Big Pot 20NL

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11-03-2008, 10:07 AM
OhBollocks

Big Pot 20NL

Villain is 30/16/114(hands)

Microgaming, $0.10/0.20 Hold'em Cash Games, 9 Players
Hand Converter by Pokerhand.org

Board:
D1reStra1ghts (UTG): $18.15
HERO (UTG+1): $31.67
padico (MP1): $7.60
jifeng2008 (MP2): $3.80
Dying123 (MP3): $5.28
ConQU (CO): $36.45
chikurinka (Button): $2.50
Altistblin (SB): $8.28
JMGutiH (BB): $21.19

Dealt to HERO Q:club: Q:diamond:

Pre-flop:
(1 folds), HERO raises to $.80, (1 folds), jifeng2008 calls $.80, (1 folds), ConQU calls $.80, (3 folds)

Flop: ($2.70) 5:heart: J:heart: T:spade: (3 Players)
HERO bets $2.20, jifeng2008 raises to $3, ConQU calls $3, HERO calls $.80

Turn: ($8.70) 5:diamond: (3 Players)
HERO bets $7, ConQU calls $7

River: ($22.70) 9:heart: (3 Players)
HERO checks, ConQU bets $12.85, HERO ?

Comments?
11-03-2008, 11:30 AM
kb coolman

I'm laying this down. I try not to go all in with top/over pair, especially when that river would complete the flush and straight draws. Given your opponent's stats, this board will fit his hand range perfectly. Plus, you're still in a three way pot. You're QQ is no good here.
11-03-2008, 11:33 AM
oskar

reads? ranges? Why do you bet the turn?
11-03-2008, 12:09 PM
al yell

i call this all day. You're a 60% favorite over the following range: TT,KQs,J9s+,KQo,J9o+
11-03-2008, 12:27 PM
kb coolman

Quote:

Originally Posted by al yell

i call this all day. You're a 60% favorite over the following range: TT,KQs,J9s+,KQo,J9o+

IMHO, 60% is too marginal to stack off, and I think you're way too limited in the ranges this op is likely to play. If he's showing too much aggression, there will be a better opportunity to take his stack.
11-03-2008, 12:49 PM
al yell

Quote:

Originally Posted by kb coolman

Quote:

Originally Posted by al yell

i call this all day. You're a 60% favorite over the following range: TT,KQs,J9s+,KQo,J9o+

IMHO, 60% is too marginal to stack off, and I think you're way too limited in the ranges this op is likely to play. If he's showing too much aggression, there will be a better opportunity to take his stack.

first off, you're not 'stacking off. It's only 2/3 of your stack. Also consider your odds; you're calling $12 to win $30 (3:1). His aggression is another incentive to call, whereas if he was passive (i.e. only betting the nuts) I may be more reluctant to, but would still call.

btw, what range do you put him on?
11-03-2008, 01:14 PM
kmind

you forgot them hearts in your range
11-03-2008, 01:20 PM
al yell

Quote:

Originally Posted by kmind

you forgot them hearts in your range

right! except i'm at a bit of a loss as to how to work them in (to pokerstove for instance)
11-03-2008, 01:30 PM
kb coolman

Quote:

Originally Posted by al yell

btw, what range do you put him on?

I easily put this guy on ALL broadways, SCs, and connected Jacks or better. Like I said...not a good board against this guy with QQ.
11-03-2008, 01:37 PM
spoonitnow

KQ and heart draws both got there. I don't see him betting anything that you beat here.
11-03-2008, 02:32 PM
al yell

Quote:

Originally Posted by al yell

i call this all day.

obv a spew monkey
11-03-2008, 02:48 PM
d0zer

Quote:

Originally Posted by kb coolman

IMHO, 60% is too marginal to stack off

wat? WAT?

so if someone said a coin landed heads 60% of the time...and they offered you even monies....

...

...

.

...

WAT?
11-03-2008, 03:35 PM
kb coolman

Quote:

Originally Posted by d0zer

Quote:

Originally Posted by kb coolman

IMHO, 60% is too marginal to stack off

wat? WAT?

so if someone said a coin landed heads 60% of the time...and they offered you even monies....

Pre-flop, of course I call it against this guy. Against a 12/7? No.

There is information presented to you during the course of a poker hand that is not available in a coin flip. Board texture, opponent ranges, betting patterns, etc.

Playing hand percentages with no regard to opponent ranges will not win you any money. Against a decent player, you will get stacked time and time again, especially with the % is marginal. Trust me, I know from experience.

If you were AI with QQ against a random opponent pre-flop against this board, then yes, you will win 60% of the time. That does not take into consideration information given during the course of the hand.

Let's look at it another way. You have AcAh pre-flop, the board presents 4 spades and you're faced with an AI call decision on the river. Technically, you would win this hand 55% of the time. That's better than 50/50, so it's a long term +EV play, right? But it makes a big difference if you're checking the river as opposed to calling the AI bet. Calling when you know you're beat is -EV, I don't care what the odds are.