$25NL. Valuebet here?

Villain is 40/12 for 35 hands. Should you valuebet this river?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($12.05)
Hero (CO) ($29.10)
Button ($4.65)
SB ($25)
BB ($25.05)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($5)
MP1 ($23.90)
MP2 ($7.25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (3 players)
BB bets $1, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2

Turn: ($7.80) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (3 players)
BB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

River: ($16.80) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero ?,

bet small and fold to raise imo. He's got a wide range here and looks to me like a missed str8 draw. I don't think checking is a huge mistake but you can definitely be called by worse.

very good question. hopefully someone with more insight can add their 2 cents.

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Originally Posted by al yell

bet small and fold to raise imo.

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Sorry, but don't like this at all. Risk getting pushed off the hand to get just a little more value?

Meh... I'd prolly just check this down, but I'm not thin value-bet king (or anything that closely resembles it...) You've already got 2 streets of value out of your set. Why re-open the betting when you're IP and there are flush and straights that beat you. I check and see a SD... get some info on what he had and how he played... and maybe make some moniez too. :shock:

check it. your behind a big part of villains range imo.

CHECK!!!! cold call on the turn?... eek...

Range is not one of my strongest points but here it is. I reckon villains range is massive and were ahead of a good bit that will call a value bet. Check behind is safe option though so I dunno

44+,Ac2c+,Kc2c+,,Qc2c+,Jc2c+,,Tc2c+,,9c2c+,8c2c+,7 c2c+,6c2c+,5c2c+,,4c2c+,3c2c,AQo+,A8o-A5o,Q8o-Q5o,97o+,84o+,74o+,64o+,54o

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Originally Posted by sarbox68

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Originally Posted by al yell

bet small and fold to raise imo.

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Sorry, but don't like this at all. Risk getting pushed off the hand to get just a little more value?

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with all due respect, if extracting value is not the whole point of this game then what is?

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Originally Posted by al yell

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Originally Posted by sarbox68

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Originally Posted by al yell

bet small and fold to raise imo.

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Sorry, but don't like this at all. Risk getting pushed off the hand to get just a little more value?

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with all due respect, if extracting value is not the whole point of this game then what is?

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Never said it wasn't. I already have value. The question is how thin is the incremental value I'm going for. How much extra value do I get if I re-open the betting, only getting called or raised by hands that beat me? Or... face a check-raise that may or may not be a bluff (no reads given) putting me to a difficult decision. IMHO, the value is too thin here to make it worth my while to risk either of these. I can focus on playing these situations when I'm actually up against someone with reads...

raise flop bigger.

as played probably check.

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Originally Posted by sarbox68

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Originally Posted by al yell

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Originally Posted by sarbox68

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Originally Posted by al yell

bet small and fold to raise imo.

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Sorry, but don't like this at all. Risk getting pushed off the hand to get just a little more value?

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with all due respect, if extracting value is not the whole point of this game then what is?

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....only getting called or raised by hands that beat me?

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we can def be called by worse here imo. That being said I do agree with your conservative play if,
a) you don't like variance
b) have some other intuitive reason for it, perhaps from meta game
c) have solid read on Villain
d) are playing at the bottom threshold of your BR
e) tilt easily
and so on..

and please sarbox68 this isn't an attack, just playing devil's advocate for the argument's sake. It's hard to convey proper disposition over a forum thread but I'm not the confrontational type, fyi.

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Originally Posted by OhBollocks

Range is not one of my strongest points but here it is. I reckon villains range is massive and were ahead of a good bit that will call a value bet. Check behind is safe option though so I dunno

44+,Ac2c+,Kc2c+,,Qc2c+,Jc2c+,,Tc2c+,,9c2c+,8c2c+,7 c2c+,6c2c+,5c2c+,,4c2c+,3c2c,AQo+,A8o-A5o,Q8o-Q5o,97o+,84o+,74o+,64o+,54o

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This range makes my head hurt.... ;) ... and it may make add up to a 40% VPIP... but that of course goes out the window as soon as a cold calls you PF, then donks the flop, flats your raise and donks the turn...

By that point it's way narrower. IMHO the type of hands that like to cold-call complete in the BB include mid-small pockets looking to hit a set, Axs, Kxs, suited connectors/gappers and maybe unsuited connectors. And this board by the Turn is nasty as f-k for a big chunk of that range, esp. given villains persistent agression thru flop & turn.

That being said, you could still be ahead. However, you need to be ahead more than 50% of the time when vil calls your bet to make it worth betting (assuming they fold if behind such as with a busted straight draw, etc.)... and I just don't think you are. Add to that any chance this guy might be a) setting you up for a check-raise for value or b) willing/able to bluff raise over a small value bet, and I def believe you're sub-50.

B/F $8 imo. Villian will rarely bluff raise this river as a 40/12

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Originally Posted by al yell

and please sarbox68 this isn't an attack, just playing devil's advocate for the argument's sake. It's hard to convey proper disposition over a forum thread but I'm not the confrontational type, fyi.

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Dude... I do not have a vag so don't get things stuck up in it :D You didn't come across as an attack at all...

I'll be the first to admit I am nittier than some, but it works for me. I still wouldn't re-open the betting on this board with nothin' but an overpair for all of the above reasons. But that's just me... :shock:

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Originally Posted by sarbox68

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Originally Posted by al yell

and please sarbox68 this isn't an attack, just playing devil's advocate for the argument's sake. It's hard to convey proper disposition over a forum thread but I'm not the confrontational type, fyi.

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Dude... I do not have a vag so don't get things stuck up in it :D You didn't come across as an attack at all...

I'll be the first to admit I am nittier than some, but it works for me. I still wouldn't re-open the betting on this board with nothin' but a set for all of the above reasons. But that's just me... :shock:

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FYP

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Originally Posted by sarbox68

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Originally Posted by OhBollocks

Range is not one of my strongest points but here it is. I reckon villains range is massive and were ahead of a good bit that will call a value bet. Check behind is safe option though so I dunno

44+,Ac2c+,Kc2c+,,Qc2c+,Jc2c+,,Tc2c+,,9c2c+,8c2c+,7 c2c+,6c2c+,5c2c+,,4c2c+,3c2c,AQo+,A8o-A5o,Q8o-Q5o,97o+,84o+,74o+,64o+,54o

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This range makes my head hurt.... ;) ... and it may make add up to a 40% VPIP... but that of course goes out the window as soon as a cold calls you PF, then donks the flop, flats your raise and donks the turn...

By that point it's way narrower. IMHO the type of hands that like to cold-call complete in the BB include mid-small pockets looking to hit a set, Axs, Kxs, suited connectors/gappers and maybe unsuited connectors. And this board by the Turn is nasty as f-k for a big chunk of that range, esp. given villains persistent agression thru flop & turn.

That being said, you could still be ahead. However, you need to be ahead more than 50% of the time when vil calls your bet to make it worth betting (assuming they fold if behind such as with a busted straight draw, etc.)... and I just don't think you are. Add to that any chance this guy might be a) setting you up for a check-raise for value or b) willing/able to bluff raise over a small value bet, and I def believe you're sub-50.

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Limptards range is wider than you think by the river. I still think the range I posted (it made my head hurt too btw) is good on the river. I gave no reads other than stats on villain but I should have stated that my table image was very agg as I'd hit a nice streak of playable cards+action.

I agree with Bbickies that we wont often see a bluff raise here.

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Originally Posted by OhBollocks

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Originally Posted by sarbox68

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Originally Posted by al yell

and please sarbox68 this isn't an attack, just playing devil's advocate for the argument's sake. It's hard to convey proper disposition over a forum thread but I'm not the confrontational type, fyi.

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Dude... I do not have a vag so don't get things stuck up in it :D You didn't come across as an attack at all...

I'll be the first to admit I am nittier than some, but it works for me. I still wouldn't re-open the betting on this board with nothin' but a set for all of the above reasons. But that's just me... :shock:

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FYP

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yeah... that's what I meant.... :D

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Originally Posted by OhBollocks

Range is not one of my strongest points but here it is. I reckon villains range is massive and were ahead of a good bit that will call a value bet. Check behind is safe option though so I dunno

44+,Ac2c+,Kc2c+,,Qc2c+,Jc2c+,,Tc2c+,,9c2c+,8c2c+,7 c2c+,6c2c+,5c2c+,,4c2c+,3c2c,AQo+,A8o-A5o,Q8o-Q5o,97o+,84o+,74o+,64o+,54o

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From my understanding of defining ranges, from here i believe you look at the board/action and narrow down his 'likely' holdings (or unlikely holdings and do a process of elimination type thing). And do it on every street.

In theory he could have ANY two suited cards, but the guy is only raising 12% of his hands so he has SOME idea of what a strong hand is. So is he really limp/calling from the BB with 84o? Not likely right? Proceed from there.

I throw $10 in the middle.

Villain is 42/10. Albeit small sample, but good players don't get those stats over 35 hands so we can fairly safely generalize this player to be terrible postflop. A set here is ahead here more than enough to make this a vbet.

You shouldn't be afraid to vbet these loose donks on even semi-scary boards like this. Massiv lost value IMO.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OhBollocks

Range is not one of my strongest points but here it is. I reckon villains range is massive and were ahead of a good bit that will call a value bet. Check behind is safe option though so I dunno

44+,Ac2c+,Kc2c+,,Qc2c+,Jc2c+,,Tc2c+,,9c2c+,8c2c+,7 c2c+,6c2c+,5c2c+,,4c2c+,3c2c,AQo+,A8o-A5o,Q8o-Q5o,97o+,84o+,74o+,64o+,54o

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After two flats and two donks on this board, I think you can def eliminate a chunk of this range. For instance... I don't think he's cold calling w/ Q80-Q50... let alone taking this line with what amounts to some kinda pair, meh kicker (Q5o-Q7o) pre-river...

Also, VPIP stat is obv different than cold-call, and that range will usually be sig smaller... for example, this range has every combination of clubs - def something that makes sense to play on the flop, but I just don't see vil having the foresight to flat this wide pre-flop... unless you also assume he's gonna play any two suited of any suit, which blows his range the f-k up...

oh... and the wtf does it take around here to get one of them flamey spade things on the index??? I'm running out of things to say.... :shock:

I think I b/f like 10.

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Originally Posted by JinxT4

I think I b/f like 10.

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Originally Posted by dozer

...something similar...

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Can one of you explain to me how you fold after putting 2/3 of your stack in the middle, esp given the pot odds / eff stacks? Vil has only got 6.50 behind to shove over, so you're looking at what, almost 9:1? If you're going to take the added value line w/ a $10 bet, you gotta be committing yourself to call...

I guess villain "defends" his blind with a lotta crap.

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (3 players)
BB bets $1, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2

Turn: ($7.80) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (3 players)
BB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

River: ($16.80) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $10

Total pot: $36.80 | Rake: $1.80

Results in white below:
BB had 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (two pair, Queens and fives).
Hero had 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (three of a kind, sixes).
Outcome: Hero won $35

Im with Sarbox on wtf fold to a shove over a $10 bet? Its pretty safe to assume were beat then but if hes bluffing 1 time in 10 we have to call right?