Bad beat or Bad play??

SB has been playing tag. Put him on a decent big pair 1010+. May have gambled with flop call but was free rolling with profit and figured I'd bust him if I hit.

Hero (MP2) ($11.85)
CO ($10)
Button ($10.20)
SB ($10)
BB ($2.10)
UTG ($10.15)
UTG+1 ($10.50)
MP1 ($2.55)

Dealt to Hero [As Ks]

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with ,
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold

Flop: *** FLOP *** [Qd 7s 9s]
($0.90) , , (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.70, SB raises to $3.50, Hero calls $2.80

Turn:*** TURN *** [Qd 7s 9s] [5s]
($7.90) (2 players)
SB bets $6.10 (All-In), Hero calls $6.10

River: *** RIVER *** [Qd 7s 9s 5s] [Qs]
($20.10) (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $20.10 | Rake: $0.95

SB turns over QQ for quads. Ouch!

You're never freerolling with profit. Once you earn the money it's yours. You could have cashed that money out instead of calling the flop.

Terrible play, you deserved to lose. How is it a bad beat when you had no chance to win on the turn?

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Originally Posted by iopq

Terrible play, you deserved to lose. How is it a bad beat when you had no chance to win on the turn?

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Yea its kinda hard to win when Hero turned the nuts, amirite?

SB shoves turn like 99.3% of the time here and its harder to call a bricked 4th street with a frush draw cause its obvious as shit our 2 overs are no good, 3bet ship it on the flop while youre draw has the most equity if you want to continue

Don't post results.
You can never put a villain on just ONE hand - you do not have psychic abilities.
There is no such thing as "freerolling with profits". - well there actually is, but it does not apply here, and it should not be part of your game.

A couple of things you better figure out yourself:
Do you get the pot odds to call against AQ, a set, an overpair?
What are your implied odds?

I didn't see the suits

use this converter:
http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

Getting stacked after hitting the nut flush on the turn is ALWAYS a bad beat. When the board has not already paired, someone sitting on a set only has 10 outs to beat you.

This could not have been played any better. Major suckout...

Flop: *** FLOP *** [Qd 7s 9s]
($0.90) , , (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.70, SB raises to $3.50, Hero?

The flop is the important part, we need to consider pot odds, implied odds and reverse implied odds. Without doing the math here, I'm pretty sure flop is a fold.

Please use a hand converter also, thanks

Thanks for the feedback. Being a beginner I know I have a long way to go.

Given his tag style I have observed already, I put him on 10 10 or greater (+) - range not ONE hand. On the flop I had the nut flush draw giving me about 35% to hit. The pot odds were 35.44% ($2.80 to win $7.90). The pot odds were close here for me to call. The implied odds if I hit on the turn are about 44% ($8.90 to win $20.10) - I shove with nuts or he pushes. This is where it is tough. The odds don't justify the call but I'm holding the nuts.

So on the turn I have the nut flush. He could have a set, straight draw or two pair. All of which I beat. Are you folding on the turn? or letting it go on the flop? or calling?

I'm wrong

Thanks for the analysis lolpwnt. Very much appreciated.

You are calculating the equity for a shove and then you call.
If you want to justify a call, you have to calculate the equity for a call. Makes sense?

Pot odd wise the call is nowhere to being close. Implied odds wise you can make an argument for a call, but I'd like to see you make it, not somebody else.

Try to figure out which one is better on the flop and why:

fold: ?
call: ?
shove: ?

for a call A and K are reverse implied a good percentage of times imo. Discuss.

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Originally Posted by Tazzmn911

On the flop I had the nut flush draw giving me about 35% to hit. The pot odds were 35.44% ($2.80 to win $7.90).

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the 35% is the chance to make your flush if you see both the turn and the river. unless you are calling all-in you aren't guaranteed to see the turn and the river for that price.

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Originally Posted by oskar

You are calculating the equity for a shove and then you call.
If you want to justify a call, you have to calculate the equity for a call. Makes sense?

Pot odd wise the call is nowhere to being close. Implied odds wise you can make an argument for a call, but I'd like to see you make it, not somebody else.

Try to figure out which one is better on the flop and why:

fold: ?
call: ?
shove: ?

for a call A and K are reverse implied a good percentage of times imo. Discuss.

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If ur talking to me, which i'm not sure...I but both in.

EDIT: I removed my EV calculation as i realised it was wrong.

he's not talking to you

right.

I would like the OP to analyse the hand himself. I'm happy to give my opinion afterwards, but I don't think it does a lot for the learning process if I just say what I think is best and why.

Ok.....here is my thinking (probably flawed but thats why I'm here).

On the flop, I have 9 outs for the nut flush. At this point I have a 35% chance of hitting on either the Turn or River. The pot odds for me to call his bet on the flop is 35.44%.

Best case scenerio for Villian is he hit set, has top pair or is on straight draw. His big bet tells me he has the best hand and is making me pay for the draw. I base this on the tag style he has played so far. But I ask myself what does he think I have? I raised preflop and haven't been too loose in this session and most showdowns were the nuts. What are the chances I led out with the Axs. So I am pretty sure he think set is best against my possible AA, KK, AK.

Flop options:

Fold: I don't consider this option on the flop given the odds I have for the nuts (or at least what I feel is the nuts). If I miss on the turn it gets more difficult for me to continue and will fold to turn bet.

Call: at this point I feel a call is justified given the pot odds (assuming I go to the river). On the turn I will have position and can evaluate whether to continue.

Shove: Given his big bet, I think he is calling with the best hand. Since I haven't made my hand yet, I think the shove is much more riskier. Once I shove my decisions are over and all I can do is cross my fingers.

Implied odds at this point: To be honest, the gut feeling of him going all in on turn was there. Again, based on his style so far and flop bet. With position and being pretty sure he will push, hitting the turn I felt confident I was stacking him.

There is more I should consider - please comment on what that may be.

Bad or good, I appreciate you guys making me work this through.

you are never seeing a free river in this spot. ever. villain just check raised 1/3 of his stack on the flop and hes tagg.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Tazzmn911

If I miss on the turn it gets more difficult for me to continue and will fold to turn bet.
To be honest, the gut feeling of him going all in on turn was there.

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see :wink:

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Originally Posted by Tazzmn911

On the flop, I have 9 outs for the nut flush. At this point I have a 35% chance of hitting on either the Turn or River. The pot odds for me to call his bet on the flop is 35.44%.

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stop thinking like this. like i said, only use that 35% number if you are calling an all-in because that number is for the turn and the river. you are never guaranteed to see the river for that price if you aren't all-in. you need to use the % to hit with 1 card to come which is about 20%. here's a chart to help you.

http://media.cardplayer.com/image/1/1707kreiger.jpg

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Originally Posted by Tazzmn911

On the flop, I have 9 outs for the nut flush. At this point I have a 35% chance of hitting on either the Turn or River. The pot odds for me to call his bet on the flop is 35.44%.

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Your odds of hitting it on the turn OR river are irrellevant. You're calling to see the turn, not the turn and the river.
So I think you're about about 17% to hit it on the turn. You don't need any math to immediately see that this can't possibly be +EV pot odd wise. But you can expect him to shove almost any turn, or call a shove on any turn, so you have very good implied odds.

Problems with implied odds:
His line means 2pair+ A LOT in these situations. which means he has 4-10 out redraw to fill up even if you hit it.
Secondly you are going broke if an A or K hits. But a good portion of the time they are not going to be good, and you are again drawing for 9 outs to the river
So you have 6 out draw to getting it in on the turn as a 3:2 underdog.

l believe a call MIGHT be slightly +EV, but it's likely not the best option.

If I get REALLY bored tonight, I can do the math. Unlikely though. :)

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Once I shove my decisions are over...

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That's kind of the idea, actually.

Big flaw on my pot odds analysis. Now I got it (I think). Unless I'm shoving here I calculate 1 card to come. Which makes my call not so good - based on pot odds.

Given the range I put him on and his flop bet, I put him on 2pair + which gives him 11 outs to better my 9 out flush draw. Think thats right.

Unless I'm just gambling, I believe now the correct play was to fold to his flop bet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Tazzmn911

Big flaw on my pot odds analysis. Now I got it (I think). Unless I'm shoving here I calculate 1 card to come. Which makes my call not so good - based on pot odds.

Given the range I put him on and his flop bet, I put him on 2pair + which gives him 11 outs to better my 9 out flush draw. Think thats right.

Unless I'm just gambling, I believe now the correct play was to fold to his flop bet.

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NO the correct thing to do is shove

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Originally Posted by lolpwnt

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Tazzmn911

Big flaw on my pot odds analysis. Now I got it (I think). Unless I'm shoving here I calculate 1 card to come. Which makes my call not so good - based on pot odds.

Given the range I put him on and his flop bet, I put him on 2pair + which gives him 11 outs to better my 9 out flush draw. Think thats right.

Unless I'm just gambling, I believe now the correct play was to fold to his flop bet.

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NO the correct thing to do is shove

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i disagree. we have 0% fold equity so we would be shoving with only 35% to win. I say this just based on him being tag and the check raise indicating lots of strength without reads to indicate otherwise. An A or K likely doesnt help so we are only doing this with the flush. Now if opponent was LAGG on the otherhand, our fold equity increased a bunch and the A,K become possible outs and i would agree.

Different scenario:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Tazzmn911

Hero (MP2) ($11.85)
CO ($10)
Button ($10.20)
SB ($10)
BB ($2.10)
UTG ($10.15)
UTG+1 ($10.50)
MP1 ($2.55)

Dealt to Hero [ :as: :ks: ]

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with ,
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold

Flop: *** FLOP *** [ :qd: :7s: :9s: ]
($0.90) , , (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.70, SB raises to $3.50, Hero calls $2.80

Turn:*** TURN *** [ :qd: :7s: :9s: ] [ :4c: ]
($7.90) (2 players)
SB bets $6.10 (All-In)

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Our equity has just been castrated and now we face a decision getting >2:1 with almost half our stack in the pot against a very tight range. Do we snap it off or chuck it?

I'll take a stab....

Wer'e not getting the right odds to call here. Pot odds are about 30% with use having less than 20% in completing nut flush. Here I fold.

Not smart enough yet to determine if we are pot committed. Are we?? Even with the odds against us?

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Originally Posted by JKDS

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Originally Posted by lolpwnt

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Originally Posted by Tazzmn911

Big flaw on my pot odds analysis. Now I got it (I think). Unless I'm shoving here I calculate 1 card to come. Which makes my call not so good - based on pot odds.

Given the range I put him on and his flop bet, I put him on 2pair + which gives him 11 outs to better my 9 out flush draw. Think thats right.

Unless I'm just gambling, I believe now the correct play was to fold to his flop bet.

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NO the correct thing to do is shove

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i disagree. we have 0% fold equity so we would be shoving with only 35% to win. I say this just based on him being tag and the check raise indicating lots of strength without reads to indicate otherwise. An A or K likely doesnt help so we are only doing this with the flush. Now if opponent was LAGG on the otherhand, our fold equity increased a bunch and the A,K become possible outs and i would agree.

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I'm wrong!

Lolpwnt - I value all the work you have already put into these forums. So first of keep it up. Second, I have just begun doing more and more ev calculations, and decided to give a go at this hand on whether a shove on the flop is +ev. Only reason I'm posting is because according to my math (which is very likely to be wrong), I believe we need around 22% fold equity to have a BE shove. So here's the math.

Figuring the villain is tight, I'm using the same range you used to determine our equity when called (QQ+, 99, 77, AQo, AQs). Given our hand if we shove and are called we have ~37% equity against villains range. So using this formula:

EV = [Ev(fold)] * x + [Ev(call)] * (1 - x), with x = % villain folds.

We first find the EV of us shoving and villain folding. This is rather easy because we just need to add up the pot, as that is how much we will win. In this case that is $5.10 (.90 + .70 + 3.50).

Next we need to find the Ev for when we shove and villain calls. We have already determined we will have 37% equity. So:

Ev (call) = (our equity)(total pot) - our bet
=(.37)(20.1) - 8.9
= -$1.46

So now we have the Ev(fold) and the Ev(call) so we can plug this into the first formula and find how often villain needs to fold for this to be a BE shove.
Ev (fold) = 5.10
Ev (call) = -1.46

Ev (shove) = [Ev(fold)] * x + [Ev(call)] * (1 - x), with x = % villain folds.
= [5.10]*x + [-1.46]*(1-x)
= 5.10x - 1.46 + 1.46x
1.46 = 6.56x
x = .222 or 22.2%

This means, according to my math, we need villain to be folding 22% of the time to be breakeven on our shove. If he folds more often we are +ev, and if he folds less often we are -ev.

I have yet to do a range assessment on this hand to determine just how often villain is folding (and am in a hurry to go right now), so someone else can do that.

*I hope I didn't fuck up the math too much. Keep in mind I'm relatively new to incorporating this much math into my game and this is one of the few ev calcs I have done in a while.

stacks that looks right if you didn't mess up the pot amounts which I didn't check

stacks is 100% right. lolpwnt is 100% wrong, regardless of who wrote the program used. Saying that shoving is EV even when called by better hands is equivalent to saying that you would have odds to call if villain has pushed first, which is clearly not the case here. Actually, the fact that the "EV when called" box says $7.01, which is less than the hero's shove, is a pretty good clue that something is wrong in the conclusions.

ur right, O put the wrong number in hero bet/raise box. You need 22% fe for this to be 0EV

I just decided to download "The Dude" also, because that is pretty badass. The earlier post was just concerning the math if his calling range was as tight as it was. I would just like to say that this is probably a +ev shove in this case. If we make his calling range as tight as we did (QQ+, 77, 99, AQ) then that is 33 combos in his calling range. In order to achieve the 22% fold equity needed, he needs to have 42 combos in his c/ring range, meaning he only needs to fold 9 combos. Which this is easily achievable if he ever c/r bluffs here, or c/rs and then folds (KQ?). Also his calling range probably isn't that tight meaning we will probably have more pot equity. As he will be getting something like 2.2:1 pot odds, if he has a draw (which is weaker than ours), then he is likely to call.