2/4 - ATo - thin value on scary board?

Villain is 25/19/3.1 over 1.7k hands, 3bets 11.5%. Turn check standard? Any river value here?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($400)
Button ($800.50)
SB ($410)
BB ($415.60)
UTG ($447.60)
Hero (MP) ($424)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif
1 fold, Hero raises to $14, 3 folds, BB calls $10

Flop: ($30) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $24, BB calls $24

Turn: ($78) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($78) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...

How well does he play? How often would he c/r bluff? I generally go for a small value bet here and play my read if raised.

bleh, seems like your ahead too often to not bet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

How well does he play? How often would he c/r bluff?

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My notes are all pre-flop, but he is Russian :) River c/r is 27% which is really high, but even this many hands is a small sample for something like that.

Bet/Snap if he can beat Top Pair Up good for him.

bet is fine

If we are villain here how often should we be c/r bluffing the turn, assuming you had bet, or the river, assuming you checked the turn and then bet the river?

btw I usually bet the river and close my eyes.

EZ bet but i would go very small.

ok...

River: ($78) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $50, BB raises to $377.60 (All-In), Hero...

Probably snap it.

Easy value bet.

50 is not a good river bet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Probably snap it.

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umm.. this is a pretty easy fold I feel like.

ANYTHING he called with on this board, for the most part, has SD value and likely also two pair now.

I can't see many hands here that would legitimately need to turn itself into a bluff, so this is Qx a ton I think. AJ,KJ,KT,JT will all either c/f or c/c if they think you are bluffing. Qx will check bomb obviously, so we have to really be praying for a rag Ax or Kx turning itself into a bluff to call here.

I'm extremely confused by river raise size but fold, and agree with nutsinho bet less one river

I'm also confused and I don't think calling is hopeless but I'd still fold. Maybe I am a big pussy

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

I'm also confused and I don't think calling is hopeless but I'd still fold. Maybe I am a big pussy

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mid stakes donk obv.

It doesn't make sense for Hero to check a Q behind on that turn and vrs a guy who has an affinity for being russian and check/raising rivers, I'd gobble this bet up!