unlucky player syndrome

Hi guys,

I do kinda ok - poor with NL Hold 'em. I've been playing online with play money for about 8 weeks and real money for about 4 weeks. I made ZERO money at cash games but have started to make money at SNG.

My problem is this: i get bad beats all the time and hardly ever hit the flop or even anything after it (i often win SNG by folding a LOT and slow playing what i do get)

My question is this: how the hell do i play against aggressive players who keep raising me out of pots? I very rarely hit anything anyway so i can't be aggressive back, they'll just call my AQ and pair the board with their 5.

It's my only stumbling block. Aggressive players, they win every time.

I've had some massive anger/frustration issues with this!

Yea, you have no idea how bad this is going to sound if you spend some time here and start reading.

You actually answered your own question in your post.

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Aggressive players, they win every time.

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You've already lost with this attitude.

u suk

muzzard, you're so supportive!

Poker takes a long time to really understand. Enjoy your time playing and getting better, and try not to care too much about your results. If you could have done something better, you learn, if not, chalk it up to variance.

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Originally Posted by dev

muzzard, you're so drunk *fyp*

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if i suck or 'suk' as that spastic faced guy said, then i'm totally open to that, but i do need more information than that.

this is my first post, so is mine a common experience?

cheers

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Originally Posted by wonderland

It's my only stumbling block. Aggressive players, they win every time.

I've had some massive anger/frustration issues with this!

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These statements aren't good. First you need to learn that getting bad beats isn't your only stumbling block. It isn't one at all. It just means you got your money in against an inferior hand and lost. It happens all the time. You shouldn't be pissed about it as you allude to with your last statement. You got the money in ahead and will win in those situations over the long run.

Your probably not playing as well as you think you are. Not even close. You aren't good. And neither am I. And you must realize this before you begin to get better. If you chalk it up to "being unlucky" or whatever then you will continue to lose and it will be because you suck and not because your unlucky.

If you truly want to improve it will take a long time and alot of work that at times will be dull or redundant. But you have come to the right place and have taken the first step. My suggestion is determine what you want to learn at this time, whether it be cash/ring games, SNGs, or MTTs. Next go to the subforum of whichever you chose. At the top of their will be a sticky saying something to the effect of "Digest/Tactics/etc". Go in there and read EVERY article. Then you can start a thread asking any questions you don't understand.

thanks for the constructive feedback fella.

i'll do just that!

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Originally Posted by wonderland

if i suck or 'suk' as that spastic faced guy said, then i'm totally open to that, but i do need more information than that.

this is my first post, so is mine a common experience?

cheers

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everyone thinks they're a winning poker player. those who aren't just "constantly run bad". Sound familiar?

also i lolled at "spastic faced guy"

ha, his face is pretty bad though aint it.

Ok i have taken your advice, looked more into SNG theory and i found that i was intuitively playing ok. Folding everything and playing hard when i had a hand.

Still though, i have to be firm and say that there are still these players that dominate and i can't figure them. No matter what i finally go in with against them as my chip stack dwindles, the board leaves me dry, i represent something and raise but they re-raise and if a showdown happens, they turn over the goods EVERY time.

After this initial post a played a few SNG games and had this very problem again. A chips stack leading monster hand bully in each game.

game one - went all in trying to double up with AQ. He calls (obviously) he turns over 3, 4 offsuit. The board comes down bla 3 bla 4 bla bla. He takes it. See what i mean?

game two - Same deal, chip leader who never loses a hand. I'm third place chip dog. I get AK, suited i think, and i decide to be aggressive against the aggressor with it. He re-raises me so i'm all in. Turns his cards over. Pair of queens. Hits a third queen on the board.

And this happens WAY more than is probable. I even watch other low stacks go in and i'm like, don't do it, he'll have the better hand. Coz i know the short stack aint getting lucky. Sure enough i'm right.

Edit: David Sklansky says - Your edge comes not from holding better cards, but from play in situations where your opponents would play incorrectly if they had your hand and you had theirs.

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Originally Posted by wonderland

ha, his face is pretty bad though aint it.

Ok i have taken your advice, looked more into SNG theory and i found that i was intuitively playing ok. Folding everything and playing hard when i had a hand.

Still though, i have to be firm and say that there are still these players that dominate and i can't figure them. No matter what i finally go in with against them as my chip stack dwindles, the board leaves me dry, i represent something and raise but they re-raise and if a showdown happens, they turn over the goods EVERY time.

After this initial post a played a few SNG games and had this very problem again. A chips stack leading monster hand bully in each game.

game one - went all in trying to double up with AQ. He calls (obviously) he turns over 3, 4 offsuit. The board comes down bla 3 bla 4 bla bla. He takes it. See what i mean?

game two - Same deal, chip leader who never loses a hand. I'm third place chip dog. I get AK, suited i think, and i decide to be aggressive against the aggressor with it. He re-raises me so i'm all in. Turns his cards over. Pair of queens. Hits a third queen on the board.

And this happens WAY more than is probable. I even watch other low stacks go in and i'm like, don't do it, he'll have the better hand. Coz i know the short stack aint getting lucky. Sure enough i'm right.

Edit: David Sklansky says - Your edge comes not from holding better cards, but from play in situations where your opponents would play incorrectly if they had your hand and you had theirs.

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I wouldn't be suprised to see you get less and less responses, because to some, it might come off like your not listening.

If you wen't AI w/ AK vs QQ you were the underdog, so it's more probable that you are going to loose that race in the long run. And you said you went AI w/ AQ? You must've been pretty short-stacked. Anyway, AQ vs 43o is about 65-35 for you to win, so you should expect to win that in the LONG RUN, not a few hundred hands, not a few thousand, in the LONG RUN.

As far as the "Bullies" or "Aggressors" There is a reason the chip leaders tend to be such.

And as far as them "turning over the goods EVERY time." That simply isn't the case. But our human selective memory says it is. And if it's happening 99% of the time, I'd have to side w/ muzzard. (Don't worry, I'm fully aware of the fact that I suck.)

Man, i see your 'you suck' and raise you 'i suck fucking shit'

I was just watching a video on Sklansky, some really good advice. Got pumped up and went in. Lost three $11 SNGs in a row (i've only ever lost one $11 SNG) and on the last one, same thing happened:

I'm short stack, there's a miracle big stack who can't lose. I need to go all in, bide my time, get K8 and think, well, this is as good a time as any. So i go all in. OBVIOUSLY Mr big stack calls. He has 8,6 so clearly he doesn't give a shit what i've got.

Because his ability to win was so predictable i actually shouted out loud, (after we both hit an 8 on the board) "watch it, watch the 6 come down!!!" and sure enough it did. Two pair 8s and 6s.

So i've just illustrated my point. These things happen and for some reason, it happens to some people more than others.

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Originally Posted by wonderland

Lost three $11 SNGs in a row

So i've just illustrated my point. These things happen and for some reason, it happens to some people more than others.

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11$ Sng's huh? How bigs the Bankroll? I'm guessing around 500 bucks?... Probably not.

It doesn't happen to some people more than others, not over the long run.
flip a coin three times maybe it comes up tails three times in a row. flip it 3,000,000 times, guess what, it's going to come up tails almost exactly 1.5 million times. It's just facts man. anyway, I don't wanna argue about it. Your right, the "Poker Gods" hate you.

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Originally Posted by wonderland

I was just watching a video on Sklansky, some really good advice. Got pumped up and went in. Lost three $11 SNGs in a row (i've only ever lost one $11 SNG)

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Your sample size must be HUGE.

My guess is you shouldn't be playing $11 S&G's as you obviously understand very little about poker. Do alot of reading and learning and alot less whining.

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Originally Posted by wonderland

Because his ability to win was so predictable i actually shouted out loud, (after we both hit an 8 on the board) "watch it, watch the 6 come down!!!" and sure enough it did. Two pair 8s and 6s.

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Proof for sure. This has NEVER happened to me. Eerie... like goose bumps all over eerie.

Wonderland, you really aren't picking up what everyone is laying down and it isn't doing you justice as a competent individual who is geniunely trying to learn (if that's the case obviously).

So I have some questions for you focused mainly at SNG play and poker in general.

1) What size is your bankroll? Don't say big enough or anything like that. Give me a number please. It will help because it should dictate how much you spend per SNG.

2) How many SNGs have you played? Approximate number is fine. More than 50, but less than 100? etc.

3) Do you understand ICM? If so, how deep is that knowledge?

4) At what point in a SNG do you generally revert to a push/fold strategy?

5) What is your goal with poker in the long run?

Okay that's all I have for now and they may be useless, but maybe not.

Anyways, to continue trying to help you. YOUR ACCOUNT IS NOT RIGGED!!!!!!!! The site you are playing on does not in any way, shape, or form have it out for you. They don't sit back in their chairs railing your SNGs and thinking, "Yeah yeah... Let's give him KK < AA again... That was fun!!!". This does not occur.

I'm sure you do lose more than others though. Is it because what I just said about your account being rigged is false?? Uhhh no... It's because you are less skilled than others. And don't say, "but that donkey called with 86o when he knew I had a hand!". This is good news. That means that in the long run (thousands of SNGs) you will win in that situation more often than not. That means that while you lost that time and busted that SNG, he just gave you some +ev, which is essentially MONEY!

So I suggest you stop thinking you are doomed to lose. That's not it. You probably just haven't developed the skills to win yet. And to be frank, I started out playing SNGs and have played quite a few and I probably only played 40-50 $11 SNGs, and that's not the place you want to start out in SNGs. A good majority of the players at the $11 will outclass you at this moment. But that can be changed if you quickly develop the right attitude (I say quickly because alot of FTRers here new players come in here telling how things are rigged etc very often and it's not a nice thing to deal with).

The thing that will help you the most and I suggest it now as a "MUST DO". I assume you save the hand histories to a folder. Well sit down and 1-table a SNG and then go to the "tournament converter" on this site (it's on the left side of the screen in the menu bar). Go in there and convert that tourney by browsing your folders and selecting the most recent hand history. Head to the SNG forum and create a thread asking for a tourney review. Alot of solid SNG players will look throughout the entire tourney (every move you made) and tell you how well you played (or the opposite) and point out numerous holes in your game (if they are there). You may find out that you aren't playing as well as you think, and remember, that is fine. Because once you become harsh on yourself you will only get better.

Good luck.

title delivers

Cool, thanks so much for taking the time, at last some mature feedback. Is it normal for people to be like this? (see above)

Ok, first some background about why i'm playing. While this seems like a digression, it's necessary to understand the framework of why someone is doing what they're doing.

I will admit that right now i'm not in a good position to learn poker. Here's the deal: i moved into an apartment a while ago and a girl lived there who made a living playing poker. She made it seem so easy, hadn't been playing that long so i figured: i'll have a piece of that thanks! So i started with play money and always increased my play money bank roll with a view to then going in with real money. I have great discipline so i was able to keep what i earned and leave the table over and over.

So i moved to Vancouer and have had a terrible time trying to get work and have decided as a graphic designer of 8 years that i'm not cut out for office work anyway.

So here's me with zero income and food and rent to pay sort of looking for work and hoping that i could just earn a tiny bit of money playing poker, at least cover some bills. Then when i get good i'd love to just keep it going until i can earn a living off it. Work when i want, have no boss, the dream right?! So that's my background. Thus, i can't really afford to be playing right now in all honesty, what am i gonna do, stick in a load of money to gamble with that i need for food? and not go APE SHIT when i get outdrawn?

So i get that i need to see the longer term bigger picture. I guess i should do it when i get a job to fund it until i can get consistent skills. I just never had any idea it would take more than a few solid months to be SOME profit, i literally can't make any. To date, i've won lost won lost and never made a penny overall. But, that said, my understanding is coming along.

Here are some concepts i'm starting to get into with playing online to give you an idea of what level i might be at, or not at:

I manipulate the length of time i take to bet in order to influence what another player might think i have. Checking quick when i hit trips and calling slowly when he raises my nut flush after the flop (then checking on the turn and river)

I slow play reeeeal good. People often have no idea what's happened until i've gutted them (on the rare time i do get a good hand)

I've been calling all the way to the river with second highest pair a few times and won because i'm developing a sense for when my paired 9 is just probably the best hand even though a J hit on the river. You know those times when all you have is a pair of 3s and you just know you can call?

Getting out of a good hand because it's not the best hand. Not getting too attached to it. I think this has been huge in keeping me going in SNGs. That said, my issue then becomes other people raising me out of some very good hands.

Your questions

Bankroll, yeah i didn't do the whole massive deposit to start me off. I started winning SNGs right away so figured that i might just build upwards from there. My first 20 games saw me make 45 dollars from $5 to $11 buy ins. And that's my FIRST SNG games. But then i lost it all in three games. Point taken, have a bigger bank roll.

So i played ten play money games to get to grips then about 25 real money games.

Independent Chip Model? hmmm, don't know much about it.

Push/fold. Umm... if my stack is piss and the other players are trying to force me out then i will go to push/fold then. Before that i fold about 90% of hands. Sneak it, zap someone by slowplaying, then get back to folding. It's when fuck all comes down over and over that i find myself in a low stack and there's 5 of us left. They're all folding and no one dares to put money out there. In short, when the blinds get to about 50/100 and my stack is about 900 chips.

That thing about the hand history sounds amazing. People will go through your whole game?! that sounds like a hell of a chore. I'd like to look into that though, sounds very useful.

Sorry if this post has gone on a bit, i appreciate your help!

*Quick note - I'm not an amazing player by any means, and not really all that good. Also I haven't played SNGs in a little while, but I was decent at them when I played them. So whatever you read here, if anyone does, take it lightly until verified by other sources*

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Originally Posted by wonderland

So i get that i need to see the longer term bigger picture. I guess i should do it when i get a job to fund it until i can get consistent skills. I just never had any idea it would take more than a few solid months to be SOME profit, i literally can't make any. To date, i've won lost won lost and never made a penny overall. But, that said, my understanding is coming along.

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Just a little info here. You don't have to start out with a massive roll to get to the higher stakes, it will obviously just take longer. The reasoning behind this is because, while poker involves a huge amount of skill there is also a certain amount of "luck". And while you can play amazing consistently, you can still lose over and over again for a good amount of time. This is called variance. And it happens and there is no way around it. You will go on a heater and win 90% of your last 20 sngs or something, then negative variance will hit and you will lose 80% of your next 20 sngs (obviously just pulling the numbers out of my ass).

So, whatever stakes you chose to play you MUST make sure you have a deep enough bankroll to sustain when variance hits. That is, you want to be able to keep playing the same level comfortably even when you get sucked out on in your last 5 SNGs because you have a deep enough BR. For SNGs, I think the general consensus is somewhere between 20-50 buyins. Less buyins for the lower levels, and more buyins and you get to higher buyin SNGs because the competition gets better.

To go of course really quick. Making a significant amount of money at poker will take time. There is a strong learning curve. Not to mention if you are building a roll correctly you just won't be getting into big enough games quick enough. You can essentially build a roll from nothing in poker. I have done it before going from $0 to $400 in SNGs, and my current roll went from $50 to $2600 in a little over 4 months. But you start out SLOOOOOOW. That is unless you have not only the money to play in the bigger games, but the skill as well.

I highly suggest that you look for a job, as I doubt you will be able to sustain yourself on poker at this time. And you probably won't be able to for a few months, maybe longer depending on how much time and effort you put into it.

So look at your BR and divide it by 20-30 and see what you get. My thoughts is you shouldn't be playing $5.50 SNGs until your BR is at least >$100, and that is cutting it close. And this is of course if you have the disipline to drop down when you go on a bad run. That is to say you play $5.50 with a $100 roll and if you lose a few and the roll is at say $80 you drop down to $1.20 or so SNGs until back up at $100 or higher.

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I manipulate the length of time i take to bet in order to influence what another player might think i have. Checking quick when i hit trips and calling slowly when he raises my nut flush after the flop (then checking on the turn and river)

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Not sure how to feel on the manipulating time thing. I know in some spots a quick bet is percieved one way and then at times another etc. So if you can be pretty sure you know how they will percieve it and then mislead them then that's okay. However, make sure you don't fall into doing the same thing everytime and developing a tell this way that better players will pick up on and then pick you off with.

As far as the "checking quick when I hit trips and calling slowly when he raises my nut flush after the flop (then checking on the turn and river)", I don't really like this at all, for easily explainable reasons. In general, without a read that a player will do the betting for you and fold if you do the betting yourself, then you should be betting your monsters (aka flushes, sets, etc) because you want to get value out of these hands. You don't want to flop a set of 8s and then check/call the flop, then check the turn and have him check behind, then you check the river again. You are getting only 1 street of value with what is most likely the best hand. Instead you want to take a line that gets the most money in when you have the goods, and this will differ depending on the preflop action, board, and player you are against.

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I slow play reeeeal good. People often have no idea what's happened until i've gutted them (on the rare time i do get a good hand)

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See above. The only thing I can add is telling you the reasons you bet. When you bet, you want to accomplish a few things, and in different situations your goal differs. In general you want to (1) get better hands to fold...(2) Get worse hands to call....(3) protect your hand. So this leads to the logic that you would be betting your monsters for value because so many worse hands call, while at the same time you are betting your complete air (only in good spots... Do NOT go bluff crazy thinking I have to bet here because it's total air) because you have no value if you get to a showdown and so many better hands fold. So with a monster that you consider worthy of a "slow play" be careful because this could be why you are getting drawn out on. You hit TPTK and decide to slowplay and your opponent turns two pair or whatever.

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I've been calling all the way to the river with second highest pair a few times and won because i'm developing a sense for when my paired 9 is just probably the best hand even though a J hit on the river. You know those times when all you have is a pair of 3s and you just know you can call?

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Be careful with this as well. I'm not saying never call without the absolute goods. However, your main goal in a SNG is to survive. You don't want to bleed off chips with second or third pair when your opponent is telling you that you are beat. And just because you call him down and he shows you the 10% of the time you aren't doesn't mean that it was a great play. As far as your paired 9s being good when a J hits on the river, that's fine if you feel the J didn't hit your opponents range. You will essentially put your opponent on a range of hands you think he might play in the instance he is playing. If you feel that in that range he doesn't show up with a J very often and you beat most the rest of his range then that's fine.

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Getting out of a good hand because it's not the best hand. Not getting too attached to it. I think this has been huge in keeping me going in SNGs. That said, my issue then becomes other people raising me out of some very good hands.

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One thing I would like to say here. You do not have to have a hand to bet. I know that sounded stupid and your like duh!! But seriously, alot of the times you will be making a play based on the board, your opponent's tendancies, how he has played the hand, etc. And you would do this no matter what cards you hold. And remember that this goes both ways. They won't always have a hand when they make a play. Doesn't mean call without anything, but don't be eager to toss away very strong hands just because your opponent is saying your beat. Take into consideration all the information available (state of SNG, board, opponent, etc) because making your decision.

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Independent Chip Model? hmmm, don't know much about it.

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You will need to read up about this. I also encourage you to go looking online this very moment for SNGWizard, and download the free trial. Then after every SNG you play load that SNG into SNGWiz, then review it. Essentially, what SNG wiz does is analyze your push/fold game (which btw should come into play when you have around 10bbs left. This doesn't mean you have to have 10 or less as I will sometimes shove a hand that I dont' want to play postflop with 12-13 etc).

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Push/fold. Umm... if my stack is piss and the other players are trying to force me out then i will go to push/fold then. Before that i fold about 90% of hands. Sneak it, zap someone by slowplaying, then get back to folding. It's when fuck all comes down over and over that i find myself in a low stack and there's 5 of us left. They're all folding and no one dares to put money out there. In short, when the blinds get to about 50/100 and my stack is about 900 chips.

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This is really close. The general rule is 10bb. So if blinds are 50/100 and your stack is 1,000 you should either push a hand preflop or fold preflop. Reason being is if you make, or call, a stand 3-4xbb raise you are pretty much committed to any flop, so you should increase your fold equity by raising more preflop. (ex. You have 10bb and standard raise to 3bb preflop with KQs. You get one caller. The pot is now 7.5bbs. The flop totally misses you. Well you are getting around 2:1 odds to call a shove from your opponent or shove at the pot yourself. However, that is gonna feel like shit when you miss. So just get in pre and see how it goes from there, like I said also increasing your fold equity.

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That thing about the hand history sounds amazing. People will go through your whole game?! that sounds like a hell of a chore. I'd like to look into that though, sounds very useful.

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Yeah. Whatever poker site you are using you should have an option to save the hand histories to your computer. Make sure you are doing this and know where you are saving to. Then go to the tourney trimmer and trim it and put it in a thread. And it really isn't that time-consuming, especially if you look over a few. You can post it in the SNG forum and plenty of good players will review. It's hands down the most helpful thing you can do as a SNG player imo. Also another good thing is to go find good SNG players trimmed tournies and review them yourself seeing if you would make the same play. Look for Taipan68, GatorJH, Bjsaust, and a few others.

Sorry if this post has gone on a bit, i appreciate your help!

thanks for all that advice!

i shall digest it all in time. For now i realise that i need to buy about 25-50 buy ins before i can start a bank roll.

i still stick to my point that the chip leader always turns over the best cards and i refer to Gus Hansen. Tell me he doesn't have strange poker luck.

But i also get that if you play consistently well you should win more than you lose. The bad beats will come but your good playing should even out at the end of each month.

cheers!

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Originally Posted by wonderland

thanks for all that advice!

i shall digest it all in time. For now i realise that i need to buy about 25-50 buy ins before i can start a bank roll.

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You can start a bank roll from next to nothing. Please don't get the idea that because you want to play the $11 S&G's you should stick in 25-50 times that amount. Because the result will be the same...you will go broke.

Invest what you feel comfortable in losing, because that very well may be what happens at first. But poker is a learning process and that is just the price you pay. I suggest you put in $50 to $100 and play within the 25-50 buy in rule.

I suggest the same as Duce. Just because you have 50 buyins for $11 SNGs does not mean you are ready to play them. You need to have the skill and experience, and the sample size to prove you are a winner at the lower buyin SNGs.

And as I said you don't need to throw in a couple of hundred dollars to get started if you are even remotely new to poker. Yeah of course you won't be able to jump into the bigger games asap, but you aren't ready for those games. So you only need to invest a small amount to start. It will just take longer, but it will be worth it because you will gain valuable experience you will need to improve.

most hands miss the flop

I really doubt this topic is real.. sigh

Dude... I'm not sure if this has been said already because all these posts are just too damn long to read:
"DON"T BE RESULTS ORIENTED!!!!!"

So the fuck what, you lost with KK to 27.... it does not really matter. You'll win a majority of the time.

HAHAHAHA.... you think you're rigged....ummmm, nope.

And no, everything will not always balance out at the end of the month by any means. During the month of July, I lost well over 25 buy-ins! That doesn't mean that I was playing much worse; its called Variance. Variance will be positive or negative at any moment. The point is that it'll even out in a million years... :D.

The point is to get a FIRM grasp of all the concepts in No-limit holdem. Actually, I'd suggest learning Limit holdem first because you probably know little about pot odds, expected value, etc.

Just stick with it.... absorb all the other shit on the forums.... be patient...and learn to appreciate this game in time.