How often do YOU felt villain w/ sets?

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Like seriously, over the last 25K (+/-) hands I don't think I've stacked one single person. Oh of course though, I've gotten drawn out own and even folded in spots where I was damn near positive I was beat. Variance, blah, blah, blah... 25K ain't shit, yadda, yadda, yadda.

I don't generally play sets fast (unless there's obvious draws) but I don't really slow-play them either. I'm not going to go through every situation and possible move here (because you should already know them).

There are different opinions on implied odds with sets. The general rule is around 10:1 to 15:1. Considering my last 25K hands, it seems like my odds either don't mean shit or they should be some astronomical amount like 50:1 against some uber-stacking maniac.

So back to the topic question, how often do you felt villains when hitting your set? 1:3? 1:10? Wha?

Always on the flop?

I damn near never stack an opponent when I hit a set.

On occassion, I get stacked when I have a set.

Over the last 15K hands I've been able to go all in and get called with a set three times. Twice I've gotten outdrawn :/

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Originally Posted by poker_pup

On occassion, I get stacked when I have a set.

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Herein lies the problem.

Over a large sample, I tend to profit 20-25bb per set.

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Originally Posted by Mezza Morta

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Originally Posted by poker_pup

On occassion, I get stacked when I have a set.

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Herein lies the problem.

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So that means we should obviously just fold all our sets then right?? Cuz that's what the results are saying.

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Over a large sample, I tend to profit 20-25bb per set.

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I'd say this about dead on for me as well. This wasn't meant to be another rant post, rather, more so begging to question why in the blue hell does anyone ever play small pairs for set values with only 10:1 odds?

I'm not a math guru, hell, I have a hard time figuring out pot odds on the fly as it is. So, if we average 20-25bb per set, how much does implied odds against villain change from the 10:1 rule?

I don't think it's been the 10:1 rule for a long time. More like 20:1, maybe 15:1

When you can put Villain on a tighter range that consists of a lot of big pairs (such as when an insanely tight player 3-bets) then you can get away with smaller implied odds since you stack them more often when you hit.

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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

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Originally Posted by Mezza Morta

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Originally Posted by poker_pup

On occassion, I get stacked when I have a set.

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Herein lies the problem.

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So that means we should obviously just fold all our sets then right?? Cuz that's what the results are saying.

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No, but should we fold small pairs more often pre-flop instead of set-hunting all the time? I mean, if we're getting say, 15:1 implied odds to call a raise but only get a small return (20bb pot), how did our implied odds change? Leaving hindsight out of it, was it still a profitable call?

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Originally Posted by Mezza Morta

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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

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Originally Posted by Mezza Morta

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Originally Posted by poker_pup

On occassion, I get stacked when I have a set.

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Herein lies the problem.

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So that means we should obviously just fold all our sets then right?? Cuz that's what the results are saying.

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No, but should we fold small pairs more often pre-flop instead of set-hunting all the time? I mean, if we're getting say, 15:1 implied odds to call a raise but only get a small return (20bb pot), how did our implied odds change? Leaving hindsight out of it, was it still a profitable call?

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Not all of your value from calling with small pairs preflop comes from when you hit a straight. At least it shouldn't.

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Originally Posted by Mezza Morta

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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

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Originally Posted by Mezza Morta

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Originally Posted by poker_pup

On occassion, I get stacked when I have a set.

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Herein lies the problem.

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So that means we should obviously just fold all our sets then right?? Cuz that's what the results are saying.

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No, but should we fold small pairs more often pre-flop instead of set-hunting all the time? I mean, if we're getting say, 15:1 implied odds to call a raise but only get a small return (20bb pot), how did our implied odds change? Leaving hindsight out of it, was it still a profitable call?

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There is more to the equation than just figuring out if the effective stack is >15 times the amount you need to call. As spoon pointed out our opponent needs to come into play. If they are incredibly tight you don't have to get 15-20:1 because their range is so narrow you stand to stack them more often. Also, in my understanding, if they are incredibly loose both pre and postflop, then you can settle for less than 15:1 as well because they will pay you when you hit generally.

Also another thing that plays a role is position. With position it will be easier to manipulate the pot and get the money in than oop. Therefore, I tend to not set hunt "as much" when oop.

On the topic of how often we felt a set, I don't think I've ever folded a set on the flop. Even against made better hands like flopped flushes and straight you have 10 outs to win. And rarely can we ever put their range on just that. The only that that has you crushed on the flop is a higher set, but that doesn't happen all that often.

Let me just say that at 25nl villains stack off less than half as often with TP/overpair hands against sets (compared to 10nl). But I make up for it by paying off twice as many sets myself.

I'm often raising instead of calling with PPs so implied odds mean less.

Over 40k hands I've been dealt PPs 2370 times and showndown:

69 sets for avg 21bb profit
44 boats for avg 28bb profit
1 quads for 28bb profit

I've had a set on the flop 166 times and won an avg of 16bbs. Doesnt look like I've ever folded a set on the flop :p.

Of the 166 times I flopped a set, I've gotten to showdown 61 times, so better than 1 in 3 but not all of those have been aill in either because they've just called down and I havnt been able to get it all in, or the boards turned scary on me and I've gotten to showdown somewhat cheaply.

Overall from PPs dealt I've made 2.17 bb per hand.


Of the times I've just called PF I've hit a set 55 times and made exactly the same profit per hand, however I'm losing overall with PPs where I've just called PF.


Note that the more detailed my filtering there the less meaningful the sample sizes become. For instance in my 543 times I've just called with a PP I'm down just under 20bbs, so if on the 544th time I hit a set and got 20bbs or more from it I'd be profitable. Fairly meaningless sample sizes.

Sometimes the villian decides to check the flop and I can take it down on the turn. Calling with pairs is not always for set value.

1) Has already been said... but 8:1 is a thing of the past IMO... 15:1 if playing for set value takes this reduced felt opportunity into account
2) Sure how the vil plays comes into account... I'll actually think twice calling an aggro CO raise to go HU w/ 22 in the SB.... that being said...

I will play just about any PP for set value in any position if I can get 15:1... partly for set value, partly to widen my range for cold calling, partly to open wider from EP, etc. etc.

Funny thing (and this may be just variance...)... I've stacked off more people at $25 by % over 30K hands than ever did at $10. Maybe it's folks willing to play draws and 2pr more aggressively... specifically calling CRAI or RAI on the Fl/Tu. Who knows.... and maybe time will tell that I'm smoking sh!t....

not necessarily a bad thing yo :shock: