Do you bet the river here?

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10-07-2008, 12:39 PM
Danh Bai

Do you bet the river here?

Pre-flop raise is only 3xbb because everyone on this table is folding...
Did't bet the river because I wasn't sure if he was on a str8 draw and didn't want to get check raised. Is this line of thinking correct?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (10 handed) - Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($8.85)
SB ($15.20)
BB ($22.95)
UTG ($12.50)
UTG+1 ($24.05)
MP1 ($17.25)
Hero (MP2) ($21.05)
MP3 ($29.70)
CO ($26.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, 4 folds, BB calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.30) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, BB calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.70) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.70, BB calls $2.70

River: ($8.10) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $8.10 | Rake: $0.40
10-07-2008, 01:18 PM
Monty3038

I'm still a noob but I'm also thinking he might have the busted flush draw too... flop was good for clubs, turn didn't help but he still had a shot, though odds didn't help him ;)

Anyone... is my thought close?

Though with the turn call he may well have the idiot end straight... 35 or maybe 5-8?
10-07-2008, 01:29 PM
Danh Bai

Yeah, with my luck I thought he might have A5c lol
10-07-2008, 01:50 PM
sublime8316

I'm also still a newb, but what i would be thinking about here is what is our read on villian, how aggressive/passive is he. How is his usual play on late streets? good or spewy. Against a passive or horrible late street player which there are tons of at microstakes i think after that river check we could bet thin value here. But yea my vote is read dependent. What kind of cards is he calling raises with and also from the blinds?
10-07-2008, 07:04 PM
al yell

bet adjustment: a good standard open, in general, is pot - 3.5xbb ($0.70). If people want to fold, let 'em fold. When they do call you'll have an easier time defining their range.

flop: gotta bet more. If he is on a draw you're letting him in too cheaply. 0.90 to 1.10 is reasonable. And again, if called you can narrow down his range. In addition he may even suspect you're weak as it looks like you don't want to be called..and.. you're building a pot to be able to fire a bigger bet on the Turn

Turn: see! you'd have been able to bet more and prob take down this pot right here.

River: i like to overbet here - make it look like you've missed your draw. As for him a backdoor flush is unlikely, and there's no reason for him to have a five. A set would have raised you at some point with the flush draw on board. Take him to value town! He can call with SO many hands that you beat. A7, 88-TT - and tons more if he thinks you're just trying to steal the pot.
10-07-2008, 08:11 PM
sarbox68

I do not. His PF range absolutely includes 55, 22, 44, 77 and 66... also 56s... all of which cream you right now. With absolutely no reads given, he also could be f-@ss retarded calling the Turn for bad pot-odds on club flush draw. So you're either dead or not - which is why some kind of reads (stats, anything....) is kinda important.

You got two streets of value out of this, and will likely have to fold to a raise or a shove. With zero reads, I check this down - as there is viable stuff out there that kills you, and all you really have is one pair (a nice pair, but still only one pair... which is only 1 degree better than no pair...). See what he has, write some sh!t down... and now you haz reads! :)
10-07-2008, 09:27 PM
swiggidy

Quote:

Originally Posted by sarbox68

You got two streets of value out of this, and will likely have to fold to a raise or a shove.

lol, you are a nit

1) find a new table
2) bet closer to pot on the flop
3) turn fine
4) bet river, ton of value. With a read I might consider b/f.
10-07-2008, 09:33 PM
xX zorrito Xx

be the river!!! fold to aggression..
10-08-2008, 12:09 AM
sarbox68

Quote:

Originally Posted by swiggidy

Quote:

Originally Posted by sarbox68

You got two streets of value out of this, and will likely have to fold to a raise or a shove.

lol, you are a nit

Lolz... I do not deny it... ;) Momz always told me "$2 in your pocket better than $4 in his..." -- and then gave my $2 to my brother....

I do think you gotta have better than a 50% chance of winning this hand IF the bet is called or raised in order to make sense to bet. Otherwise, there's no point to betting the River IP -- worst will fold and better will call/raise. And IMHO, I don't think we're 50% on this one....

And if this sounds nitty, re-read what Momz old me... :D
10-08-2008, 02:08 AM
Danh Bai

My line of thinking is similar to yours Sarbox. I sometimes wonder if I'm too nitty. He wouldn't have called me anyway, or he would have bluffed at it with his busted draw and raised me, then I'd be faced with a tough decision. But I wonder if by me checking there he thought to himself "I shoulda taken a shot at it'" and sees me as weak and will take a shot next time.
10-08-2008, 02:18 AM
sarbox68

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danh Bai

But I wonder if by me checking there he thought to himself "I shoulda taken a shot at it'" and sees me as weak and will take a shot next time.

... but I would have called a reasonable bet IP as well... so him "taking a shot" w/ bluff crap would have only ended up with him value towning his self... which I'm more than happy for him to do!

Plus the inverse of what you just said is that he'll read (assuming he's thinking at all...) a future bet or raise on our part in the same position as being stronger than what he saw us check down with. So feel free to use that to bluff with worse on a future hand.... (again, assuming he's paying attention...)
10-08-2008, 02:50 AM

Correction: you need to be good more than 50% of the time IF CALLED
because he check/raises the top of his range, and calls with the middle part of his range

so you need to be good 50% of the time when called OR check/raised

let's say he check/raises 10% of the time here
we'll assume we fold to the river check/raise

for example if he folds 50% of the time, c/r 10% of the time, calls 40% of the time
we get nothing for the 50% of the time that he folds so EV=0
we lose our bet 10% of the time so EV=-0.1
we have to be good 60% of the time to get EV=0.1 from our bet

so to break even we need to be good 60% of the time that WE'RE CALLED
10-08-2008, 11:53 AM
GatorJH

you could get value out of 8c9c, 99, TT and JJ so a value bet here is definitely worth it. I would bet around $6 and probably would call a smallish raise but would fold to a shove.
10-08-2008, 01:43 PM
cardsman1992

I like $5-$6 on the river.

Most people aren't patient enough to c/r the river with a monster out of fear you'll check behind. Your value against their calling range is pretty good based on that.

I probably bet $1 on the flop too fwiw.
10-08-2008, 01:47 PM
Chopper

bet/fold without a read of "villain will bluff raise." if you have that read, i can see you fearing a c/r. but, otherwise you are just missing value.
10-08-2008, 08:16 PM
sarbox68

... unless villain figures 3 streets of letting you value town yourself is a more likely way to win one more bet than all of a sudden coming to life on the river....
10-08-2008, 08:23 PM
spoonitnow

Quote:

Originally Posted by sarbox68

I do not. His PF range absolutely includes 55, 22, 44, 77 and 66... also 56s... all of which cream you right now. With absolutely no reads given, he also could be f-@ss retarded calling the Turn for bad pot-odds on club flush draw. So you're either dead or not - which is why some kind of reads (stats, anything....) is kinda important.

You got two streets of value out of this, and will likely have to fold to a raise or a shove. With zero reads, I check this down - as there is viable stuff out there that kills you, and all you really have is one pair (a nice pair, but still only one pair... which is only 1 degree better than no pair...). See what he has, write some sh!t down... and now you haz reads! :)

Sort of off topic, but be careful about the type of reasoning made in the bold. Just because he could have had these hands preflop doesn't make it likely that he has them now after this action.
10-08-2008, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sarbox68

... unless villain figures 3 streets of letting you value town yourself is a more likely way to win one more bet than all of a sudden coming to life on the river....

or villain could have been liek lol I have pair I CALLS DOWN
10-08-2008, 08:25 PM
sarbox68

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Sort of off topic, but be careful about the type of reasoning made in the bold. Just because he could have had these hands preflop doesn't make it likely that he has them now after this action.

Not off topic in the least IMO.... tho' I think that range still holds for a either a calling station, or someone who's happy to let Hero value town hizself IP...
10-08-2008, 08:26 PM
sarbox68

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Quote:

Originally Posted by sarbox68

... unless villain figures 3 streets of letting you value town yourself is a more likely way to win one more bet than all of a sudden coming to life on the river....

or villain could have been liek lol I have pair I CALLS DOWN

mmmmmm.... retarded villains.....
10-09-2008, 03:36 PM
notoriousnf

I would most definitely bet the river in a situation like this... TBH, putting a 5 in his range is almost out of the question, you raised preflop so almost any hand with a 5 is highly unlikely.. if he shoves over the top then you have a decision, bluff or no bluff?