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Semi-bluff gone bad
Live multi-table tournament. $150 buy-in (but I won my seat through a $60 satellite). 10,000 starting chips, 61 players.
We are about 1 1/2 hours into the tournament, blinds are 300/600, about 45 - 50 players remain.
Hero has about 13,000 in chips, and villian has close to 20,000. Everyone else at the table has anywhere between 4,000 and 25,000.
I moved to the this table approximately half an hour ago and have been playing very tight. I limped a few multi-way pots in position and folded after I missed the flop.
Villain has opened the pot for a 3x BB raise about 3 times in the last 10 hands and has picked up the pot with a continuation bet after the flop each time.
villain raises to 1800 from middle position, Hero is on the button with Qd 9d and calls. Both blinds fold.
Two players to the flop, pot is 4500
Flop: 2s Kd 4d
Villain bets 1800
Given his previous action I figured that his range was pretty wide. I'm guessing any pair, AJ, AQ, AK, and KQ are all possible holdings in this situation.
I decided to raise to 5,000. If my read is correct, this should pick up this relatively large pot most of the time. The only hands he isn't folding here are Aces, Kings, Dueces, Fours, AK, and maybe KQ.
Villain re-raises all-in.
My raise made the pot 11,300 and I had about 6000 left. So I would have to call 6000 to win 17,300, or just under 3 to 1. Right now I have to narrow his range to either AA, 22, 44, KK, AK, KQ, or an ace-high flush draw. I'm a 2-1 dog against a AA, AK, and KQ. I'm a 3 to 1 dog against 22, KK, and 44. And I'm a 4 to 1 dog against an ace high flush draw. And I think that the ace high flush draw is the least likely scenario here. So altogether I'm AT WORST, a 3 to 1 underdog. So it's definitely approaching a break-even play if I call, but probably somewhat +EV.
My questions:
Can I even think about folding here with pot odds, 6000 in chips remaining, and blinds at 300/600 and set to go to up to 400/800 in ten minutes?
Calling with Q9s in the first place was probably a weak play even when you consider the villains looseness, my tight image, and my position.
Was my re-raise the right play? As I said, given what I believe the villains range to be, this should be a VERY profitable move right?
I think the pre-flop call was bad, but my raise on the flop was probably the right play. But after that, chasing the flush is probably only slightly +EV. So with 10x the BB left, is this the right spot to gamble my tournament life?
EDIT: As I just read my own post, I think I answered this question. My raise to 5,000 was wrong since I should have known that I would have odds to call off my last 6,000. I should have re-raised all-in as that would give me the best chance of chasing out an ace-high flush draw and possibly KQ.
With 45 players left, what are my chances of climbing back into this thing with 10x the BB.
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No offense but I don't understand why you posted this hand. It looks like you already put the villain on a range, figured out your pot odds and equity against that range and you know what you have to do. What's your question?
edit: 0% chance the villain folds the A high flush draw or any king to any size flop raise
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You could consider floating since you have position. If he's weak he might check the turn where you can pick it up.
You can also push the flop if you're going to call a push anyway. He will be hard-pressed to call there with JJ or QQ.
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Courtesy of google:
"From flop to river, the probability of making:
A flush from a four-flush by the river (9 outs) - 1.9 to 1"
You're now getting just under 3:1 with your flush draw.