10NL: TPTK facing aggression on turn...

No reads on villain unfortunately, he sat down couple of orbits ago, seemed agressive...
Pot odds make a call right? or nowhere near? I think it is the latter, but im interested in opinions...thanks

Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (10 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

MP3 ($17.89)
CO ($9.43)
Button ($6.15)
Hero (SB) ($14.08)
BB ($3.92)
UTG ($7.75)
UTG+1 ($7.05)
UTG+2 ($19.05)
MP1 ($8.65)
MP2 ($6)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif
UTG calls $0.10, 2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, MP2 (poster) checks, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.70, 2 folds, MP1 calls $0.60, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.70) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, MP1 calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.10) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $2.10, MP1 raises to $6.75 (All-In), Hero ???

pot odds only matter if you think you aren't drawing dead, and that may very well be the case here. You can still get away from this hand, the question is: do you?

Unless I know Villain is pretty crazy I think I fold.

JT is a great PF cold-calling hand 'cause of situations like this...

You're basically yelling at this guy "I have Kings or better...", and he doesn't really seem to care. I think at best your splitting the pot... more likely you're losing to better than a pair. Or you're playing a f-ckmonkey who's doing ths with JJ.

On the other hand, at 4.65 to go for what, 2.5:1 on the money, and your turn bet puts you past the commitment threshold based on his stack, so I think you have to grit your teeth and call. Deeper I'd prolly fold, but you see some goofy sh!t at these levels... (maybe homestump just had to pee....? :shock:)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by al yell

pot odds only matter if you think you aren't drawing dead, and that may very well be the case here. You can still get away from this hand, the question is: do you?

Unless I know Villain is pretty crazy I think I fold.

---

that's a retarded way to think because you're not drawing dead against his whole range

that came out wrong. you're right. I left some inner dialog out of my response. sry. what I was trying to say is I think we're beat. Simple as that.

iopq, do you then also agree that a call is a viable line, irrespective of odds? It just looks like we're way behind so often here no?

No, I didn't say anything about this hand in particular.

Here's how you approach the hand: assign a range to the villain, pokerstove it
then see what part of the final pot we win
if that's greater than the price we pay to win, we should call

thx for the clarification. much appreciated.

Call. Typical villain's range at 10nl is behind TPTK in general on this board. If I had any reads that suggested villain was hinting toward "good" I'd fold.

Lets do the math, but first, i need a range for villain. I need help with this, so i will say right now what range i would put villain on, and then you can add/remove all you like until we have a definitive range. Then i will be able to see if the call is +ev or not.
It is the range asigning part the one i have trouble with, not the ev calculations, so thats why i ask for help with this. If you dont want to do it or you just feel like saying "figure it out yourself", i will understand. But if anyone is willing to post their thoughts on this, i am thankful.
Ok...enough...here is my range:

AK ; KK+ ; 88 ; 99 ; K9s(only one combination) ; 89s ; 78s ; 79s ; JT ; KJ+

I include premiums even though he didnt raise pre, because i have no idea how he plays.
Feel free to butcher my range, actually, please do...

thanks

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by settecba

here is my range:

AK ; KK+ ; 88 ; 99 ; K9s(only one combination) ; 89s ; 78s ; 79s ; JT ; KJ+

I include premiums even though he didnt raise pre, because i have no idea how he plays.
Feel free to butcher my range, actually, please do...

thanks

---

I've never seen a limp/call from AA/KK at 10nl. A couple of times in 100k hands + I've seen a limp/3bet.

Preflop: 22-TT, Ax, sc's, suited 1-gappers and broadways + possible junk.
Flop: ditch 22 - 44, A2-A6, low sc's, low 1gaps
Turn: no hands excluded here...

That leave 55 -TT, A7+, KT+, QT+, J9+, T9, 98, 87, 76, T8, 97, 86.

That's a pretty wide range, but we're talking about a complete unknown at 10nl 6max. The more likely by a good bit are the pp's and Ax hands.

Someone else can Stove it, if anyone cares. Villain plays this line for any two spades, J9, Qx, Kx, A9 along with made hands 2 pair and bigger. Call. You're probably ahead.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by settecba

Flop: ($1.70) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, MP1 calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.10) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $2.10

---

It seems like you are betting exactly the right amount so that you will face a difficult decision when he raises your turn bet.

Bet more flop, bet more turn and call for the rest of his stack or go all-in. I think this line is +EV against standard NL10 villain without read.

]^^Gotta agree with him here. On the flop you made a pretty standard 2/3 bet (which I would have probably made myself) but on the turn you bet only half of the pot... he only called on the flop which may have been a signal that he was drawing... I'd highly doubt a set is in his range as he would have most likely re-raised the flop... at this point I'd put him on JT... he called the flop bet and then shoved over you on the turn... either a straight or this kid is a donk.