ensign_lee's 9/14 winning picks (YTD: 9-3-0, +13.94 units)
SageStats ensign_lee
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Bets not tracked by SageStats found at http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?k...DlRSHfbA&hl=en
YTD: 9-3-0
Units Won: +13.94
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Was a nice first week, with the exception of the Colts getting completely wtfpwned by the Bears on Sunday night. And well, my heart hurt a lot inside because even though my PIT bet won, my Texans got thoroughly destroyed. And now with this mess about us basically using our bye week in week 2 (ugh), the prospects for the rest of the season look a lot bleaker now thanks to Ike.
But anyway, on to week 2, where hopefully the success will continue
Oakland Raiders M/L (+165)
2 units at theGreek
When I saw this line at +4, I should have taken it, but I didn't think it would end up moving. These are two teams in the cellar of the AFC West - the Oakland Raiders went and hired lots of older free agents whereas the Chiefs went and drafted a whole bunch of rookies to build their team. In the short term, with these NFL veterans going head to head against these rookies, I think that the Raiders have the edge.
At +165, I think they win this matchup often enough to make this bet +EV. Even if you don't buy that the Raiders may actually be the superior team, you can easily make the argument that they are of equal talent. In that case, the home line should be -3 and the moneyline should be at +120, not +160. But here we are; I think the Raiders win this often enough to make this bet worthwhile here.
Plus, if you follow reverse line movement, there is a 70/30 discrepancy on bets being made on this game, with people favoring the Chiefs. And yet the line moved from -4 to -3.5, with some books altering the juice to bring it to +3. I'll follow that line move.
Buffalo Bills M/L (+193.06)
2 units at Matchbook
You need look no further than last year's St. Louis Rams team to figure out what happens to a team when it has no offensive line. The interior line of the Jaguars is decimated at this point - their situation is insane. THey just signed Milford Brown, a person who fizzled out in Arizona after fizzling out in Houston. They just took in a LG who couldn't was part of the offensive line that gave up the most sacks in NFL History!
I don't think that the Jags offense will be able to put up the numbers required to get the job done here. In fact, I believe that the Bills defense, especially with the disruptive force of Stroud, will be able to dominate the Jags in the trenches all day. And with their running game largely neutralized, the Jags will throw the ball more and make more mistakes. I just don't see why the Jags are favored at home by 5 or so here. I should be at -1.5, maybe -2, and only then because of the fact that the Jags are at home.
I think that the Bills are being underrated in this matchup and that they win this game much more than the 1 in every 3 times or so required for this bet to break even.
Jacksonville Jaguars Team Total UNDER 21 (-115)
2 units at theGreek
Same reasoning as above. I just don't think that an offense can function cohesively without quality offensive linemen. This matchup is one that I'd like to exploit for maximum value and I think that this bet conveys my position best.
Parlay:
Buffalo Bills M/L, BUF/JAX UNDER 37.5 (+434.5)
2 units at theGreek
I think that these two plays are correlated enough to play together. Yes, there is the chance that Buffalo wins and the total goes over, but I think that they will be able to keep the Jags from scoring enough to make this worth it. At +434, I really think tying these two bets together presents a fair amount of value.
New England Patriots M/L (+108.78)
1 unit at Matchbook
Everyone seems to discount the Patriots now that Tom Brad is out. Well guess what - one player does not make a team. If Brady was still playing, this line would probably be at -7 or so. Yes, Tom Brady is good. No, he's not worth 6 points all by himself. I also think people are giving the Jets too much credit for their victory last week - the Patriots are still a strong team and I think they can head into the Meadowlands, even with a new QB, and win this game at least half the time, if not more. Cassell isn't some street FA QB - he's been in this system for a little while now, and I think he'll be just fine. The Patriots may not be able to play Madden and run up the score in real NFL football anymore, but that's ok - they don't need to do that to win.
Tennessee Titans +1 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan
The Titans have a defense that is talented enough to take on the Bengals offense. They may not suffocate that offense the same way that Baltimore did, but they will certainly be able to hold their own. The offense, on the other hand, without VY is *BETTER* offense with Collins at the helm. Yet everyone thinks that the offense will be taking a step back. No - they won't. Plus, with the performance and talent of the Bengals defense lately, they may not need to be all *that* good to win.
Throw in the fact that I think that the Bengals team chemistry is messed up beyond belief for the season, and here we are. TEN +1.
Minnesota M/L (+109)
1 unit at Matchbook
Minnesota held their own against a very good GB team last week. I'll admit that I was wrong in my assessment of their team talent. They held the ball, they played defense well for most of the game - they just got burned by a few huge plays on special teams and on offense. They play fundamentally sound football and that will lead to victories.
With the departure of the Colts starting DT due to his stupidity, there is a big hole up front that I'm not sure the Colts can immediately (if ever) compensate for. The talent of the Minnesota offensive line is so good they'll plow holes through the middle all day for Peterson and Taylor to run through. All Tarvaris Jackson has to do is not suck it up when his number is called; and all the coach has to do is not call 14 straight running plays or anything like that.
The Colts offense showed that it can be vulnerable sometimes, and with injuries to key starters on that side of the ball coupled with the noise in the Metrodome, I think that Minnesota can win more than half the time here.
Philadelphia M/L (+263)
2 units at Matchbook
I don't understand why this line came out at -7. Sure, Dallas is good. But *so is Philadelphia*. These are two evenly matched teams in a divisional rivalry game in the national spotlight - how can one team be spotting the other a TD? In my opinion, Philadelphia has the talent to go toe to toe with Dallas in every aspect of the game. They should win this game about half the time. Home field advantage *does not exist* at Texas stadium. I've been there in person as a fan of an opposing team and man, can that place get quiet. Sometime ridiculously explosive has to happen to get those fans up and off their feet. It's insane.
at +263, the Eagles only have to win this game once every 3.5 times or so to break even. I'm willing to take that bet.
