the economic crisis is beginning to scare me shitless

reading up on what's happening, lots of doom n gloom and lots of it is from somewhat high profile or somewhat reputable sources. in an attempt to get a more accurate picture of the situation, i deferred to the austrian economics site given by 2_thumbs_up. here's an article about if the bail outs will work. http://www.mises.org/story/3119 . they conclude it wont, and they seem to know what they're talking about

so my freaked lazy broke ass is now working as much as possible to buy as much gold as i can. if the shit hits the fan hopefully i'll have enough by then to weather the storm

so thumbs or sarbox or somebody who knows tell me it gonna be all right. or at least, if anybody knows (or at least has a good idea), can you explain whats actually gonna happen, when, and how long. im sure an accurate picture exists, it's just that finding it is difficult

y gold?

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

y gold?

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$880/ounce

i will obv look more into it, but if the dollar collapses then they say that other currencies, like the euro, will also be hit v hard, but i dunno.

diversifying is probably smart, but it also seems that gold is the single most stalwart indication of wealth.

Other countries rely on us too much trade wise to not support our economy. Which means that the dollar may depreciate somewhat but will never "collapse". Everyone on Earth would be so fucked if the US goes under that it wont happen.

Not a finance guy but I think the price of gold is really high right now.

Umm, wait a bit more and get back into the stock market?

Purely opinion, but I don't think it will ever get to the point where I'm worried about enough money to get by (actually referring to me personally). Because if it gets to that point that means the government collapsed and I'd be worried about my own safety. Like if you buy this "gold" how are you ever going to collect it?

I think putting it all into gold is a bad bad idea.

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Originally Posted by swiggidy

the price of gold is really high right now.

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I'd rather buy stocks on sale.

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Originally Posted by Warpe

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Originally Posted by swiggidy

the price of gold is really high right now.

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I'd rather buy stocks on sale.

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this idea is not horrible

People make billions in times like these buying cheap stock, investing in inflated gold (because a lot of people are buying gold) might be ok but it will lose value when the economy improves.

gold is okay, i have a decent amount in my portfolio for various reasons. Notably b/c its negatively correlated to my USD i keep in my BR, and also b/c markets/currencies are v.unstable right now. Just make sure you don't buy more than like 10% of your overall portfolio. As for stocks I'd start accumulating slowly, and keep accumulating slowly on the days the market drops 2-3%.

The worst thing you can invest right now are gold and silver. They are rediculously overpriced at the moment. Great time for a short position, though.

BTW the Austrian economists are generally monetarists so they've thought we're due to be fucked for a long time, this is just a good chance for them to harp.

but i agree we're fucked, just not great depression fucked. Our debts are massive and credit is in crisis. Not good, but we'll get out of it. A good start would be for the US government to severely reduce its debt by invoking a longterm 20-40 year plan.

Ron Paul Before the U.S. House of Representatives, April 25, 2006
What the Price of Gold Is Telling Us

Click here [/url]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbSRJRxV_WU

Warren Buffett bought into Goldman yesterday. I respect the man immensely and, considering his risk aversion,
take great comfort in that move. I think that is far more indicative of the future than anything the media is presenting.

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Originally Posted by The_OG_Rocco

So you see my dear mortal friends, worrying about money or the future

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Does the river count as the future? I gotta quit playing Limit then.

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Originally Posted by Squeaky_Midget1

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Originally Posted by Warpe

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Originally Posted by swiggidy

the price of gold is really high right now.

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I'd rather buy stocks on sale.

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this idea is not horrible

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"Be cautious when others are being greedy, but be greedy when others are being cautious." -Warren Buffett on how the average American can gain wealth through stock investing. I'd say others are being cautious right now.

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Originally Posted by allabout

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Originally Posted by Squeaky_Midget1

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Originally Posted by Warpe

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Originally Posted by swiggidy

the price of gold is really high right now.

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I'd rather buy stocks on sale.

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this idea is not horrible

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"Be cautious when others are being greedy, but be greedy when others are being cautious." -Warren Buffett on how the average American can gain wealth through stock investing. I'd say others are being cautious right now.

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"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it will get a $5 billion investment from billionaire Warren Buffett's company, marking one of the biggest expressions of confidence in the financial system since the credit crisis intensified early this month."

Warren Buffet is certainly a very smart man and investor, but there are other very smart men as well, such as Jim Rogers who are doing pretty much the exact opposite.

For a pretty good concise and plain English explanation of what's going on this is a good article although almost a week old:

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.co...ial-upheavals/

Seems to me there will be more problems in short terms but it will help to correct the inefficiencies that created the problem in the first place.

An make monies playing poker :wink:

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Originally Posted by kingnat

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Originally Posted by Deanglow

how can anyone can be so fucking dumb is beyond me
- jesus christ

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fyp?

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:clap: :clap: :clap:

Live Paulson/Bernanke hearing for those who are interested:

http://www.c-span.com/Watch/C-SPAN3_rm.aspx

Even Surowiecki conceded that "rational expectation" bubbles are a failure of crowd intelligence... Global finances are a big f-kin water balloon. Except in situations where value just evaporates (the current credit crisis being an example of this...) ... the water goes from one place to another. People freak out on equities, then squeeze all their water into another part of the balloon - gold, commodities etc - which, because they are also priced by free market supply and demand, sends the ask price through the roof.

The current value of gold is not inherent - it's only worth what people are willing to pay... which could change in a heartbeat ... and is already inflated 'cause the crowds been squeezing the water balloon especially hard of late.

Be careful (and thoughtful...) chasing any crowd movement (... speculative investing in real estate over the past couple of years and the tech stock bubble are both solid recent examples) 'cause timing can be a bitch. And as Alexos said... diversify, diversify, diversify.

If you buy in to the whole balloon, don't f-kin matter much where the water gets squeezed to... :shock:

IMO, right now:

Silver > Platinum >>> Gold

Can you invest in copper? if so I say copper.

Answer: Play poker and make lots of monies

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Originally Posted by ProZachNation

Can you invest in copper? if so I say copper.

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I've never looked into it, but there is a spot price for copper and other commodities, so I imagine you could.

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Originally Posted by ProZachNation

Can you invest in copper? if so I say copper.

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copper is just as overpriced as is gold, people over here have already begun stealing bronce statues and railway/tramway cables.

Today I read an article about the comeback of the word "decline" in the US press. Nice to see how it made it´s way from the outer left to everyones mouth atm. For a euro it´s kinda weird to see true economic pessimism growing in the us, we thought we had the monopoly on negative thinking.

what i dont like, and what would be highly valuable analysis, are comparisons of the causes and factors of the great depression with our current crisis.

the more rational side of me thinks that it's silly to think that this could be close to on par with the GD for specific reasons why things are different now. for example: US was not the super power back then that it is now, and yet the rest of the world was hit by the GD pretty badly. this suggests that the US economy plummeting would destroy the global economy; so it's not just a scenario of the US taxpayer gets fucked by the gambling of the wealthy, but that the entire world gets fucked by the gambling of the wealthy. if push comes to shove other nations will have to help out lest they wanna plummet too.

disclaimer: i could be wrong on details of the GD since i have not researched it much

also another positive thing is that the austrians seems to think that the likely worst case scenario is that this will be the mother of all recessions, not a depression.

and ron paul is so right. i disagree with him on most small issues, but god he is so fucking right about the economy. he's like the only politician who has ever tried to address any problem's root.

also i dont understand how the bail outs will not cause and even greater time of economic turmoil in our future. i mean it is creating more speculative money right, and that's what got us in the problem in the first place right?

wufwugy have you seen the thread zook made on this subject about a week ago. There is a link to a very interesting speech in that thread that you probably want to see. It deals with most of the questions you just asked.

you mean the peter schiff one?

just watched it and watched lots other schiff interviews. he sounds spot on, has predicted most if not all of this for some time, and if im not mistaken he's an advisor to ron paul (didnt look the last one up).

if im interpreting him correctly he's claiming that bail outs only make the problem lessened or go away in the short run, but makes them worse in the long run. and if bail outs continue long enough then the USD will = 0 and the US will be destroyed.

also he seems to think that gold is a great great investment. also i think he claims that oil isnt more expensive but that inflation makes the dollar have less purchasing power so then it's more expensive in the dollar, but in gold it's stayed basically the same over the years.

random vid of his http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1_Yo2BGdUk&NR=1

so yea if these things are true or look very likely then im moving to a diff country before this one explodes

Yeah I meant the Schiff one. The reason I mention him is because he has been spot on so far, which should give him a lot of credibility unlike the regular wall street cheerleaders you see on tv. And it certainly gives him more credibility than me who is just a random forum guy. I don't think I've seen any debate where his arguments doesn't make more sense than his opponents.

Anyway, if you listen to anything of his more recent stuff he pretty much paints the most dire picture you can imagine. He is talking about a hyperinflationary depression if this shit continues down the path it seems to be going.

I just listened to a live radio show on his web site and he raised a very good point that I'd like to put out there. If this bailout is voted through, there is no way that the final bill will end at 700 billion. There is only a period of time before these losses start to really affect main street. At that point there will be a need for another plan. Washington can't bailout wall street and then ignore main street. That's political suicide. So politicians will feel compeled to bail everyone else out as well. The final bill will end in the trillions.

If you put this in perspective, the entire dollar reserve of China is at 1.3 trillions. So if this plan goes through, the US government will basically create more money out of thin air in a matter of months than what the chinese government holds in dollar reserves. There is simply no way in hell that any country is going to keep lending you money in those conditions. And when other governments stop backing US debt no one outside of America is going to want to hold dollars. All the dollars in the world are going to find their way back to US. This would mean that everyone who has their savings in dollars will see them completely evaporate.

I know most people here think I'm way over the top now. But many here have a lot of money to loose and I'm genuinly concerned. Also, most of you are smarter than avarage, so the least you should do is to look in to this stuff yourself.

i certainly put way more credence into the doom n gloom when the person predicting it has an impeccable prediction record. that type of thing is hella meaningful

schiff also said that he thinks gold with be about 5k/oz in USD by 2012

god i am doing absolutely nothing but pokering now until i can get my savings in stronger commodities and gtfo of this crumbling rome.

a major reason why im so convinced is because schiff actually explained the national debt, how it accumulates, and what it means. i had no clue before, yet have heard from other sources over the years that the national debt is the biggest problem in the US, but never heard that statement qualified. afaik, the national debt can be 100% considered analogous to all debt. when time comes to pay it yet you cant, you go bankrupt. just like lehman, if US doesnt change our policies from that of debtor to creditor (we wont, rp was prolly our last chance) then eventually the the US bankrupts. i cant see how it's not that simple. would another war on scope with WWII get US out of it? they say that made the great depression go away.

god i really think the US is doomed if it doesnt stop espousing the boom and bust economic policy while trying to eliminate the busts. thats essentially the entire foundation of schiff's argument afaik.

scary shit, but also motivates me to stop being so damned lazy.

2thumbs, do you know what kind of time frame and worst/best case scenarios schiff gives?

seriously rocco, would you just fuck off already?

wat

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Originally Posted by bode

seriously rocco, would you just fuck off already?

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wat

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I LOL'ed

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

reading up on what's happening, lots of doom n gloom and lots of it is from somewhat high profile or somewhat reputable sources. in an attempt to get a more accurate picture of the situation, i deferred to the austrian economics site given by 2_thumbs_up. here's an article about if the bail outs will work. http://www.mises.org/story/3119 . they conclude it wont, and they seem to know what they're talking about

so my freaked lazy broke ass is now working as much as possible to buy as much gold as i can. if the shit hits the fan hopefully i'll have enough by then to weather the storm

so thumbs or sarbox or somebody who knows tell me it gonna be all right. or at least, if anybody knows (or at least has a good idea), can you explain whats actually gonna happen, when, and how long. im sure an accurate picture exists, it's just that finding it is difficult

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http://img7.photobucket.com/albums/v...op_posting.jpg

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

somebody who knows tell me it gonna be all right. or at least, if anybody knows (or at least has a good idea), can you explain whats actually gonna happen, when, and how long. im sure an accurate picture exists, it's just that finding it is difficult

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there are too many variables for anyone to predict what is going to happen accurately. but everything will eventually work out, after the housing market bottoms and the bad assets are worked through the system.

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Originally Posted by reDZill4

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

reading up on what's happening, lots of doom n gloom and lots of it is from somewhat high profile or somewhat reputable sources. in an attempt to get a more accurate picture of the situation, i deferred to the austrian economics site given by 2_thumbs_up. here's an article about if the bail outs will work. http://www.mises.org/story/3119 . they conclude it wont, and they seem to know what they're talking about

so my freaked lazy broke ass is now working as much as possible to buy as much gold as i can. if the shit hits the fan hopefully i'll have enough by then to weather the storm

so thumbs or sarbox or somebody who knows tell me it gonna be all right. or at least, if anybody knows (or at least has a good idea), can you explain whats actually gonna happen, when, and how long. im sure an accurate picture exists, it's just that finding it is difficult

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http://img7.photobucket.com/albums/v...op_posting.jpg

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are you bipolar?

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

wat

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meh, someone moved/deleted rocco's post so no i look like an idiot.

could whoever did that move my post too so rocco can see it and maybe take the advice?