AA, turn pairs top card on flop ($27)

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08-20-2008, 08:04 AM
taipan168

AA, turn pairs top card on flop ($27)

This is 5th hand, no reads. Opp is a winning player across a very small sample size (so it's most likely not relevant). Shove or check behind here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero (t1500)
MP2 (t1280)
MP3 (t1270)
CO (t1500)
Button (t1470)
SB (t1630)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1720)
UTG+1 (t1630)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises to t80, MP2 calls t80, MP3 calls t80, 1 fold, Button calls t80, SB calls t70, 1 fold.

Flop: (t420) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t400, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Button folds, SB calls t400.

Turn: (t1220) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ????
08-20-2008, 08:14 AM
kevster

This hand interests me. I've not played the $27s so I don't know how retarded people are there but if there's any possibility that he has two hearts or even two spades, we want to bet right?

Equally, his play on the flop looks odd to me so I guess a weak jack is possible but can we get away from AA? I'd also add 77-TT in his range.

Considering all of that, I guess I'm shoving.
08-20-2008, 10:28 AM
TLR

I think the most likely hands are FD with 1 or 2 overs or a set.
I think I shove it
08-20-2008, 02:06 PM
drmcboy

yeah just put it in, if he was testing you with 55-TT he likes the non heart J and you would think he'd just have check shoved TP
08-20-2008, 03:22 PM
fjuanl

I dunno taipans lead is pretty strong (pot sized bet 5 handed=legit hand) so I'm not sure how likely an underpair is. I think this is KJ/AJ/22/44 way more than underpairs and flush draws. Assuming villian is actually a winning player, I don't think you get called with worse hands if you shove
08-20-2008, 03:50 PM
drmcboy

what is your river plan
08-20-2008, 07:11 PM
fjuanl

Fold to anything unless its like 1/3 of pot or smaller. Yeah im a nit
08-20-2008, 11:56 PM
drmcboy

you expect winning players to check call with AJ/KJ here?
08-21-2008, 08:13 AM
kevster

Quote:

Originally Posted by drmcboy

you expect winning players to check call with AJ/KJ here?

This was pretty much my thinking. No-one plays TPTK or second best kicker like that on that board do they?
08-21-2008, 08:32 AM
Fnord

Check behind and hope a heart falls on the river so you can fold in peace.
08-21-2008, 01:28 PM
fjuanl

Quote:

Originally Posted by kevster

Quote:

Originally Posted by drmcboy

you expect winning players to check call with AJ/KJ here?

This was pretty much my thinking. No-one plays TPTK or second best kicker like that on that board do they?

What does a winning player have here than? Is 9h7h more likely than AJ? Remember we have the Ah, so theres no one with a nut flush draw
08-21-2008, 02:36 PM
drmcboy

i have no idea, which is why I'm putting the money in. The pot is big and we have a good hand. This is also a horrible flop to c/c with a set imo.

Fnord you're just c/f all rivers? c/c no heart rivers seems like the worst line of all.
08-25-2008, 06:46 AM
revolvingiris

why did you only 4x preflop? The outcome may have been the same but its only 80 to call...I cant imagine he would slow play that flop if he had a 44,22,jj. Either way, anything he has here is a mistake on his part including a VERY loose FD. Could SB have a mid pocket and doesnt place you on a J? This is a tough situation to be in. I think you have to check here. The odds of him having ONLY a mid pocket pair doesnt seem logical. I would highly doubt hes on a flush draw. He could have J9-AJ and I cant seem to put him on anything other???
08-25-2008, 08:29 AM
taipan168

Quote:

Originally Posted by revolvingiris

why did you only 4x preflop? The outcome may have been the same but its only 80 to call...

I could have made it 100 but I wouldn't make it any more. $27/$38 players don't all call huge preflop raises this loose and I don't mind seeing the flop against 1-2 opps. I don't want to scare them all away.

Quote:

Originally Posted by revolvingiris

I cant imagine he would slow play that flop if he had a 44,22,jj.

You would be surprised how often people don't play like they should on a drawy flop...

Quote:

Originally Posted by revolvingiris

Either way, anything he has here is a mistake on his part including a VERY loose FD. Could SB have a mid pocket and doesnt place you on a J? This is a tough situation to be in. I think you have to check here. The odds of him having ONLY a mid pocket pair doesnt seem logical. I would highly doubt hes on a flush draw. He could have J9-AJ and I cant seem to put him on anything other???

You'd be surprised what they turn up with here. I would definitely include flush draws, mid pocket pairs and even missed overcards in this spot. That said, I agree that the second J on the turn wasn't exactly the best card in the deck for me.
08-28-2008, 05:18 AM
mukaka

if you guys are checking the turn here then you should fold the river to most bets regardless of the river card because you're still beat if the river's not an Ace.. if you think you're ahead why not move all-in instead of getting outdrawn?

checking and then calling the river is terrible..