player I dont think its too bad of a move to peel a turn. If we hit air or another big card peels off we can double barrel. If a card that doesn't help our situation or make the board any scarier then we can give up and c/f i think.

But anyways thats how the conversation got started. Please give me anymore insight, if any.

In the situation you described above, ya u should always call with 43% equity versus his range. That is the equation if you like, is your equity vs his range greater than the odds you are getting. Again tho, be verrry careful that the range you assign somebody is accurate, it's really easy to justify a call/fold if you assign a range that is ATC/just the nuts.

Oh and tell your friend that minraising with underpairs to fold out bluffs is not a good way to play poker :wink: In the situation u described he's better off just calling, as he's unlikely to get double-barelled by worse if he's got a nitty image.

Thanks for clarifying kettleofish. And yea I told him last night that minraising probly wasnt the best way to go about that hand. I like a 3x raise to make the villain TELL you if he has the K or not. Ah well, he's a winning player over a very good size sample size, so he must be doing something right :P.