Play first, ask questions later

I'm not always sure how to play a hand optimally at the time so I'll work it out afterwards. I need some help with this one. I tried to work out the maths and got close but stuck. I lost it all when I tried to post it :(

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($10.45)
Button ($9.80)
SB ($2)
BB ($10)
Hero ($11.40)
UTG+1 ($1.85)
MP1 ($2)
MP2 ($15.70)
MP3 ($4.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif.
Hero raises to $0.35, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.35, 1 fold, CO raises to $1, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.65, MP2 calls $0.65.

Flop: ($3.15) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (4 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $1.4, CO raises to $2.8, Hero raises to $10.4 (All-In)



I think preflop is fine as I get a shot at 15 times the bet in the CO's stack and I expect the MP2 to call here aswell, which makes it juicy. I dont see him raising after smooth calling my raise from UTG.

Im checking the flop because Im behind to an overpair at least. Theres no way Im calling the raise here, its push or fold. I got stuck trying to work out the maths for the EV of the push. At the time I thought, well Im 40% to win the pot with my ten outs ( although if Im up against 77 or 88 thats only 8 outs), theres a bunch of moneys in the pot already and that, combined with any FE I might have should make this a breakeven move, which is more profitable in the long run than folding and losing 10bb.

I tried to work out the equity of all scenarios after a push, ie: call,call /call,fold/ fold,fold and assign them likelihoods as a %. Obviously the most likely scenario is fold,call (CO)/ Basically if I get 2 callers im laughing but if I get one caller it looks to be slighly -EV.

But then Im stuck. How the hell do you work this one out properly?

This is actually a pretty easy shove so you played the hand fine. As for working it out you are complicating things WAY too much, especially if you are trying to work this out in game.

Specifically you should consider the following:

1) If you haven't already done so download Pokerstove. It is absolutely invaluable in helping determine your equity in certain situations.

2) Don't try to put your opponents on specific hand, but ranges instead. I am not sure if you are using a HUD, but if so use those stats where appropriate (i.e. you have a good amount of hands vs that person) and if not use your best judgement on the range of hands they would 3bet/call with. Barring a read you could probably use a range somewhere between 10-15% as I would think micro stakes players 3bet too much. Once you have this range you can now plug it into Pokerstove to see how your hand stacks up against their range. I have shown you what your equity against one and two villains that will play the top 10% of hands in this spot.

10% range with two callers

12,611,298 games 0.203 secs 62,124,620 games/sec

Board: 7s 8c 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.609% 48.18% 00.42% 5855604 51588.00 { 6c6d }
Hand 1: 25.696% 24.72% 00.97% 3004356 118335.00 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 25.696% 24.72% 00.97% 3004356 118335.00 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }

10% range with 1 caller

Board: 7s 8c 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.900% 63.20% 00.70% 80093 881.00 { 6c6d }
Hand 1: 36.100% 35.40% 00.70% 44865 881.00 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }

As you can see you are in good shape against the top 10% of hands. You could take this and narrow their ranges based on the post flop action, but at the micro stakes you are probably better off sticking with general guideline #3, which states:

3) If you have 10 or more outs to improve to a good hand (set/trips or better) you probably have enough equity against your opponent to allow you to push the action. Naturally this is a very general statement that will not apply in all situations, but will apply most of the time at the micro stakes.

Thanks a lot Gator, this really simplifies it for me. The old grey matter was beginning to hurt a bit :)

As to ranges, I tend to put opps on way too tight a range. For example here I would have thought 6%/8%. Ive got pokerstove now and using it I see that here even if I narrow the ranges to one 6 and one 8.7% then Im still in good shape. Now I'll be confident that this is an easy shove in future.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GatorJH

3) If you have 10 or more outs to improve to a good hand (set/trips or better) you probably have enough equity against your opponent to allow you to push the action. Naturally this is a very general statement that will not apply in all situations, but will apply most of the time at the micro stakes.

---

Im going to keep this is mind when I hit similar spots. If this is the case then it sure makes a lot of flop decisions clear and simple.

Once again, thanks!