Ugly Spot: CRAI

new at table. no reads

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($3.19)
MP1 ($4.96)
MP2 ($2.79)
Hero (CO) ($2.49)
Button ($2.44)
SB ($1.52)
BB ($1.56)
UTG ($5)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.10, 3 folds, MP2 calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.23) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.20, MP2 raises to $2.69 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $0.63 | Rake: $0

Results in white below:
MP2 didn't show
Outcome: MP2 won $0.63

Meh I can't fold AJ+ here

I would call, you will run into worse Ax or Ax+FD, FD+gutshut str8 draw most of the time, you are either ahead or flipping with dead money in the pot

your backdoor flush draw gives you some protection against flush draw type hands you're even money with 9c8c

Typically when I see something like that they either flopped two pair or a set and don't want to slowplay it - or have a flush draw.

I would still call hoping not to see 77 or A10.

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Originally Posted by ponyboy

Typically when I see something like that they either flopped two pair or a set and don't want to slowplay it - or have a flush draw.

I would still call hoping not to see 77 or A10.

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I started to say the same thing. Only thing is, isn't 2NL a breeding ground for slowplayers? They love to do that right? IDK. I know I'm calling all day though.

every time i've had a spot similar like this, they ended up making 2pair or a set. that's why i ended up folding

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Originally Posted by Deanglow

Meh I can't fold AJ+ here

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I think this is good... including the "meh"...

That being said, how much of the gambool u got in you?... You're stacking off to a massive over-shove w/ TPTK and a backdoor FD. This kinda sh!t can be exciting... but I believe you gotta do it consistently or it's gonna be the equivalent of constantly buying high and selling low when Murphy's Law kicks your @ss on the occasional ones you call. :shock:

oh... and this is based on no reads...

Theres no need to call here.

May be good, may not be, but why risk 110 bbs finding out?

without reads, calling is high variance. there are much better spots to stick it in. i doubt this is air. you may be ahead, but he probably has a big redraw. and, if you are behind, you are likely well behind. if your Q was a club, this is obviously a snap call.

fold. pot is too small and villain's bet is too big here.

can you be sure you are ahead 44% of the time w/o reads?

I'm folding this because of set miners at these stakes. Although very tempting indeed because of the redraw. You're not drawing dead to any hand...

I'm surprised so many of you are willing to call. You half to be right alot for this to be profitable. Right?

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Originally Posted by Pig_Vomit

I'm surprised so many of you are willing to call. You half to be right alot for this to be profitable. Right?

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44.7% of the time

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44.7% of the time

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How'd you reach this? What sort of range do you put villian on? I'd thought it would be fairly narrow but I suck at ranges.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pig_Vomit

Quote:

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44.7% of the time

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How'd you reach this? What sort of range do you put villian on? I'd thought it would be fairly narrow but I suck at ranges.

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No, I said you'd have to be right 44.7% of the time because this is the pot %

jeez, it's 2NL, this guy has any A or FD here. He doesn't have both because we hold the Ac. It's rarely a set because most guys don't fast play sets at this level. I call all day, with money in the pot already, like iopq says 44.7% of the time we need to be ahead here. We are ahead here a ton more often.

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Originally Posted by Pig_Vomit

Quote:

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44.7% of the time

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How'd you reach this? What sort of range do you put villian on? I'd thought it would be fairly narrow but I suck at ranges.

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range is fairly irrelevant here. we have no reads, and 2NL players may do this with a lot of stuff...or very little. its completely player dependent.

but, for the calculations, you have to look at stack sizes and pot size.

HERO starts with $2.49. villain has him "covered." so, when its "all in," HERO can win a max of ($2.49 X 2) + dead money. once you get that number, you divide the amount you have to call into it. here its $2.19, or the amount left in your stack after investing $.30 into the pot so far.

$2.19 / ($2.49 X 2) + dead money = 44%

that is the % of the time you need to win the hand to break even on the call. now, is TPTK strong enough with flush draws, sets, two pair hands, and a slim redraw to challenge this large bet for your stack? if he has a flush draw, he will win about 36% of the time. (too close to 44 for me at these stakes when a better opportunity will come along in another orbit.) if he has a set, we are well behind. therefore, i dont like it as a whole. i just cant see this being a bluff often enough to "pick off."

now, say its a river bet of $.45 into $2. you have TPTK and close the action. pot is $2.45 and you are putting another $.45 in to win $2.90. $.45/$2.90 is only 15% to break even.

i feel a lot better about TPTK in the latter situation.

honestly, i dont do these calculations with the timer running. but, it does get easy to estimate to about 10% or so what your odds are.

okay thanks for the explination guys. I was thinking it was a pokerstove thing.