Mid pp overpair vs. a shortstack

Villain is 35/21/4
I think he will stack off lightly because he's a shortstacker
So 77 or 99 here is most of his range. So is this a coinflip? Either I'm crushed or I crush him. 66 would suck, but he could also have something silly like AK

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($5)
UTG ($23.30)
UTG+1 ($8.80)
Hero (MP1) ($25)
MP2 ($30.55)
MP3 ($7.55)
CO ($9.65)
Button ($36.85)
SB ($16.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 4 folds, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.75) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB raises to $4, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($9.75) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets $11.75 (All-In), Hero ?

How did you narrow his range to exactly 77/99?

I'm assuming you called the flop b/c you thought you were good? If so, then ship it in on the turn I guess.

Fwiw, I'd fold to the flop c/r.

because he just called PF
but of course he could have 22, TT as well
but I think that he might repop TT preflop because I raised from the button at least some of the time

but I'm just saying a large part of his range is pps because two high cards wouldn't play this aggressively on the flop/turn
not sure if he would call a raise with a suited connector

so I would say there is like a "most often" range and "sometimes range"

most often:
77, 88 for tie, 99, 22, 55, 66
sometimes:
AKo, AQs, TT+, 33, 44

so for my "most often" range I have
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

880 games 0.015 secs 58,666 games/sec

Board: 2d 5c 2h 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.864% 31.36% 02.50% 276 22.00 { 8h8s }
Hand 1: 66.136% 63.64% 02.50% 560 22.00 { 99-55, 22 }


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uhh not good

for my sometimes range I have

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,552 games 0.005 secs 510,400 games/sec

Board: 2d 5c 2h 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.044% 44.04% 00.00% 1124 0.00 { 8h8s }
Hand 1: 55.956% 55.96% 00.00% 1428 0.00 { TT+, 44-33, AQs, AKo }


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So I guess I was just hoping he was out of line

most of the time villain doesn't bluff.

here are your best options after the check raise:
fold
then
raise
then
call

you could click it back (min raise) to get a better idea of the hand you're up against

or you could fold.

the other option is to call and have villain check turn because his AK wiffed and he gave up.... this is very very rare though and not worth taking

You say villain is 35/21, but put him on only premium hands b/c he "just called pf"?

Also, you messed up the board on your pokerstove calcs (not that it's really a big deal b/c 552 is close enough to 522).

no, I'm putting him on premium hands because he c/raised the flop and shoved the turn

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

I think he will stack off lightly because he's a shortstacker

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This is something I am really trying to work on. I like to think short stackers stack off light but in reality they normally have a good hand here. I would fold.

Clar

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

So 77 or 99 here is most of his range.

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no it's not

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

So 77 or 99 here is most of his range.

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no it's not

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I'm overestimating by saying "most"
what do you think about the ranges I posted

What is the thinking for calling this raise?

There isn't anything for you to draw to (beyond an 8, of course) but there are cards you really don't want to see (like A/K, maybe other big cards depending on how often this guy is calling raises with unpaired cards and how aggressive he usually is on flop). If you think you're ahead, raise - if you think you're crushed, give it up imo.