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I'm a Canadian online poker player. I play on PokerStars with USD.
Due to the pessimism with the economy, should I get out and move to a site that handles the Euro or British Pound? Should I stick with the Stars USD and just get the money out when I can and convert is asap?
I feel so lost with what I should do.
Hide it under mattress.
If you're having success on PokerStars then do this. It seems pretty stupid to use the weak dollar as an excuse to switch sites.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
What I'm doing right now is keeping about 1/3 of my bankroll online, 1/2 in a short-term COD earning 4% interest, and the rest in a high-yield savings account earning 3% interest.
Are COD's the best option right now with how uncertain the stock market is? I'm intereted to know what other people do with the part of their bankroll that they keep offline.
I'm currently set as follows:Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
father's mortgage: 60%
bank: 15%
Stars: 25%
this strat seems really uncertain to me
£3600 (each for me and G/F) in ISA paying 6% at mo, 35 buy ins online, nothing in neteller (due to weak dollar)
rest sits in a savings account making maybe 3-4%
I hear you OP. In the same boat myself and adk wtf to do.
If we convert our dollars to our home currency right now we're already making the 'mistake' of locking in a bad exchange rate but who knows if the situation is going to get better or worse. If zook is to be believed the dollar could be worth sweet fuck all soon enough! I guess at least if I took some $ off the net I could at least earn some interest to offset any further decline in the value of the dollar but getting through the red tape in the way of getting money from neteller to a decent investment vehicle without converting it to my home currency at any step along the way is rather difficult.
i just pulled half my roll into savings getting 7.6% in the govt. owned bank over here. The rest is sitting online - actually, that's my whole poker roll now I guess cos the rest is now 'life money'
jesus christ, if you knew about crypto ud be there in a heartbeat.
There is a last bubble and that is US treasuries. I believe this is the end of the dollar as the world reserve currency. When central banks all over the world start dumping their dollars, last one out is the biggest loser.
My advice is to stay away from the dollar, US stocks, any dollar denominated asset, and any company that is heavily reliable on their export to the US. Short term the dollar may go up. The market is acting really irrational right now, and bad news is taken as a sign that the bottom is reached. Long term the dollar is going nowhere but down so it's certainly a -ev move to stay in it.
Very shortsighted post imo. We still have the biggest economy out there and we will recover. However, looking into markets such as china isn't a bad idea.Quote:
Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up
The problem is that your GDP is dominated by consumption and borrowing, not production and savings. Therefore, it's not a measurement of much you have created, but of how much you have destroyed. 70% of the US economy is service based. It has relied on easy credit and house equity to exist. That is changing.
The US barely have any own savings, so the rest of the world have borrowed them their savings. The problem is that the US hasn't borrowed the money to reinvest it. They have borrowed to buy houses, new cars and plasma TVs. When you borrow to invest you will get a capital flow that can be used to pay back the loan. But when you borrow to consume the only way to pay back is with a reduced future consumption. The avarage american will have to get used to severely reduced standard of living as they need to pay back their loans and start building up their own savings pool.
Thumbs, we are consuming other countries shit tho. If our dollar fails well then every country to exports to America is fucked, so it make sense for them to support the dollar.
They are perfectly able to consume their own shit. As the dollar loses value all other currencies will gain value. There will certainly be some turmoil for everyone during the transition period, but once the dust settles those who own the appreciating currencies will be able to outbid americans.
You're also forgetting that US is consuming on borrowed money. The countries that are exporting the products are the same countries that are lending you the money to buy them. When they stop with this they'll have a lot more money to move around with. Since americans spent most of their borrowed money on unproductive consumption and false wealth (dotcom stocks and houses) it's impossible to pay back their current debts. No one is going to keep lending money in those conditions.
what exactly does the decrease in value of the USD do? im having trouble visualizing the effects.
like as the dollar goes down does my mortgage go up, does my car insurance go up, do i pay more for fruit? what actually happens and how?
also, doesnt this need to be contrasted with other factors? like isnt china's 'booming' economy based on the weakness of their currency?
i used to be on the doom and gloom side, but the more i look into it (which isnt saying much since economics is elaborate as hell) the more i dont see this going too far in that direction.
US is easily the most 'important' country on the planet. it's sad that that's true, but it's true, and it's not like we can crumble while the rest of the world remains unaffected. shit, we would go to war before we gave up too much; that's actually a pretty decent speculation about why iraq was invaded in the first place.
Very short explanation. As the demand for dollars is going down in the world (and all this uncertainty and bailouts will make that happen) foreigners will start exchanging their dollars to other currencies. More and more dollars will find it's way back to the US. One way to look at the consequences is like there is more money in the US competing for the same amount of goods. That will drive up prices on everything. On a global scale it means that the dollar will be less able to compete with other currencies and US as a whole will get less of the total amount of products in the world.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
That's a fallacy. Maybe short term but not in the long run. A weakening currency benefits your export but punishes your import. Simply put it means that China is able to send more stuff abroad but they get less back for it. If they'd allow their currency to appreciate their export companies would suffer initially, and probably have to lay some people off. However, it would be cheaper for them to buy consumer goods so they wouldn't actually have to export as much either. They would get more stuff for the same amount of money and this leaves room to start other companies etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
I recommend you to look into the Austrian school of economics. I think I've seen you favour Ron Paul and he is an Austrian. http://www.mises.org/ is the only site you'll ever need for that. They have free video and audio lectures and pretty much every book ever written on the subject. One of the first things I ever watched was an introduction course by Joseph Salerno and after that I was hooked.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
This is very true, and however this plays out, it will most certainly have global effects. However, US isn't exactly on firm footing this time and I believe they will feel it more than most.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
thanks that helps, and bookmarked link